Class 1A Girls Basketball District Predictions Week 5

Class 1A Girls Basketball District Predictions Week 5

Holiday break is complete, and we move into January.  Lots of basketball still to be played and I plan on updating all my District Predictions for Class 1A thru 3A this week and will continue to update weekly.  I will be using the Districts from the CHSAA bulletin which is how team will qualify for regionals.  I also see they have reverted to 2019 rules to qualify for regionals and state.  I will post that below.

How to Qualify for Regionals and State

8 District each qualify 2 or 3 teams to three regionals.  The three regionals are posted below

Region 1	Region 2	Region 3
District 1 & 8	District 4, 5, 7	District 2, 3, 6

The #1 and #2 seeds from Districts 1 and 8 will be paired, while the #1, #2, and #3 seeds from Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 will advance to a regional site.  In Region 2 (4,5,7) and Region 3 (2, 3, 6), the nine qualify teams will be seeded by RPI avoiding any previous district matchups.  In Region 1, District 1 and 8 #1s will play each other districts #2.  Region 1 receives 2 state qualifiers, Region 2 & 3 receive three state qualifiers each.

After the Final 8 teams have been determined the teams will be re-seeded base on the following: The eight regional winners advance to the state tournament where they will be seeded by seeding criteria approved in a committee, made up of administrative representatives.  The committee may use the following criteria to seed the final pairings: final RPI, previous district matchup’s, head-to-head competition, and common opponents.

A consolation bracket will be played in the Great 8.

Class 1A Girls Basketball District Predictions Week 3

Going back to the 2019 ways to qualify for Regionals they have altered my District Predictions a small amount.  This is my first update of the Class 1A Girls since preseason.

District 1 (Just 2 teams Qualify for Regionals)

1. North Park

2. Dove Creek

3. Nucla

4. Caprock Academy

5. De Beque

A few small changes from my preseason predictions to this week.  The biggest change is I have Dove Creek as my District 1 Tournament Champions.  Dove Creek is 7-1 including solid wins over Center, Rangely, and North Park.  Dove Creek has a huge test on 1/6 against Ignacio and should be a great game.  North Park slides into my pick to finish in second.  North Park is 3-2 overall with quality losses to Dove Creek and Lone Star.  North Park does have a solid win over Genoa-Hugo.  North Park opens 2022 with a huge game against 4-1 Caprock Academy.  Nucla stays as my pick to finish in 3^rd but just miss out on regionals.  Nucla is 5-5 overall with quality losses to Mancos and North Park.  Nucla is still searching for their first quality win of the season.  Nucla opens 2022 against Ridgway then will face Dove Creek on 1/14.  Caprock Academy is off to a surprise start at 4-1 but I still have them as the #4 team.  Caprock Academy lone loss it to Cedaredge by 30 and Caprock Academy is still searching for a quality win as well.  Caprock Academy will have a shot at a quality win when they travel to face North Park on Friday.  De Beque wraps up District 1 at 1-2.

My predictions for District 1

League Champion: Dove Creek

Regional Qualifiers: Dove Creek & North Park

District 2

1. McClave

2. Kit Carson

3. Wiley

4. Cheraw

5. Cheyenne Wells

6. Eads

7. Granada

District 2 gets 3 team into regionals and will compete against District 3 & 6 at Regionals.  We have a few changes after my top 2 teams in the District and I expect changes to keep happening as we move deeper into the season.  McClave stays as my pick to win the District 2 Tournament.  McClave is 5-1 with their only loss to Elkhart KS who is undefeated.  McClave picked up solid wins over Kit Carson and Springfield to close out the season.  McClave opens 2022 against Cheraw and 2A Wiggins.  Kit Carson also stays as my pick to finish in second.  Kit Carson is 4-1 on the season after dropping a game to McClave.  Kit Carson best win is over Idalia by 1 and they open 2022 against a improved Cheyenne Wells team.  Kit Carson has a very tough schedule to open 2022 and we will learn a lot about this team.  Wiley moves up from #4 to #3 and get the last spot for Regionals.  Wiley is 4-1 to open up the year.  Wiley has quality wins over Hi-Plains and Holly.  Wiley will be tested with their first game of 2022 when they face Kit Carson.  This is a big game to tell how good Wiley will be.  Cheraw moves up to the #4 spot.  Cheraw is 3-3 with quality wins over Center and ECA.  Cheraw also has quality losses to 2A Soroco and Kim/Branson.  Cheraw I think is a team that could push for a top 3 spot.  Cheraw opens 2022 against McClave then La Veta and we will see how they perform against a top 5 team in McClave.  Cheyenne Wells has moved up from #7 to #5.  Cheyenne Wells is having a much improved year at 4-1.  Cheyenne Wells defeated Kim/Branson, South Baca, and Genoa-Hugo and could be the dark horse to push for a top 3 spot.  Cheyenne Wells opens 2022 against Kit Carson and then Springfield and both games will give us a good look at Cheyenne Wells.  Eads falls from #3 to #6 this week. Eads opened the season with 6 straight losses.  Eads did pick up a 48-7 win over Walsh to end 2021 and they are a team that I think can bounce back in 2022.  Eads opens 2022 with a huge game against Granada then Walsh the next day.  Granada rounds out District 2.

