Girls Basketball Class 3A District Prediction and Regional Projections Week 8

Girls Basketball Class 3A District Prediction and Regional Projections Week 8

I have decided to change how I am doing my articles for Class 3A Boys & Girls.  Instead of doing a weekly preview I am going to run thru each District and talk about which teams are still in the playoff hunt which are eliminated and my pick to who wins each District, (Will also rank the top 4 teams in each Distrct).  I will start doing this in Class 1A & 2A next week in the Projection articles as well.  After the District Predictions I will do a Regional Projection using the latest CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index. 

Metro-Confluence-Lower Platte

1. Yuma

2. St. Mary’s Academy

3. Faith Christian

4. Manual

This District is a bit down this year especially with most of the top Metro teams moving up to Class 4A.  Yuma who moves from 2A up to 3A is currently my pick to win the district.  Yuma will be challenged by St. Mary’s Academy in the District Tournament, but Yuma will be the favorite to win this District.  Faith Christian is also a regional contender sitting at #28 in the Seeding Index.  They are on the bubble and will need a solid end to the season.  Manual (36) and Prospect Ridge (40) are on the wrong side of the bubble and need a winning streak at some point to try and push for a top 32 seed.  Stargate School and Lotus School are eliminated from Playoff Contention. 

Playoff Contenders: Yuma, St. Mary’s Academy, Faith Christian, Manual, Prospect Ridge

Eliminated: Stargate School, Lotus School

3A Frontier

1. Bennett

2. Jefferson

3. Platte Canyon

The 3A Frontier has traditionally not been one of the strongest Districts and that does not change this season.  Of the 8 teams in the district just 3 remain in regional contention and just 1 team sits inside the top 20.  Bennett is the favorite to win this District and sit at #15 in the seeding index.  I am not sure who steps up and challenge Bennett for the league crown.  Jefferson is the only other team sitting inside the top 32.  Jefferson sits at #29 and would be on the bubble.  IF they can finish in second in the district, they probably have a shot at regionals.  Platte Canyon is the final team to mention.  Platte Canyon sits at #41 in the seeding index and are barely holding onto hope.  They need a big run to end the season to get closer to #32.  Lake County, KIPP Collegiate, Bruce Randolph, Sheridan, and Pinnacle are all eliminated.

Playoff Contenders: Bennett, Jefferson, Platte Canyon

Eliminated: Lake County, KIPP Collegiate, Bruce Randolph, Sheridan, Pinnacle

Intermountain/SPL

1. Centauri

2. Ignacio

3. Crested Butte

4. Montezuma-Cortez

The IML/SPL District looks to be top heavy with two teams sitting inside the top 10 of the Seeding Index.  Centauri and Ignacio seem to be the two front runners to win this District.  Centauri is my pick to win the District and they sit at #4 in the seeding index.  They have a good shot at a top 4 seed.  Ignacio is also in good position for an at-large home game but need to keep winning for that shot.  Crested Butte is inside the top 32 of the Seeding Index at #31.  Crested Butte is on the bubble so winning will be key.  They have a big stretch of games this week.  Montezuma-Cortez is the final regional contender to mention.  Cortez sits at #34 and would be the 2^nd team out.  They need a good February to try and sneak into the final spot.  Bayfield is eliminated from playoff contention.

Playoff Contenders: Centauri, Ignacio, Crested Butte, Montezuma-Cortez

Eliminated: Bayfield

Black Forest/Santa Fe

1. Peyton

2. Fountain Valley

3. Thomas MacLaren

4. Rocky Ford

The smallest district in Class 3A that features just 4 teams.  All 4 teams are also still in the hunt for a regional berth and that should make for a fun district tournament and fun end of the season race.  Peyton is currently #1 in the seeding index and are hoping to stay in the top 3 and snag a top 3 seed.  Peyton is my pick to win this District.  Fountain Valley appears to be the main challenger sitting at #10 in the seeding index.  Fountain Valley has just 1 loss but are still a mystery team.  They have not played the toughest schedule so we will learn more about Fountain Valley as they play.  Thomas MacLaren (37) and Rock Ford (38) both sit on the outside looking in.  They need to have strong finishes to the season to get into the regional tournament.

