Class 1A Girls Basketball Breakdowns

Girls Basketball Class 1A Regional Projections and State Predictions

Girls Basketball Class 1A Regional Projections and State Predictions

For my projections I am using the CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index.  I am going to be predicting the District Champions and may just give a quick reason as to why I picked each District Champion.  If you are a District Champion ranked in the top 16 of the Seeding Index you will automatically host a regional.  Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your District.

I will update this every day, so come back daily to see the updates. (Updated 2/22 @12pm)

Class 1A

  • District Seeding will be done by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index (50% Maxpreps & 50% RPI).  Maxpreps and RPI will run through Districts.
  • District Winners (8) advancing to the 32-team state bracket.  District Champions are guaranteed a top 8 (host slot) as long as they are in the top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index after Districts.
  • Remaining 24 teams are filled in by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts.
  • Seeding criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts.  Seed 9-24 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the FIRST ROUND ONLY.  Teams may be moved one spot up or down.  Teams 25-32 may be moved based upon geography and league matchups.
  • First two rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in the quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total)
  • Teams will not be reseeded prior to the final week-state championship (Final 8)
  • Top 8 teams will advance.  Class 1A Great 8 will play a Consolation Bracket. 

District Tournament Winners

District 1: Dove Creek

Dove Creek continues to dominate this District.  My only concern for Dove Creek is their weak schedule to end the year.  Nucla is a near lock to make it to regional sitting at #19.  De Beque is closer to the bubble but in solid shape at #26.  North Park has also jumped into the top 32 and sit at #30.  They have improved their odds of making regionals with some clutch wins.  North Park vs Caprock on Thursday could decide if North Park stays in the top 32. 

District 2: McClave

District 2 is going to be a slugfest.  3 teams still remain inside the top 5 and all 7 teams are sitting inside the top 32.  McClave is my pick to win this District but Granada and Kit Carson will challenge them.  McClave, Granada, Kit Carson, Cheraw, Eads, and Cheyenne Wells are all locks for regionals.  Wiley is the only team on the bubble at #28.  Wiley lost in the Quarterfinals of the District Tournament and will await to see if they drop out of the top 32.

District 3: Springfield

Springfield remains my pick to win the District.  They have the head to head win over Kim/Branson but this District has thrown some surprises as of late.  Springfield and Kim/Branson are locks for regionals both sit inside the top 16.  La Veta also has a very good shot at reaching regionals.  They sit at #23 in the Seeding Index and their win in the pigtail game probably gets them into regionals.  South Baca is on the bubble at #31.  South Baca will face Springfield in the Semifinals and a loss means they will sweat things out and see if they drop below #32. 

District 4: Briggsdale

Briggsdale remains my pick to win the District they have played a tough schedule along with Fleming.  Both teams are locks for regionals and will be forces to reckon with.  Prairie has moved into the top 32 and sit at #29.  They are on the bubble and will face Fleming in the Semifinals of the District 4 Tournament. 

District 5: Stratton

Stratton has hit a tough part of their schedule but still remain my pick to win this District.  Stratton, Idalia, and Hi-Plains are locks for regionals.  Otis took a big step also to reaching regionals defeating Flagler.  Otis jumped up to #20 and are a near lock for regionals.  Arickaree also improved their shot at regionals when they upset Hi-Plains in the Quarterfinals.  Arickaree moved to #21 and are also a near lock for regionals.  Flagler fell the most dropping from inside the top 20 to #22.  Flagler is still a near lock for regionals but with no games remaining they must await their fate.  Lone Star is the final team to mention.  They sit at #34 and are eliminated from the District Tournament.  Their only hope is the 2 teams in front of them fall out of contention. 

District 6: Sangre De Cristo

Sangre De Cristo is my team to beat, and I think the only true challenger is Sierra Grande.  Sierra Grande is a near lock at #24 but need to make sure they reach the District Championship to avoid slipping further.  Centennial and Creede both sit outside the top 32.  Both would need to make a great run in the District Tournament to have a shot at regionals.

District 7: Kiowa

Kiowa is the team to beat in District 7.  I have not seen anyone really rise to challenge them in this district.  Genoa-Hugo would be the main challenger and they sit at #25.  If they do finish second they will make it to regionals.  Deer Trail, Hanover, and Pikes Peak Christian all sit outside the top 32.  Making a run in the District Tournament may be the only way they make it to regionals.

District 8: Flatirons Academy

The #1 team in 1A and their only loss to a 4A team.  I don’t see anyone else in this district pulling the upset.  Flatirons Academy is the heavy favorite to win the 1A title.  Belleview Christian is a near lock for regionals at #18.  A solid showing gets them to regionals.  Rocky Mountain Lutheran sits at #27 and are on the bubble same goes with Front Range Baptist at #32.

District Champions and Regional Hosts: ()=Seeding Index

District 1: Dove Creek (7)

District 2: McClave (1)

District 3: Springfield (12)

District 4: Briggsdale (3)

District 5: Stratton (9)

District 6: Sangre De Cristo (13)

District 7: Kiowa (8)

District 8: Flatirons Academy (2)

First Four Out

Hanover (33), Lone Star (34), Caprock Academy (35), Deer Trail (36)

Bracket- District matchups will be avoided in the first round.  8 Regional winners qualifying for state.  State will not be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!

Region 1
*#1 McClave vs #32 South Baca
#16 Kim/Branson vs #17 Cheyenne Wells
Region 2
*#8 Sangre De Cristo vs #25 Wiley
#9 Granada vs #24 Sierra Grande
Region 3
*#5 Kiowa vs #28 Front Range Baptist
#12 Cheraw vs #21 Arickaree
Region 4
*#4 Dove Creek vs #29 De Beque
#13 Idalia vs #20 Nucla
Region 5
*#2 Flatirons Academy vs #31 Prairie
#15 Hi-Plains vs #18 Belleview Christian
Region 6
*#7 Springfield vs #26 Genoa-Hugo
#10 Kit Carson vs #23 La Veta
Region 7
*#6 Stratton vs #27 Rocky Mountain Lutheran
#11 Fleming vs #22 Flagler
Region 8
*#3 Briggsdale vs #30 North Park
#14 Eads vs #19 Otis

*= Regional Host

Note: 25-32 can be moved to help with Geographical Considerations. A few changes were made to help with distance.  South Baca was moved to face McClave, Genoa-Hugo was moved to face Springfield, Prairie was moved to face Flatirons Academy, Front Range Baptist was moved to Kiowa. If we are only avoiding League Matchups and not District matchups as stated in the bulletin I have De Beque facing Dove Creek that is the closest school and I have Wiley facing Sangre De Cristo.  This is just my opinion to help the bottom 8 with travel.

My State Qualifier Picks

Here are the 8 teams I think make it to the Elite 8 and the matchups.  This will change as the bracket changes.

#1 McClave vs #9 Granada

#4 Dove Creek vs #5 Kiowa

#2 Flatirons Academy vs #10 Kit Carson

#3 Briggsdale vs #6 Stratton