Class 2A First Round Playoffs Breakdown
#1 Bayfield 8-0 vs #16 Manitou Springs 3-6 (Sat 12:00 pm)
Finally the playoffs are here and the second part of the season begins. The first game is a very interesting game. You have two teams that took different paths to get here. Bayfield ran through their schedule rarely getting challenged and have a couple monster wins. Bayfield has key wins against Paonia, Miyamura NM, Gunnison, and Alamosa. They are averaging 39.8 ppg which is one of the top offenses in 2A and it is led by a very good rushing attack averaging 256.8 ypg and their passing game is enough to keep you honest averaging 87.6 ypg. Their defense is very good as well only giving up 6.1 ppg. Only 1 team scored over 10 points on Bayfield and that was Miyamura NM and they are a 5A school. If they can keep up this pace they will be looking very good in the playoffs.
Manitou Springs took a very different path starting the season 0-5 but played a very rugged schedule playing against 4 playoff teams. They made a great run in league play knocking off Lamar and Florence and that helped them get into the playoffs. Don’t be deceived by their record they can hang with some of the better teams. Only lost by 14 to Faith Christian and 10 to Eaton. They will need their defense to really step up. They are surrendering 28.8 ppg and need to limit the amount they give up against Bayfield. Their offense is averaging 23.8 ppg and will need to score more than that if they want to pull the upset.
Bayfield will be the heavy favorite in this matchup. They need to be careful though, Manitou Springs has surprised plenty of teams this year. If Manitou Springs defense plays outstanding they could challenge Bayfield. The key to the game is definitely defense. We know how good Bayfield’s defense is but the question is on Manitou Springs. Bayfield should walk away with a victory I am giving them a 28 point advantage.
#8 Moffat County 7-2 vs #9 Brush 6-3 (Sat 1:00 pm)
There are 4 great matchups this weekend and this is one of them. Moffat County snagged the only playoff spot out of their league and it was an easy track through the Western Slope-North. They were only challenged once and that was a 17 point win against Battle Mountain. Moffat County relies heavily on their rushing attack averaging 304.8 ypg and their passing attack is none existent averaging 36.4 ypg. Their offense is averaging 30.3 ppg and their defense is giving up 17.3 ppg. What Moffat County is missing is a key victory, they played against 1 playoff team in Gunnison and lost and a team bound for the playoffs in 3A Rifle but also lost that game. That is the only real negative I see from this Moffat County team. They are riding high into this matchup winning 5 straight games.
Brush is you’re defending state champions and had a little bit of rebuilding to do. They lost their main play maker from a year ago but have been able to put a good season together. They played in the best 2A league and that has battle tested them for the playoffs. Their offense has not been the problem their biggest problem has been their defense. Last year their defense was one of the best in 2A but this year they are giving up 22.9 ppg. Brush also has not traveled well going 4-0 at home but only 2-3 on the road which could be a big factor this weekend, as they are taking a very long bus ride to Craig Colorado.
Neither of these teams played a common opponent but I am putting Brush as the favorite for this game but not by much. The reason I think Brush is the favorite is due to their tough schedule. They played three 2A playoff teams and potentially two 3A playoff teams. The keys to this game are Defense and which team can control the line of scrimmage. Both teams want to run the ball over 80% of the time and whichever teams owns the line of scrimmage will win this game. Right now I see Brush as a 14 point favorite.
#4 La Junta 9-0 vs #13 Alamosa 4-5 (Sat 1:00pm)
Here is a battle between two teams that were not projected to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season. La Junta was not ranked to start the season and they finished as a top 4 seed. The two teams in their league that were ranked didn’t even make the playoffs. Alamosa was in the same boat they were not picked to finish in the #2 spot that was supposed to be Gunnison but Alamosa edged them for the #2 spot and Gunnison finished 3rd and also made the playoffs. La Junta has had an excellent season beating 3 playoff teams on their way to a 9-0 season. Their defense has been the biggest factor this season they are only giving up 5.6 ppg. That is one of the best in Class 2A. Their offense is pretty good as well scoring 35 ppg. Their defense has only surrender over 14 points twice this season and have 5 shutouts.