Playoff Contenders: Peyton, Thomas MacLaren, Fountain Valley, Rocky Ford

Eliminated: None

3A Patriot

1. Platte Valley

2. Brush

3. Highland

4. Strasburg

The Patriot league looks to be a very competitive race this season and looks like it will come down to the end of the regular season to figure out the District Tournament seeding.  Platte Valley is my pick to win the district.  Despite their record of 5-6 they have not lost to a 3A opponent this season and have a quality win over Vanguard.  Platte Valley will be challenged by Highland, Brush, and Strasburg.  Those 3 teams all sit inside the top 20 of the Seeding Index and should challenge Platte Valley for the league crown.  Estes Park (22) and Liberty Common (26) also will be in solid contention to reach the regional tournament.  They need to have a solid end to their season to avoid slipping into the bubble region.  Timnath is the final team to mention.  Timnath sits at #33 in the Seeding Index and would be the first team out.  They will need to get above .500 to probably get into regionals.  Frontier Academy and Wellington are eliminated from Playoff Contention. 

Playoff Contenders: Platte Valley, Brush, Highland, Strasburg, Liberty Common, Estes Park, Timnath

Eliminated: Frontier Academy, Wellington

Tri-Peaks

1. C.S Christian

2. Vanguard

3. Ellicott

4. St. Mary’s

The toughest District in Class 3A is the Tri-Peaks District.  This is a loaded district with 8 of the 12 teams in contention for a regional spot.  5 teams in the Tri-Peaks are currently inside the top 16 and possibly could see a team from this District get an at-large berth to host at regionals.  C.S Christian is my pick to win the Tri-Peaks.  They are undefeated and are playing good basketball they will have a tough schedule to end the year.  Ellicott, Vanguard, and St. Mary’s all are capable of upsetting the top team and this will make for a very competitive District Tournament.  Buena Vista and Woodland Park are also regional contenders and sit inside the top 22 of the Seeding Index.  They are in very good position to reach regionals.  Salida and Banning Lewis are the final two teams to mention, and both sit inside the top 32 of the Seeding Index.  Avoid bad losses will be key for both teams and both should push for a regional spot.  Rye, James Irwin, Atlas Prep, and Florence are all eliminated from playoff contention. 

Playoff Contenders: C.S Christian, Ellicott, St. Mary’s, Vanguard, Buena Vista, Woodland Park, Salida, Banning Lewis

Eliminated: Rye, James Irwin, Atlas Prep, Florence

3A Western Slope

1. Grand Valley

2. Olathe

3. North Fork

4. Cedaredge

The Western Slope looks to be a very competitive district as well.  7 of the 8 teams are in the hunt for a regional spot and 4 of the 8 teams are sitting inside the top 32 of the Seeding Index.  Grand Valley is my pick to win the District.  They have been playing well since their 0-3 start (playing mostly 4A & 5A teams). They are looking like the Elite 8 team they were a season ago.  Grand Valley sits at #7 in the seeding Index.  Olathe, North Fork, and Cedaredge all appear to be challengers for the District crown.  All 3 teams sit inside the top 22 of the seeding index.  Gunnison has fallen outside the top 32 this week and sit at #35.  They will need a strong end to the season to get back into the top 32.  Roaring Fork (39) and Meeker (43) are the final teams to mention.  Both like Gunnison need a strong end of the season push.  My guess is when these three teams play each other you will see teams eliminated. 

