Class 2A Girls Basketball Breakdowns

Class 2A Girls Basketball District Predictions Week 10

Picture by OTSportChek (Holyoke vs Merino)

Class 2A Girls Basketball District Predictions Week 10

About two weeks left of the regular season and things are really heating up in most leagues and races to improve your RPI.  I will be touching a ton more on seeding for the District Tournaments.  If I am wrong, please AD’s or coaches let me know so I can fix the mistakes.  My understanding is if teams withing a district all play each other it’s seeded by league standings if not then it’s seeded by RPI.  Seeding will be key in most district tournament to try and push for an automatic berth.  Here is a quick reminder of how-to quality for Regionals; Each District qualifies 3 teams to regionals, with the remaining 8 teams determined by the next highest RPI scores.

District 1

Automatic Regional Qualifiers Predictions:

1. Sanford

2. Sargent

3. Del Norte

Regional At-Large Contenders:

Center

Monte Vista

The District 1 Tournament will be seeded by the league standings/head to head matchups.  Currently Sanford and Sargent are tied atop the standings and that tie will be broken tomorrow night.  Del Norte is a lock for a top 3 seed but more than likely will be the #3 seed.  Monte Vista must face Sargent still but look to be in the #4 spot with Center in the #5 spot.  Custer County will more than likely be the #6 seed.  With the current set up I am still picking Sanford to win the District 1 Tournament and Sargent to finish in the second place spot.  Del Norte continues to improve weekly, and I think finish in 3rd place.  Del Norte might need a 3rd place finish to get into regionals.  Del Norte sits at #30 in the RPI so are on the bubble.  Center looks to be in a good shape in terms of an at-large berth to regionals.  Center sits at #20 in the RPI and a win over Del Norte this Saturday (non-league game) should keep their RPI in the top 20.  Center ends the year against Sangre De Cristo and Sanford both will help Center RPI regardless of the result.  Monte Vista is on the bubble.  Monte Vista sits at #31 in the RPI and have 4 games remaining.  3 of those 4 games are must win games and Monte Vista could boost their RPI when they face Sargent.  Whoever from this District does not finish in the top 3 will be RPI watching.  Seeding will be very important as well in the District Tournament.

RPI for District 1

#2 Sanford, #7 Sargent, #20 Center, #30 Del Norte, #31 Monte Vista, #42 Custer County

District 2

Automatic Regional Qualifiers Predictions:

1. Sedgwick County

2. Holyoke

3. Akron

Regional At-Large Contenders:

Yuma

Wray

Wiggins

Burlington

District 2 I believe will be seeded by league standings/head-to-head.  All the teams from this District besides Burlington play in the Lower Platte League but Burlington does play every team.  Holyoke is on pace to be the #1 seed but they must face Wiggins tomorrow and then Akron on Friday.  If Holyoke wins both they are the #1 seed in the District Tournament.  Sedgwick County is not a close of locking up the #2 spot yet.  Sedgwick County still must face 4 district opponents still.  Sedgwick County will face Wray tomorrow and Burlington on Friday.  Sedgwick County then will face Yuma on 2/15 & close the season against Akron on 2/18.  The #3 seed is very much up in the air.   Wray and Wiggins currently have just 2 loses in league with Akron and Yuma sitting with 3.  Yuma has just 2 league games remaining, Wray and Akron have 3 league games remaining, and Wiggins has 5 district/league games remaining.  Plenty still to figure out and if things happen just right, we could have a tie for the #3 seed still after the next two weeks.  Seeding will be extremely important for the District Tournament.  I am sticking with Holyoke as my district 2 winner.  Sedgwick County remains my pick to finish in second place.  I am giving the final Automatic Regional spot to Akron.  I think head-to-head wise Akron will get either the #3 or #4 seed and I think are peaking at the right time.  Wiggins sits with the next highest RPI at #13.  Wiggins still has 5 games remaining all 5 will be tough so their RPI could still go up or down.  I think if Wiggins wins at least 2 of their final 5 they should be in good position.  Wray sits at #21 in the RPI and in good position to reach regionals.  Wray has 4 games remaining all will be tough games but the game to keep an eye on is against Wiggins on Saturday.  Yuma is also in a good position to reach regionals with the #22 RPI.  Yuma has 3 games remaining and winning the game against Caliche on Friday could be key to keeping their RPI up.  Burlington is the one team in the most trouble of missing regionals.  Burlington has battled tough all season but have come up short.  Burlington has 4 games remaining and probably need to win 3 of those 4 to boost their RPI.  Burlington sits at #37 in the RPI, and I am not sure if they are close enough to push for a spot.  Winning is key for Burlington.

