Class 3A Boys Basketball Breakdown

Class 3A Boys Basketball District Predictions Week 7

Class 3A Boys Basketball District Predictions Week 7

We are cruising thru the regular season and most teams are starting to kick off their league/district schedules.  I know I have not updated Class 3A since the beginning of the season but I will start weekly starting this week.  Remember in Class 3A Seven District/Leagues qualify two teams automatically into the State Bracket, with the remaining 18 teams determined by RPI.

Confluence/Colorado

1. Eagle Ridge Academy

2. Englewood

3. DSST-Green Valley Ranch

4. Fort Lupton

5. DSST-Conservatory Green

6. Aurora West Prep

7. Strive Prep

8. Arvada

9. DSST-College View

10. William Smith

11. DSST-Byers

The Confluence/Colorado should be a very tough District.  Eagle Ridge Academy stays as my pick to win the Confluence/Colorado District.  Eagle Ridge Academy is 7-1 with their lone loss coming to 5A North East Warriors.  My second-place pick is Englewood.  Englewood is 6-2 to start the season with their losses coming to St. Mary’s and Colorado Academy (by 2).  Englewood looks to be a real threat to win this District and will be tough for any team.  DSST-Green Valley ranch slides into the #3 spot but I think will have a shot at Regionals.  DSST-Green Valley ranch is 6-4 to start the season and in 2022 they have not lost a game.  DSST-Green Valley has back-to-back tough games upcoming then move into league play.  Fort Lupton is my pick to finish 4th and I also think a team who can compete for regionals.  Fort Lupton is 6-3 and have started 2022 with a 3-game winning streak.  Fort Lupton opens league play tonight against Arvada.  Two other teams to quickly mention for a shot at regionals is DSST-Conservatory Green and Aurora West College Prep.  Both teams are close to .500 and we will see how they perform going down the stretch. 

My predictions for Confluence/Colorado

League Champion: Eagle Ridge Academy

Regional/State Automatic Qualifiers: Eagle Ridge Academy & Englewood

At-Large Region/State Contenders: Fort Lupton, DSST-Green Valley Ranch, DSST-Conservatory Green

Frontier

1. DSST-Montview

2. Denver West

3. Pinnacle

4. The Academy

5. Middle Park

6. Bennett

7. Arrupe Jesuit

8. Jefferson

9. Sheridan

10. Bruce Randolph

11. KIPP Collegiate

DSST-Montview stays as my pick to win the Frontier District. DSST-Montview is currently 5-5 to start the season but they have played a difficult schedule.  DSST-Montview losses come to University, Manual, Kent Denver, Resurrection Christian, and Faith Christian.  Nearly every loss is to a top 10 teams, and most are by less than 5.  DSST-Montview opened league play with back-to-back 10+ point wins with their best win over Pinnacle in 2022.  Denver West moves into my #2 spot.  Denver West is 11-3 to open the season.  Denver West will only play a handful of teams from this league until the tournament.  The one win that sticks out to me is their 71-49 win over Middle Park.  They did only beat Jefferson by 10 on Monday but I think Denver West should be in the contention for the automatic berth.  Pinnacle slides into the #3 spot.  Pinnacle is 7-2 with losses to Eagle Ridge Academy and DSST-Montview.  Pinnacle has a key win over The Academy this past Tuesday and will have another big matchup on 1/29 against Middle Park.  Pinnacle will be in contention for a regional berth.  The Academy moves into the #4 spot.  The Academy is currently 5-4 but a big upset win over Kent Denver shows the potential this team has.  The Academy has a key game this Saturday against Arrupe Jesuit.  Coming in at #5 is Middle Park.  Middle Park is still a team in contention for a regional berth.  Middle Park is 8-2 with losses to Denver West and Moffat County.  In 2022 Middle Park has won 4 of their first 5 games.  Middle Park will be tested on 1/27 by Vail Christian and then a league matchup against Pinnacle will determine a lot for seeding.  Bennett and Arrupe Jesuit are two teams on the fringe of staying in the hunt for a regional berth.  Bennett is 4-6 and Arrupe Jesuit is 5-5.  Both teams will need to have big February to stay in the hunt for a regional berth.

My predictions for Frontier League

League Champion: DSST-Montview

Regional Automatic Qualifiers: DSST-Montview & Denver West

At-Large Regional/State Contenders: Pinnacle, The Academy, Middle Park, Bennett, Arrupe Jesuit

Intermountain

1. Centauri

2. Alamosa

3. Pagosa Springs

4. Bayfield

5. Montezuma-Cortez

Centauri stays as my pick to win the Intermountain League.  Centauri is currently 9-0 with their best win of the season coming against St. Mary’s last weekend.  Centauri now has to be considered a team to watch for a state title in Class 3A.  Centauri has a non-league matchup against Vanguard this Friday before jumping back into league action against Pagosa Springs.  Alamosa stays as my pick to finish second.  Alamosa is 8-3 to start the season with 2 of their losses coming in early December.  Alamosa in 2022 has started hot but a 2-point loss to Buena Vista this past Tuesday does damper some of the momentum they had.  Alamosa will face Bayfield on the road this Friday and then return home to face Montezuma-Cortez on Saturday.  Two very important games before back-to-back games against Pagosa Springs and Centauri.  Pagosa Springs is the final team to mention in the IML.  Pagosa Springs is 7-4 overall and I think a contender for a regional berth.  Pagosa Springs started 2022 with an upset win over Sanford but fell by 4 to Alamosa last weekend.  Pagosa Springs will get Montezuma-Cortez Friday and then look to knock off Centauri on Saturday.