My predictions for District 2

League Champion: McClave

Regional Qualifiers: McClave, Kit Carson, Wiley

District 3

1. Springfield

2. Kim/Branson

3. South Baca

4. La Veta

5. Manzanola

6. Walsh

7. Primero

District 3 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 2 & District 6.  District 3 could be very top heavy with the top 3 teams somewhat pulling away, but I do think a 4^th team could at least challenge for one of the 3 spots.  Springfield is my new pick to win the District 3 tournament.  Springfield moves up from #3 to #1.  Springfield is 5-1 to start the season including solid wins over Sierra Grande and Wiley.  Springfield lone loss is to McClave.  Springfield opens 2022 against Cheyenne Wells and this is a huge test for both teams.  Kim/Branson stays as my pick to finish second in District 3.  Kim/Branson is 6-1 to open the season with their lone loss coming to Cheyenne Wells.  Kim/Branson does have quality wins over Cheraw, Crowley County, and Hoehne.  Kim/Branson opens 2022 against Primero before a huge test against Cotopaxi the next day.  South Baca slides from #1 to #3 this week.  South Baca is 4-1 to open the season but they lack a true quality win.  South Baca did lose to Cheyenne Wells by 2.  South Baca opens 2022 against Walsh before being tested by Wiley on 1/15.  La Veta is 2-5 to open the season and I think could challenge the top 3.  La Veta will have some improvement to do but they do have quality losses on the season.  La Veta opens 2022 against Manzanola and is a must win for either team.  Manzanola come in at #5.  Manzanola is 1-3 and they were blown out in all 3 losses.  Manzanola did beat Primero by 30 and they look to avenge their loss to La Veta from earlier in the year.  Walsh and Primero are both without wins and round out District 3. 

My predictions for District 3

League Champion: Springfield

Regional Qualifiers: Springfield, Kim/Branson, South Baca

District 4

1. Briggsdale

2. Fleming

3. Haxtun

4. Merino

5. Caliche

6. Prairie

7. Weldon Valley

8. Longmont Christian (If they have a team)

District 4 will get 3 teams into regionals.  District 4 will compete against District 5 & 7 at Regionals.  District 4 will be one of the toughest leagues this season and the battle for the top 3 should be very interesting.  Briggsdale is my pick to win the District 4 tournament and must be considered the early favorite for the Class 1A Title.  Briggsdale has quality wins over Sedgwick County, Idalia, Lone Star, and Flatirons Academy.  Briggsdale is on a role but improving weekly is key.  Briggsdale opens 2022 agaisnt Weldon Valley and a key matchup against Stratton on 1/8.  Fleming holds onto the #2 spot.   Fleming is 5-0 to open the season with key wins over Haxtun, Caliche, and Gilpin County.  Fleming will kick off 2022 with a bang with key matchups against Merino, Kit Carson, Lone Star, and Stratton.  Fleming will get tested within the first 2 weeks of 2022.  Merino slides into the #3 spot this week.  Merino is 6-0 including quality wins over Akron, Haxtun, Simla, and Lone Star.  Merino will open 2022 against Fleming and will have a shot at a key upset win.  Haxtun slides into the #4 spot and would miss regionals.  Haxtun is 2-4 to start the season but a brutal schedule is the cause of that.  Haxtun has quality losses to Fleming (By 4), Merino (by 1), Sedgwick County, and Holyoke.  Haxtun opens 2022 against Yuma and Prairie.  Caliche moves up to the #5 spot and is an early dark horse team.  Caliche is 2-3 to start the year but have 2 quality losses to Fleming and Haxtun (by 8).  Caliche is young and will continue to improve.  Caliche opens 2022 against 2A Sedgwick County then a key league matchup against Weldon Valley on Saturday.  Prairie comes in at #6.  Prairie is 2-3 but did fall in their head-to-head matchup against Caliche.  Prairie has shown improvement this season especially with their 50-16 win over Weldon Valley.  Prairie opens 2022 against Haxtun and this will test Prairie.  Weldon Valley rounds out the bottom of District 4 at 1-4.  I am unsure if Longmont Christian has a Girls team this season.