Alamosa had a very slow start but once league started their offense and defense both woke up. You almost have to break their season into two parts to even get a good look at this team. In the non-league part they went 0-4 giving up 25.3 ppg and only scoring 12.5 ppg. But once league started they averaged 24.0 ppg on offense and only gave up 10.8 ppg. So their turnaround could be credited to their defense stepping up. No stats were uploaded to Maxpreps.com so hard to know who their offense is led by.
These two teams have already faced off against each other. La Junta beat Alamosa 27 to 8 in the second week of the season. I have a feeling that game could be closer this time around. Alamosa is a completely different team from the begging of the season and I think could challenge La Junta more this time around. These two teams also have two common opponents as well they both played Lamar and Trinidad. Alamosa lost to both but were close games and La Junta beat both by 20 points. Once again it depends on which Alamosa team shows up, if the Alamosa team for league show up this could get interesting. The key to this game is also defense. If Alamosa can keep it under 20 point they could possibly pull the upset but there offense is going to struggle against one of the best defenses in 2A. I see La Junta as a 21 point favorite.
#5 Sterling 7-2 vs #12 Faith Christian 6-3 (Sat 1:00pm)
This is game 2 of 4 for the 1st round that should be great matchups. Sterling finished in second place in a very good Patriot league. Faith Christian finished in third in the Colorado league which is also a very good league. Sterling was not picked to finish in second place in league this year but probably at least a playoff contender. They have been led by a solid offense that scores 27.6 ppg. Their offense is a balanced attack rushing for 172 ypg and throwing for 141 ypg. Their defense has surrender 18 ppg. They have 3 impressive wins over playoff teams, they are Strasburg, Eaton, and Brush. Their two losses were to good teams, Platte Valley and to playoff hopeful Mead 3A. In their two losses they gave up over 35 points and for Sterling to win games must have their defense playing top notch.
Faith Christian was shaken early in the season when they lost back to back games to Florence and to Alameda. They did rebound nicely off of those losses and still finished with a 6-3 record. Their offense has not been the problem they are averaging 34.9 ppg lead by a great rushing attack averaging 255.1 ypg. Their offense is a one trick pony though only averaging 58.3 passing ypg. They may need to open that up more if they want to pull the upset. Faith Christian’s defense has been tough this year only giving up 15.1 ppg. In two of their three losses they did give up over 30 points and that is what cost them the game.
These two teams don’t have a common opponent but each faced a tough league and are battle tested. I see the key of the game being offense efficiency. In both teams losses they were not effective on offense. I am putting Sterling on upset alert I believe they should win this game but will need to control the pace with their offense and need to stop the run. I am giving Sterling a small 10 point advantage on Faith Christian should be a good game.
#3 Platte Valley 8-1 vs #14 Gunnison 5-4 (Sat 2:00pm)
Platte Valley may be the hottest team coming into the playoffs. They have won 8 straight games and were not really challenged in the Patriot league. Their closest game was against Sterling and they beat them 14. Platte Valley is led by one of the better offenses in 2A scoring 36.4 ppg and attack you both through the air and on the ground rushing for 211.6 and passing for 153.1. Their defense is just as scary they are only surrendering 9.2 ppg and have 6 games were they held team to under 7 points.
Gunnison had a much different track into the playoffs. They played a tough non-league schedule and split 2-2 playing 3 playoff teams. In league they ended up in third place after being upset by Alamosa but they finished the season strong winning their last two and grabbing one of the last playoff wildcards. No stats are posted online but their offense is averaging 23.3 ppg and their defense has given up 18.3 ppg. In their four losses they couldn’t score over 10 points so they will need their offense to be on top of their game if they are going to pull the upset.
The key to this game will be offense efficiency. Platte Valley has one of the better offense in 2A and if Gunnison is going to keep up they will need their offense to be on top of their game. Platte Valley is the big favorite I am giving them a 28 point advantage.