My predictions for Intermountain

League Champion: Centauri

Regional Automatic Qualifiers: Centauri & Alamosa

At-Large Region/State Contenders: Pagosa Springs

Metro

1. Kent Denver

2. Colorado Academy

3. Manual

4. Lutheran

5. Faith Christian

6. Machebeuf

7. Prospect Ridge

8. Stargate School

9. Jefferson Academy

10. Peak to Peak

11. SkyView Academy

Doug Wright updated his Metro Predictions last week.  No update yet this week but once changes are given, I will update the Metro for now I am going with his predictions he posted last week. 

My predictions for Metro

League Champion: Kent Denver

Regional Automatic Qualifiers: Kent Denver & Colorado Academy

At-Large Region/State Contenders: Manual, Lutheran, Faith Christian, Machebeuf, Prospect Ridge

Patriot

1. Sterling

2. Resurrection Christian

3. Eaton

4. Highland

5. University

6. Platte Valley

7. Brush

8. Strasburg

9. Estes Park

10. Liberty Common

11. Frontier Academy

12. Valley

The Patriot is always one of the tougher districts and once again will have plenty of talented teams.  I think 9 of the 12 teams can compete for a regional/state tournament spot.  Sterling stays as my pick to win the Patriot League.  Sterling is 10-1 currently with their lone loss coming to a out of state team.  Sterling has picked up quality wins over The Academy, Denver Christian, Manual, Strasburg, and University.  Sterling has to be considered a state title threat again this year.  Sterling will be tested this Friday when they host Platte Valley.  Resurrection Christian moves into the #2 spot.  Resurrection Christian is 5-3 currently but have opened 2022 with a bang winning 4 straight games including solid wins over DSST-Montview, Eaton, and Erie.  Resurrection Christian will hope to continue things when they host University this Friday.  Eaton moves into the #3 spot.  Eaton is currently 9-2 and both losses have come in 2022.  Eaton lost to Kent Denver by 3 and Resurrection Christian by 7.  Eaton did bounce back after their last loss beating Estes Park.  Eaton next test will be on 1/25 against Strasburg.  Highland comes in at the #4 spot.  Highland is currently 9-1 on the season.  Highland lone loss of the year is in OT to Eaton.  Highland has quality wins over University, Strasburg, and Heritage Christian.  Highland won’t face another Patriot team until the District Tournament.  Highland should cruise until their matchup against Denver Christian on 1/29.  University is 9-3 currently with 2 of their 3 losses coming in 2022 against Brush and Sterling.  University has a huge test against Resurrection Christian this Friday and could shake up the standings once again.  Platte Valley is 8-2 and they have opened 2022 winning 3 of their first 4 games.  Platte Valley opened league play with a tough 2-point win over Brush and now face Sterling this Friday.  This should be a good indicator of how good Platte Valley is.  Brush, Strasburg, and Estes Park are 3 teams I think are in contention for a regional berth still.  Brush is 4-5 and I think if they can get above .500 I think get in.  Brush will need to avoid being beat by the bottom half of the Patriot League.  Strasburg is 3-7 currently and looked to be in some trouble with qualifying for Regionals.  Strasburg then upset Limon and must be thrown back into the conversation.  Strasburg will need a very strong February to push for a top 32 spot in the RPI.  Estes Park is 6-5 currently.  Estes Park will probably need to finish better than Strasburg and Brush to get into regionals and they face Strasburg this Friday.  This is a huge game for both teams.

My predictions for Patriot

League Champion: Sterling

Regional Automatic Qualifiers: Sterling & Resurrection Christian

At-Large Region/State Contenders: Eaton, Highland, University, Platte Valley, Brush, Strasburg, Estes Park

