Class 3A Boys Basketball Breakdown

Boys Basketball Class 3A Regional Projections and State Predictions

Boys Basketball Class 3A Regional Projections and State Predictions

For my projections I am using the CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index.  I am going to be predicting the District Champions and may just give a quick reason as to why I picked each District Champion.  If you are a District Champion ranked in the top 16 of the Seeding Index you will automatically host a regional.  Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your District. 

Class 3A

  • District Seeding will be done by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index (50% Maxpreps & 50% RPI).  Maxpreps and RPI will run through Districts.
  • District Winners (8) advancing to the 32-team state bracket.  District Champions are guaranteed a top 8 (host slot) as long as they are in the top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index after Districts.
  • Remaining 24 teams are filled in by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts.
  • Seeding criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts.  Seed 9-24 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the FIRST ROUND ONLY.  Teams may be moved one spot up or down.  Teams 25-32 may be moved based upon geography and league matchups.
  • First two rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in the quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total)
  • Teams will not be reseeded prior to the final week-state championship (Final 8)
  • Top 8 teams will advance.  Class 3A Great 8 will play a modified consolation bracket.  Teams losing on Thursday will not advance to Friday.  

District Tournament Winners

District Metro/Confluence/Lower Platte: Faith Christian

This will be a great battle for this District Crown.  Faith Christian is the current top team, but Prospect Ridge and Yuma will both be challenger for that league crown.  Currently, Faith Christian, Yuma, Prospect Ridge, and Stargate School are locks for Regionals.  Manual sits at #23 and I consider them on the bubble.  Manual strong strength of schedule gives them a huge leg up and I expect them to make it to regionals.

District Frontier: Lake County

Lake County grabbed a huge win over Pinnacle and more than likely locked up the #1 seed in the District.  Lake County may need some help to hold onto a top 16 and host a regional berth.  More than likely only Pinnacle gets into regionals.

District IML/SPL: Centauri

Centauri is one of the top teams in Class 3A.  They already have some wins over other teams in this District.  Centauri I believe still could be challenged by Montezuma-Cortez and Bayfield.  Bayfield is a near lock for regionals sitting at #22.  Montezuma-Cortez sits at #27 and Ignacio sits at #28 both are on the bubble and need a few wins down the stretch.  Ignacio will probably play the play-in game against Crested Butte who sits at #34 with the loser probably in hot waters for Regionals.

District Black Forest/Santa Fe: Peyton

One of the weaker Districts in Class 3A.  Peyton currently is the top team, and I don’t see another team really challenging them in this District.  Possibly only one teams gets into Regionals from this District.  Thomas MacLaren sits at #35 and Fountain Valley is #37 both need major help to push for one of the final spots.

District Patriot: Highland

Highland is my current pick to win the Patriot League.  Platte Valley and Brush could have something to say about that as the main challengers to Highland.  Highland, Platte Valley, and Brush I consider locks for regionals.  Strasburg is on the bubble at #29 and must have a decent showing in the District Tournament.  My guess is Strasburg gets to regionals by reaching the semifinals.  Frontier Academy (36) and Liberty Common (39) both need help to jump the teams in from of them to make it to regionals and probably need a run in the district tournament.

District Tri-Peaks: Salida

Salida is my favorite to win this District.  Salida is closely paced by Vanguard and C.S Christian.  Salida, Vanguard, C.S Christian, Ellicott, Woodland Park, and Banning Lewis are all locks for regionals.  All teams mentioned sit inside the top 18 of the Seeding Index and I don’t seem them falling 14+ spot to miss regionals.  Rye (26), Florence (30), and St. Mary’s (31) all sit on the bubble but would make regionals if the season ended today.  Most will be desperate for a win in the district tournament and that could be the difference between making it to regionals or not.  Buena Vista sits at #33 and would be the first team out.  More than likely they need to win their first game at district to get into regionals.

District Western Slope: Cedaredge

Cedaredge avenged their earlier season loss to Roaring Fork and are my pick to win this District.  Cedaredge and Roaring Fork are locks for regionals.  Meeker sits at #25 and are on the bubble.  Meeker will make it to regionals as long as they reach the semifinals in the District tournament.  A loss and Meeker will have to sweat things out.  Grand Valley would be the last team into regionals at #32.  They are being chased by a handful of teams that want that final spot.  They will be in must win territory against the #5 seed in the District tournament.

District Mile High/Foothills: Windsor Charter

The Mile High/Foothills District is wide open and currently only 3 teams have a shot for the district title and regionals.  Windsor Charter and Machebeuf are locks for Regionals but hosting will be on the line.  SkyView Academy is also a near lock for regionals at #21.  A semifinal visit in the District Tournament is probably all they need to reach Regionals.  Clear Creek is sitting at #38 and will need some help to push for the final spot at regionals.

District Champions and Regional Hosts: ()=Seeding Index

District Metro/Confluence/Lower Platte: Faith Christian (1)

District Frontier: Lake County (17) (Will not host)

District IML/SPL: Centauri (3)

District Black Forest/Santa Fe: Peyton (14)

District Patriot: Highland (4)

District Tri-Peaks: Salida (2)

District Western Slope: Cedaredge (10)

District Mile High/Foothills: Windsor Charter (7)

At-Large Host: Yuma (5)

Bracket- District matchups will be avoided in the first round.  8 Regional winners qualifying for state.  State will not be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!

Region 1
*#1 Faith Christian vs #32 St. Mary’s
#16 Woodland Park vs #17 Lake County
Region 2
*#8 Peyton vs #25 Meeker
#9 Vanguard vs #24 Manual
Region 3
*#5 Yuma vs #28 Ignacio
#12 C.S Christian vs #21 SkyView Academy
Region 4
*#4 Highland vs #29 Strasburg
#13 Machebeuf vs #20 Brush
Region 5
*#2 Salida vs #31 Grand Valley
#15 Stargate School vs #18 Banning Lewis
Region 6
*#7 Cedaredge vs #26 Rye
#10 Platte Valley vs #23 Pinnacle
Region 7
*#6 Windsor Charter vs #27 Montezuma-Cortez
#11 Prospect Ridge vs #22 Bayfield
Region 8
*#3 Centauri vs #30 Florence
#14 Ellicott vs #19 Roaring Fork

*= Regional Host

My State Qualifier Picks

Here are the 8 teams I think make it to the Elite 8 and the matchups.  This will change as the bracket changes. 

#1 Faith Christian vs #8 Peyton

#4 Highland vs #5 Yuma

#2 Salida vs #10 Platte Valley

#3 Centauri vs #11 Prospect Ridge