District 2 RPI

#1 Holyoke, #3 Sedgwick County, #11 Akron, #13 Wiggins, #21 Wray, #22 Yuma, #37 Burlington

District 3

Automatic Regional Qualifiers Predictions:

1. Cedaredge

2. Mancos

3. Ignacio

Regional At-Large Contenders:

Olathe

District 3 features two different league and I think they would seed by RPI maybe factor head-to-head if they played.  If seeded by RPI today Cedaredge would be your #1 seed and I think are far enough ahead to secure that spot.  Mancos would be the #2 seed and they are 9 spots ahead of Olathe.  Olathe currently would be the #3 seed and Ignacio would be the #4 seed.  The important part is we still have some time to play and RPI could change.  Cedaredge is my pick to win the district 3 tournament.  Cedaredge has played well since their loss to Soroco, and I think will be the favorite to land the crown.  Mancos is also playing tough basketball currently. Mancos defeated Ignacio on 2/1 and played Sargent tough losing by just 2 points.  Mancos, I believe will be a lock for the #2 seed.  Ignacio is still my pick to finish in 3rd place and grab the final automatic spot.  Ignacio sits at #27 in the RPI but have plenty of opportunities to increase their RPI.  Ignacio still has some work to do to increase their RPI incase they don’t finish in 3rd.  Olathe is on the bubble for a at-large berth to regionals.  Olathe sits at #24 in the RPI and have two must win games to close out the regular season.  Olathe will face Vail Christian and De Beque both are must wins but won’t do much for their RPI.  Olathe could stay ahead of Ignacio for seeding in the District Tournament.   

RPI for District 3

#8 Cedaredge, #15 Mancos, #24 Olathe, #27 Ignacio, #57 Dolores

District 4

Automatic Regional Qualifiers Predictions:

1. Limon

2. Denver Christian

3. Byers

Regional At-Large Contenders:

Lotus School

Front Range Christian

Platte Canyon

Addenbrooke Classical

My guess is that District 4 Tournament will be seeded by RPI.  I believe 3 different leagues are coming together in this league.  If RPI is how it’s seeded, then Limon would be the clear #1 seed with Denver Christian at #2, and Front Range Christian at #3.  #4 and #5 seem to be very contested at both sit behind each other in the RPI, Byers is #32 and Lotus School is #33.  Same goes with the #6 Addenbrooke and #7 Platte Canyon.  If the District Bracket is seeded like this their will be some very good matchups.  Limon stays as my pick to win the District 4 tournament.  Limon has been the clear favorite and they have proved it against some District opponents.  Denver Christian stays as my pick to finish in second place.  Denver Christian picked up another key win over Byers last weekend and seem to be in good position to finish in the top 3.  The #3 spot I think is much more contested.  Front Range Christian is the slight favorite for that spot, but I am going with Byers in that spot.  Byers is on the bubble if they finish outside the top 3 in the District.  RPI wise Byers sits at #32 and would probably go in as the #4 seed in the District Tournament.  Front Range Christian is on the bubble at #25 if they finish outside the top 3.  Front Range Christian has struggled in 2022 and need a strong finish to keep their RPI inside the top 30.  FRC has key games remaining against Union Colony Prep and Gilpin County.  Lotus School is another contender for an at-large berth to regionals.  Lotus School sits at #33 in the RPI and would currently be on the outside looking in.  Lotus School will need a big run in the District Tournament because their final 3 games won’t help their RPI.  Addenbrooke Classical and Platte Canyon are listed but just outside the top 40 in the RPI.  They both would need some huge wins to help their RPI.

