Class 1A Girls Basketball Breakdowns

Class 1A Girls Basketball District Predictions Week 11

Picture by Vibrant Valley Photography

Class 1A Girls Basketball District Predictions Week 11

We are in the final week of the regular season.  It’s crunch time and improving your seed for District is key to reaching regionals.  So, a few updates from last week.  The bulletin states that all Districts must seed using RPI.  For Regionals Region 2 & 3 will seed using RPI and avoiding any previous district matchups.  With this I will be making changes to my regional predictions and when looking at each District I will be factoring in the RPI.  For my predictions I will be using the Districts from the CHSAA bulletin which is how team will qualify for regionals.  I also see they have reverted to 2019 rules to qualify for regionals and state.  I will post that below.  I will also post a copy of the new rules from the bulletin itself and if regions or district are doing something different please let me know.

How to Qualify for Regionals and State

8 District each qualify 2 or 3 teams to three regionals.  The three regionals are posted below

Region 1Region 2Region 3
District 1 & 8District 4, 5, 7District 2, 3, 6

The #1 and #2 seeds from Districts 1 and 8 will be paired, while the #1, #2, and #3 seeds from Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 will advance to a regional site.  In Region 2 (4,5,7) and Region 3 (2, 3, 6), the nine qualify teams will be seeded by RPI avoiding any previous district matchups.  In Region 1, District 1 and 8 #1s will play each other districts #2.  Region 1 receives 2 state qualifiers, Region 2 & 3 receive three state qualifiers each.

After the Final 8 teams have been determined the teams will be re-seeded base on the following: The eight regional winners advance to the state tournament where they will be seeded by seeding criteria approved in a committee, made up of administrative representatives.  The committee may use the following criteria to seed the final pairings: final RPI, previous district matchup’s, head-to-head competition, and common opponents.

A consolation bracket will be played in the Great 8.

 District 1 (Just 2 teams Qualify for Regionals)

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Dove Creek

2. North Park

Contenders:

Nucla

Caprock Academy

Not a ton of changes this week for District 1.  Dove Creek and North Park are still the two teams I think qualify for regionals.  Dove Creek is currently 16-1 and having a solid 2022.    Dove Creek has just 2 games remaining against Monticello UT and Nucla.  They should win both games and have some solid momentum heading into the District Tournament.  They should be the #1 seed in the District Tournament.  North Park is currently 11-6 and would be in 3rd place in the 2A Western Slope.  North Park has played well against 2A teams and will be battle tested as they head into the District Tournament.  North Park ends the year against 2A top 10 Soroco and Vail Christian.  Caprock Academy and Nucla I think are both contenders but neither have been able to push the top 2 teams.  Both have lost big to Dove Creek and North Park, but anything can happen if they overlook a team.

RPI for District 1

#6 Dove Creek, #16 North Park, #32 Nucla, #39 Caprock Academy, #49 De Beque

District 2

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. McClave

2. Cheyenne Wells

3. Kit Carson

Contenders:

Cheraw

Wiley

District 2 gets 3 team into regionals and will compete against District 3 & 6 at Regionals.  If Districts are seeded by RPI District 2 would be seeded as of today (2/16) as follows: #1 McClave, #2 Cheyenne Wells, #3 Kit Carson, #4 Cheraw, #5 Granada, #6 Wiley, #7 Eads  All 7 teams are competitive, and this will be a good District tournament.  McClave currently would get a bye into the semifinals and need just 1 win to move onto regionals.  #3 Kit Carson vs #6 Wiley and #4 Cheraw vs #5 Granada have the makings of very good games.  I am sticking with McClave as my District 2 Champions.  McClave is 15-1 currently and played just 1 game last week defeating Hi-Plains.  McClave has two games remaining to end the season both are important games.  McClave will face Wiley on Thursday and end the season against Granada on Friday.  McClave is on path to be the #1 seed in both the District Tournament and Regional Tournament.  Cheyenne Wells is my pick to finish in second place.  Cheyenne Wells has a record of 12-4 and are on a two-game winning streak defeating Granada and Holly last week.  Cheyenne Wells has one last tough game against Cheraw this Friday and close the season against Walsh.  Cheyenne Wells is only two RPI spots ahead of Kit Carson so winning out is key to keeping the #2 seed.  Kit Carson is my pick to get the final automatic berth into regionals.  Kit Carson sits at 11-6 overall and coming off a loss to Limon last night.  Kit Carson has two tough games remaining against Eads and Simla.  Kit Carson also got a huge OT win over Cheraw last Friday to give themselves some distance for the #3 seed in the District Tournament.  Kit Carson is now hoping Cheyenne Wells falls to jump into the #3 seed.  Cheraw, I believe is a contender for a top 3 spot in the District tournament.  Cheraw has proven they can hang with the top teams and took Kit Carson into OT.  Cheraw will face Cheyenne Wells Friday before ending the season against South Baca.  Eads, Granada, and Wiley all are contenders as well but seeding will have them facing off against top 4 seeds but all it takes is one upset to get you into contention for regionals.