My predictions for District 4

League Champion: Briggsdale

Regional Qualifiers: Briggsdale, Fleming, Merino

District 5

1. Lone Star

2. Stratton

3. Idalia

4. Arickaree/Woodlin

5. Genoa-Hugo

6. Hi-Plains

7. Flagler

8. Otis

9. Deer Trail

10. Bethune

District 5 gets 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 4 & 7 at regionals.  Lone Star stays as my pick to win the District 5 tournament.  Lone Star is 5-2 to open up the season with losses to Merion and Briggsdale.  Lone Star does have quality wins over Arickaree/Woodlin, Hi-Plains, and Idalia.  Lone Star will open 2022 against Front Range Baptist before a huge test against Fleming on 1/13.  Stratton moves into the #2 spot this week.  Stratton is 3-0 to start the season including solid wins over Idalia and Akron.  Stratton is somewhat still of a mystery team but they open 2022 against Arickaree/Woodlin and Briggsdale and should give us a solid insight on this team.  Idalia falls into the #3 team and last team into regionals.  Idalia is 3-4 to open the season but their loses are quality losses.  Idalia does have a quality win over Cheyenne Wells.  Idalia opens 2022 against an out of state opponent before traveling to face league opponent Hi-Plains on Saturday.  Arickaree/Woodlin holds onto the #4 spot.  Arickaree/Woodlin will hope to challenge for a top 3 spot this season.  Arickaree/Woodlin is 4-3 to open the season but their best win is over Genoa-Hugo and Prairie in OT.  Arickaree/Woodlin opens 2022 against Stratton then Rocky Mountain Lutheran.  I think we will learn about Arickaree/Woodlin after this weekend.  Genoa-Hugo rounds out the top 5.  Genoa-Hugo is off to a rough start at 1-4 but all are quality losses.  Genoa-Hugo lone win is over Flagler.  Genoa-Hugo open 2022 against Calhan and then Byers the next night.  Coming in at #6 is Hi-Plains.  Hi-Plains is 2-2 to open the season with their best win coming against Eads.  Hi-Plains is still somewhat a mystery and they open 2022 against Idalia.  This is a huge game for both teams.  7 thru 10 I feel are very much in the air.  I have Flagler at #7.  Flagler is 2-4 but their win over Deer Trail gives them a boost.  Flagler also lost by just 1 to Genoa-Hugo.  Otis comes in at #8.  Otis is 1-5 to star the season but have played a difficult opening schedule.  Deer Trail and Bethune out the rest of District 5 but after the opening weekend we could see some changes.

My predictions for District 5

League Champion: Lone Star

Regional Qualifiers: Lone Star, Stratton, Idalia

District 6

1. Sangre De Cristo

2. Cotopaxi

3. Sierra Grande

4. Centennial

5. Antonito

6. Moffat

7. Lake City

District 6 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete with District 2 & 3 at regionals.  Sangre De Cristo stays as my pick to win District 6.  Sangre De Cristo is currently 5-1 to open the season with quality wins over Cheraw and Dove Creek.  Sangre De Cristo lone loss is to 2A Sargent who is a quality opponent.  Sangre De Cristo opens 2022 against Primero before a huge test against Cotopaxi and Del Norte.  Cotopaxi is my pick to finish in second.  Cotopaxi is 5-2 to open the season with their losses coming to South Park and ECA.  Cotopaxi best win is over Moffat and Crested Butte.  Cotopaxi will be searching for their first quality win when they open 2022 against Sangre De Cristo and Kim/Branson.  Sierra Grande holds onto my #3 spot this week.  Sierra Grande is 2-4 to open the season but have quality losses to Springfield, South Baca, Hoehne, and Kim/Branson.  Sierra Grande did beat John Mall by almost 30 but are lacking a quality win.  Sierra Grande opens 2022 against Lake City before facing Trinidad and Moffat the following week.  Centennial moves into the #4 spot.  Centennial is 4-1 to open the season with their lone loss to Center.  Centennial could be a surprise team especially if they get hot from 3-point range.  Centennial best win comes over 3A James Irwin, Antonito, and La Veta.  Centennial will have to take care of the ball better but could be a dangerous team.  Antonito is my pick to finish in 5^th.  Antonito is 1-2 to open the year with losses to Dove Creek and Centennial.  Antonito did beat Lake City.  Antonito open 2022 against Centennial and will look to avenge that loss.  Moffat comes in at #6.  Moffat is 3-3 to open the season but 2 wins come against Cripple Creek.  Moffat lacks a quality win, but they have a shot when they host Sierra Grande on 1/14.  Lake City rounds out the District 6.