RPI for District 4

#4 Limon, #17 Denver Christian, #25 Front Range Christian, #32 Byers, #33 Lotus School, #43 Addenbrooke Classical, #45 Platte Canyon

District 5

Automatic Regional Qualifiers Predictions:

1. Soroco

2. Meeker

3. Plateau Valley

Regional At-Large Contenders:

West Grand

Rangely

Hayden

My guess is the District 5 tournament is seeded by head-to-head/League Standings.  District 5 is all from the Western Slope League.  Soroco has a 2-game lead over second place Meeker and 3 games remaining.  Soroco can clinch the #1 seed with a win over Hayden on Friday.  Soroco looks to be a contender for a top 5 regional seed as well.  Meeker has a 1 game lead in the standings over Plateau Valley and West Grand.  They must still face both so the #2 seed is still up for grabs.  Meeker will be tested in their final 5 games.  The #3 seed is even more up for grabs.  West Grand and Plateau Valley each have 3 losses and Hayden sits right behind them with 4.  Plateau Valley has the higher winning % currently but their game against West Grand on 2/11 could determine who gets a top 4 seed.  After this weekend’s games I think we could have somewhat clearer picture.  I am going with Soroco to win the District 5 tournament.  Soroco, I think has been the favorite and they have shown that ability.  Meeker is my pick to finish in second place.  Meeker still has some work to do to lock up seeding but they have shown the ability to win the close games.  I am going with Plateau Valley as my pick to finish in 3rd place.  I know they have an early season loss to West Grand but as of late I think they are playing tougher basketball.  Plateau Valley may need a top 3 finish to get too regional as they sit at #35 in the RPI.  West Grand is an at-large berth contender and are on the bubble if they finish outside the top 3.  West Grand sits at #28 in the RPI but have plenty of games remaining to help their RPI.  West Grand has only key games left so we will learn a lot about this team.  Rangely sits at #36 in the RPI and on the bubble for an at-large berth.  Rangely has 4 games remaining and would probably need 3 of 4 to improve their RPI to get inside the top 32.  Hayden is in a similar boat to Rangely but sit at #39 in the RPI.  Hayden has 4 games remaining and need at least 3 of their final 4 to push for a regional spot.  Hayden can fall to Soroco but winning out after that will be key.

RPI for District 5

#5 Soroco, #16 Meeker, #28 West Grand, #35 Plateau Valley, #36 Rangely, #39 Hayden

District 6

Automatic Regional Qualifiers Predictions:

1. Rye

2. Hoehne

3. Swink

Regional At-Large Contenders:

Fowler

Rocky Ford

Holly

District 6 I believe will be seeded by the league standings.  Rye has locked up the #1 seed in the District Tournament.  Hoehne is one game away from locking up the #2 seed.  Hoehne must either defeat Fowler or John Mall but a win gets them the #2 seed.  Swink is in position to get the #3 seed.  Swink has 3 games remaining and need 3 wins to get the #3 seed.  Swink will face Las Animas on Friday then Rocky Ford on Saturday.  Swink does not have the head-to-head over Fowler, so any loss puts them in a tie.  If Swink wins out they get the #3 seed.  Fowler and Rocky Ford are tied currently in the #4 and #5 seed spots.  Fowler has just 2 league games remaining against Hoehne, and Swallows Charter and Rocky Ford has 4 league games remaining.  Fowler I think has the easier path to a top 4 seed.  Rocky Ford will have their work cut out for them.  Holly is in position to get the #6 seed.  Holly has a key matchup against Las Animas to end the year and that determines who get the #6 or #7 seed more than likely.  I am sticking with Rye to win the District 6 Tournament.  Rye has cruised during league play and have not been challenged all year.  My biggest concern for Rye is the lack of competition and it does show in their RPI.   Hoehne is my pick to finish in second place.  Hoehne has not been as dominate as Rye, but they have defeated everyone else by 6+ points besides Rye.  Hoehne will be tested but I think get the second-place finish.  Swink has moved into my pick to finish in 3rd place.  Swink has won 4 of their past 5 games.  Swink has 3 winnable games to also help improve their RPI and I think could be hitting their stride at the right time.  Fowler I think finishes in 4th and Fowler sits on the bubble with the #29 RPI.  Fowler has just 3 games remaining and will only be favored in 1.  Fowler could be in trouble for an at-large berth if they don’t have success in the district tournament.  Rocky Ford sits at #38 in the RPI.  Rocky Ford still has 4 games remaining and should help improve their RPI if they can split the final 4.  Rocky Ford needs a lot of help to jump into the top 30 and winning 3 of 4 may be required.  Holly sits in #40 in the RPI and they need to win out including defeating Rocky Ford and Cheyenne Wells.  Holly will also need a solid run during the District Tournament.  Las Animas and Crowley County both need huge ends of the season to get into the At-large berth hunt.

