Class 1A Girls Basketball Breakdowns

Class 1A Girls Basketball District Predictions Week 10

Photos by Heidi Krise & OTSportChek (Briggsdale vs Lone Star)

Class 1A Girls Basketball District Predictions Week 10

We have less than 2 weeks until the District Tournaments.  It’s crunch time and improving your seed for District is key to reaching regionals.  So, a few updates from last week.  The bulletin states that all Districts must seed using RPI.  For Regionals Region 2 & 3 will seed using RPI and avoiding any previous district matchups.  With this I will be making changes to my regional predictions and when looking at each District I will be factoring in the RPI.  For my predictions I will be using the Districts from the CHSAA bulletin which is how team will qualify for regionals.  I also see they have reverted to 2019 rules to qualify for regionals and state.  I will post that below.  I will also post a copy of the new rules from the bulletin itself and if regions or district are doing something different please let me know.

How to Qualify for Regionals and State

8 District each qualify 2 or 3 teams to three regionals.  The three regionals are posted below

Region 1Region 2Region 3
District 1 & 8District 4, 5, 7District 2, 3, 6

The #1 and #2 seeds from Districts 1 and 8 will be paired, while the #1, #2, and #3 seeds from Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 will advance to a regional site.  In Region 2 (4,5,7) and Region 3 (2, 3, 6), the nine qualify teams will be seeded by RPI avoiding any previous district matchups.  In Region 1, District 1 and 8 #1s will play each other districts #2.  Region 1 receives 2 state qualifiers, Region 2 & 3 receive three state qualifiers each.

After the Final 8 teams have been determined the teams will be re-seeded base on the following: The eight regional winners advance to the state tournament where they will be seeded by seeding criteria approved in a committee, made up of administrative representatives.  The committee may use the following criteria to seed the final pairings: final RPI, previous district matchup’s, head-to-head competition, and common opponents.

A consolation bracket will be played in the Great 8.

District 1 (Just 2 teams Qualify for Regionals)

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Dove Creek

2. North Park

Contenders:

Nucla

Caprock Academy

Not a ton of changes this week for District 1.  Dove Creek and North Park are still the two teams I think qualify for regionals.  Dove Creek is currently 15-1 and key wins over Ignacio and Montezuma-Cortez show how tough this team is.  Dove Creek has just 3 games remaining against Dolores, Monticello UT, and Nucla.  They should be the #1 seed in the District Tournament.  North Park is currently 9-5 and will be battle tested playing a 2A Western Slope Schedule.  North Park fell to Cedaredge last week but bounced back nicely defeating Meeker by 8.  North Park has just 1 game remaining against a 1A team and that is Prairie tomorrow.  North Park will be favored in 4 of their final 5 games but a key game against 2A Soroco should test them before District play.  Caprock Academy and Nucla I think are both contenders but neither have been able to push the top 2 teams.  Both have lost big to Dove Creek and North Park but anything can happen if they overlook a team.

RPI for District 1

#8 Dove Creek, #16 North Park, #34 Caprock Academy, #37 Nucla, #49 De Beque

District 2

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. McClave

2. Cheyenne Wells

3. Kit Carson

Contenders:

Cheraw

Wiley

District 2 gets 3 team into regionals and will compete against District 3 & 6 at Regionals.  If Districts are seeded by RPI District 2 would be seeded as of today (2/10) as follows: #1 McClave, #2 Cheyenne Wells, #3 Kit Carson, #4 Cheraw, #5 Wiley, #6 Granada, #7 Eads.  All 7 teams are competitive, and this will be a good District tournament.  McClave currently would get a bye into the semifinals and need just 1 win to move onto regionals.  #3 Kit Carson vs #6 Granada and #4 Cheraw vs #5 Wiley have the makings of very good games.  I am sticking with McClave as my District 2 Champions.  McClave is 14-1 and have wins over Cheyenne Wells and Kit Carson recently.  McClave has 3 games remaining with key games against Wiley and Granada remaining.  McClave is on pace to lock up the #1 seed in the District tournament and possibly regionals.  Cheyenne Wells is my pick to finish in second place.  Cheyenne Wells has hit a bit of a rough patch losing their past two games, but both were against top competition and were competitive in both.  Cheyenne Wells will look to bounce back against Granada tomorrow night.  Cheyenne Wells will have one more key game against Cheraw before heading into the District tournament.  Kit Carson is my pick to get the final automatic berth into regionals.  Kit Carson has won 3 straight games with key wins over Springfield and Granada.  Kit Carson will face Cheraw tomorrow night but still have key games remaining against Limon, Eads, and Simla.  Kit Carson is hoping to hold off Cheraw for the #3 seed.  Cheraw, I believe is a contender for a top 3 spot in the District tournament.  Cheraw can take a big step if they can upset Kit Carson at home tomorrow night.  Cheraw also must face Cheyenne Wells so Cheraw could improve their RPI to move into a top 3 seed.  Eads, Granada, and Wiley all are contenders as well but seeding will have them facing off against top 4 seeds but all it takes is one upset to get you into contention for regionals.