Playoff Contenders: Grand Valley, Olathe, North Fork, Cedaredge, Gunnison, Meeker, Roaring Fork

Eliminated: Aspen

Mile High/Foothills

1. SkyView Academy

2. Dawson School

3. Windsor Charter

4. Lyons

The Mile High/Foothills District has been somewhat of a mystery.  No true top team but they have 3 teams sitting inside the top 32 of the Seeding Index.  This District might not host a regional unless a team steps up and make a run.  SkyView Academy is my pick to win the district.  Dawson School Lyons and Windsor Charter appear to be the main challengers to SkyView Academy.  Machebeuf is on the fringe of Regional contention but need to grab some important wins.

Playoff Contenders: SkyView Academy, Dawson School, Windsor Charter, Lyons, Machebeuf

Eliminated: Clear Creek

Boys Basketball Class 3A Regional Projections and State Predictions

For my projections I am using the CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index.  The District Champions are picked from the District Predictions above.  If you are a District Champion ranked in the top 16 of the Seeding Index you will automatically host a regional.  Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your District. 

Class 3A

• District Seeding will be done by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index (50% Maxpreps & 50% RPI).  Maxpreps and RPI will run through Districts.
• District Winners (8) advancing to the 32-team state bracket.  District Champions are guaranteed a top 8 (host slot) as long as they are in the top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index after Districts.
• Remaining 24 teams are filled in by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts.
• Seeding criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts.  Seed 9-24 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the FIRST ROUND ONLY.  Teams may be moved one spot up or down.  Teams 25-32 may be moved based upon geography and league matchups.
• First two rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in the quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total)
• Teams will not be reseeded prior to the final week-state championship (Final 8)
• Top 8 teams will advance.  Class 2A Great 8 will play a Consolation Bracket. 

District Tournament Winners

Metro/Confluence/Lower Platte: Yuma

Frontier: Bennett

Intermountain/SPL: Centauri

Black Forest/Santa Fe: Peyton

Patriot: Platte Valley

Tri-Peaks: C.S Christian

Western Slope: Grand Valley

Mile High/Foothills: SkyView Academy

District Champions and Regional Hosts: ()=Seeding Index

Metro/Confluence/Lower Platte: Yuma (3)

Frontier: Bennett (15)

Intermountain/SPL: Centauri (4)

Black Forest/Santa Fe: Peyton (1)

Patriot: Platte Valley (11)

Tri-Peaks: C.S Christian (2)

Western Slope: Grand Valley (7)

Mile High/Foothills: SkyView Academy (23)

At-Large Host: Ellicott (5)

Bracket- District matchups will be avoided in the first round.  8 Regional winners qualifying for state.  State will not be re-seeded! And play a Modified Consolation Bracket, if you lose Thursday you will not play Friday!

Region 1

*#1 Peyton vs #32 Windsor Charter

#16 Strasburg vs #17 St. Mary’s Academy

Region 2

*#8 Bennett vs #25 Dawson School

#9 St. Mary’s vs #24 Salida

Region 3

*#5 Ellicott vs #28 Faith Christian

#12 Fountain Valley vs #21 Cedaredge

Region 4

*#4 Centauri vs #29 Jefferson

#13 Brush vs #20 Woodland Park

Region 5

*#2 C.S Christian vs #31 Crested Butte

#15 Buena Vista vs #18 Olathe

Region 6

*#7 Platte Valley vs #26 Liberty Common

#10 Vanguard vs #23 SkyView Academy

Region 7

*#6 Grand Valley vs #27 Banning Lewis

#11 Ignacio vs #22 Estes Park

Region 8

*#3 Yuma vs #30 Lyons

#14 Highland vs #19 North Fork

*= Regional Host

My State Qualifier Picks

Here are the 8 teams I think make it to the Elite 8 and the matchups.  This will change as the bracket changes.  This is still early.

#1 Peyton vs #9 St. Mary’s

#4 Centauri vs #5 Ellicott

#2 C.S Christian vs #7 Platte Valley

#3 Yuma vs #6 Grand Valley