My predictions for District 6

League Champion: Sangre De Cristo

Regional Qualifiers: Sangre De Cristo, Cotopaxi, Sierra Grande

District 7

1. Kiowa

2. Simla

3. Elbert

4. Evangelical Christian

5. Hanover

6. Miami-Yoder

7. Pikes Peak Christian

8. Cripple Creek

District 7 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 4 and 5 at Regionals.  Kiowa stays as my pick to win the District 7 tournament.  Kiowa is 3-0 to open the season and their best win comes over Dayspring Christian.  Kiowa opens 2022 against Calhan and Deer Trail.  Kiowa won’t truly be tested till they face Elbert on 1/20 then Cheyenne Wells on 1/22.  Simla is my pick to finish in 2^nd.  Simla is 2-3 to open the season but all 3 losses are quality losses.  Simla also has a quality win over Peyton.  Simla opens 2022 play against Byers.  Elbert is 4-1 to open the season and my pick to finish in 3^rd.  Elbert lone loss it to Byers.  Elbert has a quality win over Peyton.  Elbert opens 2022 against Hanover and Deer Trail but their first big test won’t come till Kiowa on 1/20.  Evangelical Christian comes in at #4.  ECA is 4-2 on the season with quality losses to Fleming and Cheraw.  ECA also has a quality win over La Veta, Belleview Christian, and Cotopaxi.  ECA has a huge test to open 2022 when they host Flatirons Academy.  Hanover comes in at #5.  Hanover is 2-2 but have a quality win over Moffat to end 2021.  Hanover opens 2022 against Deer Trail but the big test will come on 1/12 against Elbert.  Miami-Yoder, Pikes Peak Christian, and Cripple Creek do not have wins to open 2021 and will be interesting to see how these three teams go into 2022. 

My predictions for District 7

League Champion: Kiowa

Regional Qualifiers: Kiowa, Simla, Elbert

District 8 (Only 2 teams get to Regionals)

1. Flatirons Academy

2. Belleview Christian

3. Denver Waldorf

4. Shining Mountain

5. Rocky Mountain Lutheran

6. Front Range Baptist

7. Mile High Academy

8. Denver Jewish Day

9. Denver Academy of Torah

10. Beth Eden

District 8 gets just 2 teams into Regionals and will face District 1 at Regionals.  District 8 has been tough to evaluate early on with teams playing non CHSAA schools or playing non-quality opponents.  Flatirons Academy is the clear cut favorite to win District 8.  Flatirons Academy is 4-1 to open the season.  Flatirons Academy lone loss is to Briggsdale.  Flatirons Academy has quality wins over Gilpin County, Grand Valley, and Strasburg.  Flatirons Academy opens 2022 against Loveland Classical and Evangelical Christian.  Belleview Christian stays as my #2 pick mainly due to most District 8 teams not playing or playing minimal games.  I honestly do not know much about District 8 for girls as most teams don’t have schedules.  This is a District I will have to revisit again next week and learn more.

My predictions for District 8

League Champion: Flatirons Academy

Regional Qualifiers: Flatirons Academy, Belleview Christian

Regional/State Tournament Predictions

I am going to put the teams down that I think make it to regionals and then give my predictions on which teams make it to the State Tournament.  As we get deeper, I will give some seeds with RPI but for now this is just my predictions.

Region 1

District 1: Dove Creek, North Park

District 8: Flatirons Academy, Belleview Christian

State Qualifiers: Dove Creek & Flatirons Academy

Region 2

District 2: McClave, Kit Carson, Wiley

District 3: Springfield, Kim/Branson, South Baca

District 6: Sangre De Cristo, Cotopaxi, Sierra Grande

State Qualifiers: McClave, Kit Carson, Sangre De Cristo

Region 3

District 4: Briggsdale, Fleming, Merino

District 5: Lone Star, Stratton, Idalia

District 7: Kiowa, Simla, Elbert

State Qualifiers: Briggsdale, Fleming, Merino