RPI for District 2

#2 McClave, #9 Cheyenne Wells, #13 Kit Carson, #17 Cheraw, #27 Wiley, #30 Granada, #43 Eads

District 3

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. South Baca

2. Springfield

3. Kim/Branson

Contenders:

La Veta

District 3 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 2 & District 6.  I still think the top 3 teams are in control to go to regionals it will just be who finishes where.  South Baca is my pick to win the District 3 tournament.  South Baca is 12-2 currently and they have the head-to-head win over Springfield.  South Baca must face Eads tonight, but big games remain against Kim/Branson, La Veta, and Cheraw.  Springfield stays as my pick to finish in second place.  Springfield will face Walsh tonight but their end of season schedule includes 3 tough games against La Veta, Cheraw, and Kim/Branson.  Kim/Branson is my pick to finish in 3rd place and lock up the final spot to regionals.  Kim/Branson is 13-2 currently and they were challenged last week by Wiley (won by 10) and Centennial (won by 2).  Kim/Branson will face Granada tonight but the big game against South Baca is tomorrow and should be a great game.  Kim/Branson also must face La Veta and Springfield.  I have La Veta listed as a contender and they will get their shot at the top 3 teams in the coming week.  We will learn if La Veta is a true contender against the top 3 teams or not.

RPI for District 3

#11 Kim/Branson, #15 South Baca, #20 Springfield, #33 La Veta, #52 Walsh, #53 Manzanola, #56 Primero

District 4

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Briggsdale

2. Fleming

3. Merino

Contenders:

Haxtun

Caliche

District 4 will get 3 teams into regionals.  District 4 will compete against District 5 & 7 at Regionals.  District 4 will be one of the toughest leagues this season and the battle for the top 3 should be very interesting.  Seeding for the District tournament if completed by RPI would be (2/10); #1 Briggsdale, #2 Fleming, #3 Merino, #4 Haxtun, #5 Caliche, #6 Prairie, #7 Weldon Valley.  Briggsdale would get a bye into the semifinals and would need just 1 win to reach regionals.  I think the big game in the quarterfinals would be #4 Haxtun vs #5 Caliche and would be a great game.  My pick to win the District 4 tournament is Briggsdale.  Briggsdale has been dominate down the stretch picking up 3 straight wins against quality opponents, Fleming, Haxtun, and Lone Star.  Briggsdale will face Arickaree/Woodlin tomorrow before a key matchup against 2A top 5 team Sedgwick County.  Briggsdale end the season against Prairie and Hi-Plains.  Fleming is my pick to finish in second place.  Fleming is 15-1 and they have bounced back well since their loss to Briggsdale blasting Weldon Valley and Genoa-hugo.  Fleming will face Flatirons Academy on Saturday and is a huge RPI game.  Fleming has one last game scheduled against 2A top 5 team Sedgwick County next week and if they win both will contest Briggsdale for the top seed, if seeded by RPI.  Merino is my pick to finish in 3rd place and snag the final automatic berth.  Merino is coming off 3 straight losses to 2A top 5 schools, Limon, Sedgwick County, and Holyoke.  Merino will look to bounce back tonight against another top 2A team in Yuma.  Merino remaining schedule does not get any easier but their game against Haxtun tomorrow night should be a good one.  Haxtun and Caliche I believe are contenders for a top 3 spot and their probable game in the Quarterfinals should be a good one.  The winner will have 2 shots at upsetting a top 3 team and reaching regionals.  I will be excited to see how things end down the stretch in District 4.

RPI for District 4

#1 Briggsdale, #3 Fleming, #5 Merino, #21 Haxtun, #24 Caliche, #31 Prairie, #41 Weldon Valley

District 5

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Lone Star

2. Stratton

3. Idalia

Contenders:

4. Arickaree/Woodlin

District 5 gets 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 4 & 7 at regionals.  If districts are seeded by RPI the seeds for District 5 as of today would be: #1 Lone Star, #2 Stratton, #3 Idalia, #4 Arickaree/Woodlin, #5 Otis, #6 Hi-Plains, #7 Deer Trail, #8 Genoa-Hugo, #9 Flagler, #10 Bethune.  Pigtail games between the #8 vs #9 and #7 vs #10 would kick things off.  Some very interesting quarterfinal games will happen, and I think a few teams could cause some chaos.  I think teams like Flagler and Hi-Plains could at least push top teams but the RPI between most of the bottom 5 teams in this District could change and seeding will change.  My pick to win the District 5 tournament is Lone Star.  Lone Star will be coming off a tough 68-49 loss to #1 Briggsdale.  Lone Star will face Bethune tonight and will look for a bounce back win.  Lone Star also will face Flagler on Saturday.  Lone Star games next week are very important for RPI as they face Flatirons Academy and Haxtun.  Stratton is my pick to finish in second place.  Stratton is 9-4 currently and coming off a hard fought win over Cheyenne Wells 30-28.  Stratton will face Eads tomorrow night but the game to keep an eye on is on 2/18 against Idalia.  Idalia is my pick to finish in 3rd and snag the final automatic berth.  Idalia is on a 4 game winning streak and putting some space between themselves and the rest of the District.  Idalia will face Caliche on Saturday.  The game to watch for is 2/18 against Stratton and could be for the #2 or #3 seed.  Arickaree/Woodlin looks to be the main contender to knock off a top 3 team.  Arickaree/Woodlin would have to get by the #5 seed in the Quarterfinals but would have 2 shots at getting a win to advance to regionals.