RPI for District 6

#6 Rye, #10 Hoehne, #23 Swink, #29 Fowler, #38 Rocky Ford, #40 Holly, #46 Las Animas, #48 Crowley County

District 7

Automatic Regional Qualifiers Predictions:

1. Heritage Christian

2. Dayspring Christian

3. Gilpin County

Regional At-Large Contenders:

4. Dawson School

5. Union Colony Prep

I believe District 7 will be seeded by their league standings.  Heritage Christian and Dayspring Christian are currently tied atop the standings, and they look to break that tie on Thursday.  Gilpin County is in position to snag the #3 seed.  Gilpin County will face Dawson School tonight which could be for a top 3 seed and Gilpin County will also face UCP on 2/18 for a top 4 seed.  Dawson School sits in position for a top 4 seed.  Dawson School needs to at least win 1 of their final 3 games and should be in contention for a top 4 or 5 seed.  Heritage Christian is my pick to win the District 7 tournament.  Heritage Christian has been dominate in league play but they finally get challenge by Dayspring Christian tomorrow.  Dayspring Christian is my pick to finish in second place.  Dayspring Christian will look to prove they are a top team in 2A if they can upset Heritage Christian tomorrow.  Gilpin County is my pick to finish in 3rd place.  Gilpin County still needs to do some work to secure the #3 seed but even if they don’t finish in the top 3 they are in good position to snag an at-large berth with the #18 RPI.  Dawson School is my pick to finish in 4th place.  Dawson School sits at #26 in the RPI and on the bubble for an at-large berth.  Dawson School does have a tough remaining schedule so a deep District Tournament run could be needed.  Union Colony Prep is another contender for an at-large berth.  UCP sits at #34 in the RPI and probably need to win 2 of their final 3 games or have a deep run in the District Tournament.  UCP has a must win against Lyons on 2/15 but the other games will be tough. 

RPI for District 7

#9 Dayspring Christian, #12 Heritage Christian, #18 Gilpin County, #26 Dawson School, #34 Union Colony Prep, #44 Lyons

District 8

Automatic Regional Qualifiers Predictions:

1. Peyton

2. Fountain Valley

3. Calhan

I believe the District 8 tournament will be seeded by the league standings.  District 8 is the Black Forest league mostly.  Peyton looks to be the clear #1 seed but must beat Fountain Valley tonight then end the season against Calhan.  Calhan is currently 2-0 in league play with wins over Fountain Valley and Thomas MacLaren.  Calhan still must face Colorado Springs School, Dolores Huerta, and Peyton.  If Calhan wins 2 of the 3 they are probably a top 3 seed.  Fountain Valley and Dolores Huerta are tied with 1 loss.  Fountain Valley still has a jam-packed schedule to end the season.  Fountain Valley has 7 games scheduled in 2 weeks so they can still move a ton in District standings and RPI.  Dolores Huerta is also in good position to challenge for a top seed in the district tournament.  Still tons of unknows for seeding in this tournament.  Peyton is my clear-cut favorite to win this District Tournament.  Peyton has been dominate in 2022 and I don’t expect that to change in the district.  After Peyton things get messy.  Fountain Valley I feel has an inflated RPI and with 7 more games we could easily see it go down and drop into the 30s.  I really feel that you must finish in the top 3 of the District to get to regionals.  I am going with Fountain Valley to finish in second place and Calhan to finish in 3rd place.  I am still unsure about this District and maybe after this weekend I could have a better breakdown. 

RPI for District 8

#14 Peyton, #19 Fountain Valley, #47 Calhan, #49 Dolores Huerta, #55 Colorado Springs School