RPI for District 2

#2 McClave, #9 Cheyenne Wells, #11 Kit Carson, #17 Cheraw, #27 Granada, #30 Wiley, #42 Eads

District 3

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. South Baca

2. Springfield

3. Kim/Branson

District 3 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 2 & District 6.  I still think the top 3 teams are in control to go to regionals it will just be who finishes where.  South Baca is my pick to win the District 3 tournament.  South Baca is 15-2 currently and coming off a 37-28 win over Springfield last weekend.  South Baca is behind in the RPI to Kim/Branson by 3 spots.  South Baca ends the season against La Veta and Cheraw.  Springfield stays as my pick to finish in second place.  Springfield currently sits at 11-7 overall and are coming off a tough 34-29 loss to Cheraw.  Springfield will face Kim/Branson Friday night and this is a huge game.  Springfield RPI sits behind both Kim/Branson and South Baca so an upset could boost their RPI.  Kim/Branson is my pick to finish in 3rd place and lock up the final spot to regionals.  Kim/Branson is 15-3 currently and coming off a 42-27 win over La Veta.  Kim/Branson has been struck by some injuries to their #3 and #4 scorers and could have a big impact on if they can challenge for a regional spot.  Kim/Branson will face Springfield Friday in a key game.  I am picking Springfield over Kim/Branson in a very good game.  I have La Veta listed as a contender and they will get their shot at the top 3 teams in the coming week.  We will learn if La Veta is a true contender against the top 3 teams or not.

RPI for District 3

#10 Kim/Branson, #13 South Baca, #21 Springfield, #34 La Veta, #53 Manzanola, #54 Walsh, #57 Primero

District 4

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Briggsdale

2. Fleming

3. Merino

Contenders:

Haxtun

Caliche

District 4 will get 3 teams into regionals.  District 4 will compete against District 5 & 7 at Regionals.  District 4 will be one of the toughest leagues this season and the battle for the top 3 should be very interesting.  Seeding for the District tournament if completed by RPI would be as of today (2/16); #1 Briggsdale, #2 Fleming, #3 Merino, #4 Haxtun, #5 Caliche, #6 Prairie, #7 Weldon Valley.  Briggsdale would get a bye into the semifinals and would need just 1 win to reach regionals.  I think the big game in the quarterfinals would be #4 Haxtun vs #5 Caliche and would be a great game.  My pick to win the District 4 tournament is Briggsdale.  Briggsdale has been dominate down the stretch picking up 3 straight wins against quality opponents, Fleming, Haxtun, Lone, Star, and Sedgwick County.  Briggsdale end the season against Prairie and Hi-Plains, and they should be undefeated as they enter District play.  Fleming is my pick to finish in second place.  Fleming is currently 15-2 and coming off a tough 65-46 loss to Flatirons Academy.  Fleming will look to bounce back against Sedgwick County on Thursday and that also is their final game.  Merino is my pick to finish in 3rd place and snag the final automatic berth.  Merino is currently 13-5 and coming off a hard fought loss to 2A Wiggins.  Merino did beat Haxtun and Yuma last week and were very important RPI wins.  Merino will end the season against Wray on Friday another tough matchup.  Haxtun and Caliche I believe are contenders for a top 3 spot and their probable game in the Quarterfinals should be a good one.  The winner will have 2 shots at upsetting a top 3 team and reaching regionals.  I will be excited to see how things end down the stretch in District 4.

RPI for District 4

#1 Briggsdale, #3 Fleming, #7 Merino, #22 Haxtun, #29 Caliche, #33 Prairie, #44 Weldon Valley

District 5

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Lone Star

2. Stratton

3. Idalia

Contenders:

4. Arickaree/Woodlin

District 5 gets 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 4 & 7 at regionals.  If districts are seeded by RPI the seeds for District 5 as of today (2/16) would be: #1 Lone Star, #2 Stratton, #3 Idalia, #4 Arickaree/Woodlin, #5 Hi-Plains, #6 Genoa-Hugo, #7 Flagler, #8 Otis, #9 Deer Trail, #10 Bethune.  Pigtail games between the #8 vs #9 and #7 vs #10 would kick things off.  Some very interesting quarterfinal games will happen, and I think a few teams could cause some chaos.  I think teams like Flagler and Hi-Plains could at least push top teams but the RPI between most of the bottom 5 teams in this District could change and seeding will change.  My pick to win the District 5 tournament is Lone Star.  Lone Star currently sits at 13-4 overall and coming off a huge win over Flatirons Academy 58-54.  Lone Star has one final game against Haxtun, and they look to enter Districts with some key momentum.  Stratton is my pick to finish in second place.  Stratton is 11-5 currently and coming off a 45-36 win over Otis.  Stratton ends the season with a huge game against Idalia on Thursday and end the season against Deer Trail Saturday.  Stratton will look for key momentum as we move into the District Tournament.  Idalia is my pick to finish in 3rd and snag the final automatic berth.  Idalia currently sits at 12-6 overall and they end their season against Stratton on Thursday.  Idalia will look to bounce back from a tough loss to Burlington on Tuesday.  I am going with Stratton over Idalia in a very good game.  Arickaree/Woodlin looks to be the main contender to knock off a top 3 team.  Arickaree/Woodlin would have to get by the #5 seed in the Quarterfinals but would have 2 shots at getting a win to advance to regionals.