#6 Alameda 8-1 vs #11 Strasburg 6-3 (Sat 1:00pm)
This is third of four games that should be really good. Alameda is easily the biggest surprise this year in 2A. They finished with an 8-1 record and finished second in the Colorado League. The biggest knock on Alameda is their schedule. They only played 2 playoff teams and split with them. Alameda has one of the better rushing attacks in 2A averaging 347.4 ypg and they have enough of a passing game to keep you honest throwing for 109 ypg. It seems that as the season has gone on Alameda level of play has slowly declined. It started with their 11 point win over Denver West since that win their largest margin of victory was 12 of Ridgeview Academy and the bottom half of the Colorado league was not that tough. They ended the regular season with a blowout loss to Kent Denver and they quickly need to rebound if they are going to win.
Strasburg started the season with two straight losses to playoff teams, those teams were Platte Valley and Sterling. After those two losses their offense was on fire scoring over 39 points in every game including their very close loss to Bennett. Strasburg on offense comesat you with a strong rushing attack but can keep you honest with their passing attack as well they rush for 192.8 ypg and pass for 117 ypg. On defense Strasburg has been good only giving up 18.2 ppg. Strasburg biggest weakness in the games they lost were the amount of rushing yards they surrendered against Bennett they gave up 422 yards rushing. They cannot afford to do that against Alameda or they will not see the ball that much.
The two keys to this game are defense and controlling the line of scrimmage. I have a feeling this game is going to go by quickly. Both teams want to control the game with their rushing attack and both teams have a good rushing attack. Whichever team has control of the line of scrimmage will make it tough to establish the run. I am giving Alameda a small 7 point advantage over Strasburg but they will be on upset alert this week as well.
#7 Bennett 7-2 vs #10 Eaton 5-4 (Sat 1:00pm)
This is the final game of four which could see an upset. Bennett probably didn’t like seeing that the team they faced right off the bat in the playoffs, Eaton has already beat them 52-19 in the first week of the season. Now Bennet has been on a great roll and will need to step up their game if they are going to move into the next round. Bennett started the season with two losses but have since ran off 7 straights win and have scored over 40 points in their wins. That is the biggest thing contributing to their turnaround. Bennett wants to control the game with their rushing attack, running for 374.6 ypg. If their running game does not work it usually turns into a long game for them.
Eaton snagged a wildcard berth to get into the playoffs finishing in fourth place in the Patriot league. They only beat the bottom two teams in league. Eaton played a very tough schedule playing against 6 playoff teams going 2-4 against them. They are battle tested and are looking to take advantage of the experience they gained. Their offense is paced by a strong rushing attack gaining 211 ypg and can throw enough to keep you honest throwing for 94.4 ypg. In three of Eaton’s four losses they didn’t score over 14 points and that will have to change if they are going to advance.
These two teams have a common opponent in Platte Valley both teams lost but Eaton lost by much less than Bennett. Remember these two teams have already faced each other. Eaton was able to dominate the line of scrimmage and only gave up 232 yards rushing. Eaton on the other hand was very good at running the ball rushing for 393 yards. Bennett has improved as the season has gone on but I still think that Eaton is the favorite in this game. I am giving Eaton a 14 point advantage.
#2 Kent Denver vs #15 Academy (Sat 1:00pm)
Kent Denver and Bayfield both deserve the #1 and #2 seeds and both have been on fire. Kent Denver was yet to be challenged running through their schedule. The closest game was to Gunnison and that was a 28 point victory. Kent Denver on offense has averaged 41.1 ppg and are paced by a good rushing attack 288.6 ypg and a passing attack that has yet to be need but averaged 95.6 ypg. Kent Denver on defense have been scary good only giving up 4.1 ppg. Which is the best in 2A. The only knock on Kent Denver is they only played 3 playoff teams but they dominated them.
Academy finished third in the Frontier league behind Bennett and Strasburg. Their offense is averaging 31.1 ppg and their defense is surrendering 26.9 ppg. The Academy offense has not posted big numbers in their wins only rushing for 136.0 ypg and passing for 77.6 ypg. The biggest knock on Academy has been their lack of a quality win. They lost to the two teams with winning record by more than 20 points. They will need their defense to show up if they are going to have any chance at pulling an upset.
The key to this game is defense. We know how good Kent Denver’s defense is the question mark is on Academy’s defense. Against Bennett and Strasburg they gave up over 49 points. I believe Kent Denver is better than both of those teams so if Academy wants any chance they are going to need the defense to step up. I believe Kent Denver is a 35 point favorite.
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