Tri-Peaks

1. St. Mary’s

2. C.S Christian

3. Salida

4. Buena Vista

5. Manitou Springs

6. Banning Lewis

7. Woodland Park

8. Florence

9. Ellicott

10. La Junta

11. Vanguard

12. Lamar

13. James Irwin

The Tri-Peaks to open this year is very confusing.  I think the top 5 teams are above the rest of the league but after that things get very interesting, but I still believe 6 to 7 or more teams could push for a regional spot.  St. Mary’s is still my pick to win the Tri-Peaks league.  St. Mary’s is currently 10-1 with their lone loss coming on the road to Centauri.  St. Mary’s bounced back after that loss beating Manitou Springs by 19 on the road.  St. Mary’s should cruise the rest of the way but I will keep my eye on the Banning Lewis, Vanguard, and Florence games.  Moving into the #2 spot is C.S Christian.  C.S Christian is 8-3 currently with losses in 2022 coming to St. Mary’s and University (by 8).  C.S Christian has taken over as the #2 team with wins over Manitou Springs and Salida.  C.S Christian will have a big test on 1/27 when they face Woodland park and another big test on 2/2 when they face Buena Vista.  My #3 team stays as Salida.  Salida is currently 7-4 but in 2022 have won 3 of their first 5 games.  Salida has key wins in 2022 against Manitou Springs and Florence.  Salida has a big game against Woodland Park this Friday and then Banning Lewis next week.  Manitou Springs comes in at the #4 spot.  Manitou Springs is currently 5-6 but they played a tough schedule so far this year.  Manitou Springs in 2022 beat Banning Lewis but look for them to get on a hot streak.  Manitou Springs will face Ellicott this Friday but the next big test for Manitou Springs will be on 1/27 against Vanguard and then Florence on 2/2.  Buena Vista comes in as my #5 team.  Buena Vista is 6-3 currently.  Buena Vista started 2022 with solid wins over Banning Lewis and Vanguard but an interesting loss to Ellicott does show they can be beat by the bottom 6 in league.  Buena Vista did bounce back nicely this week beating Alamosa but now must refocus when they travel to La Junta.  From here on things are very confusing with teams beating each other and no one team looking completely dominate.  Coming in at the #6 spot and in contention for a regional spot is Banning Lewis.  Banning Lewis is currently 5-5.  Banning Lewis has a nice win over La Junta last week and now look for another big win over Florence this Friday.  Banning Lewis still has plenty of question marks, but this Florence game will answer some.  Woodland Park comes in at #7.  Woodland Park is 6-6 currently and look to be the team to take over at the #6 spot but a 59-54 loss to Vanguard has risen some questions.  Woodland Park will look to get back on track but a very tough 3 game stretch is upcoming with games against Salida, C.S Christian, and Banning Lewis.  Ellicott, Florence, La Junta, and Vanguard all look to be teams who could compete for a regional spot.  All 4 teams have at times proven to be contenders, but I think the next 3 weeks could limit this list down. 

My predictions for Tri-Peaks

League Champion: St. Mary’s

Regional Automatic Qualifiers: St. Mary’s & C.S Christian

At-Large Region/State Contenders: Salida, Manitou Springs, Buena Vista, Banning Lewis, Woodland park, Ellicott, Florence, La Junta, and Vanguard

Western Slope

1. Aspen

2. Moffat County

3. Coal Ridge

4. Basalt

5. Roaring Fork

6. Grand Valley

7. Gunnison

8. Delta

9. North Fork

First, I would like to give a shoutout to CP Martinez.  He has provided me some great insight into the Western Slope League and his information is key to these predictions.  Aspen stays as my pick to win the Western Slope League.  Aspen seems to be a cut above the rest of the league currently at 8-0.  Aspen did not play the toughest schedule so winning out could be key to keeping a top 5 seed in regionals.  Aspen kicks off league play this week against North Fork.  Aspen should be tested by Vail Christian on 1/26 but I don’t see Aspen being challenge in League play till February.  Moffat County moves into my #2 spot.  Moffat County is currently 6-4 and 3 of their 4 losses come to 4A teams.  Moffat County did pick up a solid win over Middle Park last week.  Moffat County size will be a key factor to them finishing in the top 3.  Moffat County will open league play against Coal Ridge tonight and this is a huge game and has big implication for district seeding.  Coal Ridge is my pick for 3rd place.  Coal Ridge is 5-5 currently and have lost 4 games in 2022 already.  Coal Ridge lacks size and lean on their top 2 scorers to carry the offense.  Coal Ridge will look to bounce back from a tough loss to Vail Mountain.  Coal Ridge will face Moffat County and Basalt in back-to-back weeks, and this should test how far Coal Ridge can go.  Basalt comes in at #4.  Basalt is currently 4-4 and have only played one game in 2022.  Basalt beat North Fork this week and face a young but tough Roaring Fork team this Friday.  Basalt is in position to challenge for a regional spot but will need some key wins down the stretch to stay in position.  Friday game will give us a key look at this Basalt team.  Roaring Fork, Grand Valley, and Gunnison I think are 3 teams to watch to see if they can stay in contention for a regional spot.  All 3 have losses but if they can have big February’s I think could push for a regional spot.

My predictions for Western Slope

League Champion: Aspen

Regional Automatic Qualifiers: Aspen & Moffat County

At-Large Region/State Contenders: Coal Ridge, Basalt, Roaring Fork, Grand Valley, Gunnison

State Tournament Predictions

Next week I will give a much bigger look towards Regional and State.  For now I am giving the 8 teams I think make it to the State Tournament. 

Elite 8 State Tournament Teams

St. Mary’s

Sterling

Colorado Academy

Manual

Aspen

Kent Denver

Centauri

Resurrection Christian