RPI for District 5

#6 Lone Star, #10 Stratton, #14 Idalia, #22 Arickaree/Woodlin, #35 Otis, #36 Hi-Plains, #39 Deer Trail, #40 Genoa-Hugo, #42 Flagler, #45 Bethune

District 6

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Sangre De Cristo

2. Centennial

3. Sierra Grande

Contenders:

Cotopaxi

District 6 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete with District 2 & 3 at regionals.  The top 4 seeds look to be the main contenders for the 3 automatic berths in District 6.  Sangre De Cristo is my pick to win the District 6 tournament.  Sangre De Cristo has not played in February yet and but they kick things off against Lake City tonight.  Sangre De Cristo has a huge game against Sierra Grande tomorrow night and will be for the regular season league title.  Sangre De Cristo will play 6 games in 10 days.  Centennial is my pick to finish in second place in the District Tournament.  Centennial is 9-5 currently and having their best season in some time.  Centennial fell to Kim/Branson by just 2 last weekend but they have a tough schedule to end the season.  Centennial will face Manzanola tomorrow night before a huge clash with Sierra Grande on Saturday.  Centennial must also face Cotopaxi next week.  Sierra Grande moves into my third-place spot and will get the final automatic berth.  Sierra Grande picked up an impressive 45-27 win over Cotopaxi last Saturday.  That win gives them a shot at the regular season crown when they host Sangre De Cristo tomorrow.  Sierra Grande must still face Centennial Saturday which is another huge game.  Cotopaxi falls into the #4 spot but is a contender still.  Injuries have hurt Cotopaxi and if they are not healthy, I do not think they get to regionals.  They still have games against Centennial and Sangre De Cristo, but they could enter the District tournament as a #4 seed.

RPI for District 6

#7 Sangre De Cristo, #23 Centennial, #25 Sierra Grande, #38 Cotopaxi, #46 Antonito, #51 Moffat, #57 Lake City

District 7

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Kiowa

2. Simla

3. Evangelical Christian

Contenders:

Elbert

District 7 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 4 and 5 at Regionals.  This is a 4-team race for the 3 automatic berths.  I do not think anyone outside of the top 4 will push the top 4 teams.  Kiowa stays as my pick to win the District 7 tournament despite their big loss to Simla.  I think they fix the mistakes and get them in the district championship.  Kiowa will look to bounce back from their first loss of the season against Hi-Plains tonight.  Kiowa still has a huge game against ECA tomorrow night as well.  Simla stays as my pick to finish in second place.  Simla has locked up a top 3 seed in the District tournament but ECA is right on their tails and their game against them on 2/15 will be for the #2 or #3 seed.  Simla will face Hanover and Stratton this weekend before their game against ECA.  Evangelical Christian moves into my #3 spot.  ECA has played well in 2022 and they will look to knock off Kiowa in a key matchup tomorrow night.  ECA still must face Simla and Elbert so seeding still very much up in the air.  Elbert, I think is the only contender and at times they have been dominate but other games not as much.  If Elbert gets back to their play from earlier in the season they could challenge for the District crown. 

RPI for District 7

#12 Kiowa, ##18 Simla, #19 Evangelical Christian, #29 Elbert, #48 Colorado D&B, #50 Hanover, #54 Pikes Peak Christian, #55 Miami-Yoder, #58 Cripple Creek

District 8 (Only 2 teams get to Regionals)

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Flatirons Academy

2. Front Range Baptist

Contenders:

Rocky Mountain Lutheran

Belleview Christian

District 8 gets just 2 teams into Regionals and will face District 1 at Regionals.  District 8 has been tough to evaluate early on with teams playing non CHSAA schools or playing non-quality opponents.  Flatirons Academy is the clear-cut favorite to win District 8.  Flatirons Academy is 14-1 currently and they have cruised through league.  Flatirons Academy close league play against Denver Waldorf but after that they play Fleming, Resurrection Christian, and Lone Star.  Flatirons Academy will be battle tested heading into Districts.  I am going with Front Range Baptist as my second-place team.  Front Range Baptist has the head-to-head over Belleview Christian and will look to lock up the #2 seed when they face Rocky Mountain Lutheran tomorrow.  Rocky Mountain Lutheran and Belleview Christian are contenders for the top 2 spots but you want the #2 or #3 seeds to try and get into the District Championship.

RPI for District 8

#4 Flatirons Academy, #26 Front Range Baptist, #28 Rocky Mountain Lutheran, #32 Belleview Christian, #44 Mile High Academy, #47 Denver Waldorf, #59 Denver Jewish Day