RPI for District 5

#5 Lone Star, #12 Stratton, #15 Idalia, #20 Arickaree/Woodlin, #31 Hi-Plains, #37 Genoa-Hugo, #38 Flagler, #40 Otis, #41 Deer Trail, #46 Bethune

District 6

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Sangre De Cristo

2. Centennial

3. Sierra Grande

Contenders:

Cotopaxi

District 6 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete with District 2 & 3 at regionals.  The top 4 seeds look to be the main contenders for the 3 automatic berths in District 6.  Sangre De Cristo is my pick to win the District 6 tournament.  Sangre De Cristo is currently 14-2 and on a 6-game winning streak.  Sangre De Cristo have just two games remaining against Cotopaxi Friday and Antonito on Saturday.  Sangre De Cristo did play Center on Tuesday and win but will look to get on a groove as we head to the post season.  Centennial is my pick to finish in second place in the District Tournament.  Centennial is 11-5 currently and having their best season in some time.  Centennial grabbed a huge 56-51 win over Sierra Grande on Saturday and will look to lock up the #2 seed when they face Cotopaxi on Thursday.  Sangre De Cristo also must face Moffat, but Cotopaxi vs Centennial should be a good game.  Sierra Grande moves into my third-place spot and will get the final automatic berth.  Sierra Grande fell to Centennial on Saturday but will look to end their season on a high note when they host La Veta Thursday.  Sierra Grande is in solid position to get the #3 seed.  Cotopaxi falls into the #4 spot but is a contender still.  Injuries have hurt Cotopaxi and if they are not healthy, I do not think they get to regionals.  They still have games against Centennial and Sangre De Cristo, but they could enter the District tournament as a #4 seed.

RPI for District 6

#8 Sangre De Cristo, #23 Centennial, #25 Sierra Grande, #35 Cotopaxi, #43 Antonito, #52 Moffat, #55 Lake City

District 7

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Kiowa

2. Evangelical Christian

3. Simla

Contenders:

Elbert

District 7 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 4 and 5 at Regionals.  This is a 4-team race for the 3 automatic berths.  I do not think anyone outside of the top 4 will push the top 4 teams.  Kiowa stays as my pick to win the District 7 tournament despite their big loss to Simla.  I think they fix the mistakes and get them in the district championship.  Kiowa has bounced back since their loss beating Evangelical Christian and playing tough against 3A SkyView Academy.  Kiowa ends the season with 3 games against Hanover, Thomas MacLaren, and Byers.  Evangelical Christian moves into my second-place spot.  ECA picked up a solid 4-point win over Simla last night and look to be a real threat to win the District.  ECA ends the season against contender Elbert Thursday and should be a good game.  Simla falls into the #3 spot but easily could mix things up.  Simla does have the upset of Kiowa but fell to ECA last night.  Simla will look to bounce back against Cripple Creek and Kit Carson to end the season.  Elbert is a contender for a top 3 spot.  Elbert has lost to Simla and Kiowa but get a shot at ECA on Thursday.  Elbert will need to get hot to knock off a top 3 team in the District Tournament. 

RPI for District 7

#14 Kiowa, ##18 Simla, #19 Evangelical Christian, #26 Elbert, #48 Hanover, #50 Pikes Peak Christian, #51 Miami-Yoder, #56 Colorado D&B, #58 Cripple Creek

District 8 (Only 2 teams get to Regionals)

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Flatirons Academy

2. Front Range Baptist

Contenders:

Rocky Mountain Lutheran

Belleview Christian

District 8 gets just 2 teams into Regionals and will face District 1 at Regionals.  District 8 has been dominated by Flatirons Academy, but 3 other teams have risen to be the main contenders.  Flatirons Academy is the clear-cut favorite to win District 8.  Flatirons Academy is 17-2 currently and they have cruised through league.  Flatirons Academy has wrapped up their regular season schedule.  Flatirons Academy defeated Fleming and Resurrection Christian but were upset by Lone Star last night to end the season.  I am going with Rocky Mountain Lutheran as my #2 team.  Rocky Mountain Lutheran defeated Front Range Baptist 31-9 last week to give them an edge over Front Range Baptist.  Front Range Baptist and Belleview Christian are still contenders for a top 2 finish and will come down to who gets hot at the district tournament.

RPI for District 8

#4 Flatirons Academy, #24 Front Range Baptist, #28 Rocky Mountain Lutheran, #36 Belleview Christian