Week 9 Class 2A League Breakdown and Playoff Team Projections

Picture by Kristen Westbrook, (Bayfield vs Pagosa Springs)

Week 9 Class 2A League Breakdown

The Final Week of the regular season and the final chance for teams to make their case for the playoffs. A win or a loss in the final game could determine your spot in the playoffs. In this week’s breakdown unless there is a huge matchup I am going to focus primarily on who makes the playoffs. (All RPI #’s are pulled at 10/25/2017 @ 8:40am).

Colorado League

The Colorado League Champion is Kent Denver. Kent Denver beat Machebeuf last week 21-8 and locked up the league title. This week Kent Denver travels to Sheridan and should cruise to a victory. Englewood hosts Ridgeview Academy and should also move to 4-5 on the season. The big game this week features Machebeuf at Elizabeth. The winner will finish in second place in league and a win will also make sure they lock up their playoff spot. A lose and things get more interesting. Elizabeth last week beat Englewood 41-13 to move to 6-2 on the season and are having a much better season this year. Elizabeth has been very effective running the ball and will need to be effective against Machebeuf. Elizabeth also must be ready to defend the run as well. Machebeuf hosted Kent Denver last week and lost 21-8. Machebeuf played Kent Denver much closer this year but fell just short. Machebeuf is also a run first team and also must be able to defend the run. The winner of this game will come down to which team can control the line of scrimmage. I am going Machebeuf over Elizabeth 21-14.

Playoff Discussion

Kent Denver got the automatic berth into the playoffs when they beat Machebeuf last week. They are in the hunt for the #1 or #2 seed. Kent Denver will probably finish with the #2 seed due to their final opponent being a 1-win team and Platte Valley who is #1 currently faces a 4-4 team. Machebeuf currently sit #11 in the RPI and a win locks them into the playoffs. If Machebeuf loses their RPI could fall around the .580 to .590 range and in my eyes, are already a lock for the playoffs. Elizabeth like Machebeuf needs a win to lock themselves into the playoffs. If Elizabeth loses their RPI could fall to .550 to .560 and are squarely on the bubble with a loss. They are being chased by Valley, Coal Ridge, Brush, Delta, and Alamosa for the final spots. I see the Colorado League getting 3 teams into the playoffs

#2 Kent Denver at Sheridan #10 Machebeuf at Elizabeth

Ridgeview Academy at Englewood

RPI: #2 Kent Denver, #11 Machebeuf, #14 Elizabeth, #28 Englewood, #25 Ridgeview, #28 Sheridan

Flatirons League

Flatirons League championship will be decided this week when Faith Christian travels to Middle Park. Middle Park will need a league championship to get into the playoffs. Even with a win over Faith Christian it would go into a tie breaker scenario with D’Evelyn and Faith Christian. Middle Park has struggled playing defense against top opponents and gave up 80 points to Aspen, 47 to Academy, and 55 to D’Evelyn. Middle Park will need to play their best game of the season offensively and defensively to pull the upset. Faith Christian has cruised through league besides their thrilling 14-7 win over D’Evelyn. Faith Christian will be the heavy favorite in this game and should cruise to a victory. I have them winning 48-14. The two other league games are D’Evelyn at Denver West and Jefferson at Arvada.

Playoff Discussion

Faith Christian is #8 in the RPI and with the league title get a home game. Faith Christian will only minimally improve their RPI with a win and maybe move up into the .640 range. The #6 seed but more than likely the #7 seed is what Faith Christian is looking at. D’Evelyn is the only other team in the Flatirons with a shot at the playoffs. Everyone else is over #30 in RPI. D’Evelyn currently is #16 and would be the final team into the playoffs. D’Evelyn cannot lose this game or they will be eliminated. D’Evelyn with a win could see their RPI move to .535 to .545. That still has them on the bubble and is going to make the race for the final playoff spot very fun to watch. I have the Flatirons getting just Faith Christian into the playoffs with D’Evelyn getting edge out for the final spot.

#7 Faith Christian at Middle Park D’Evelyn at Denver West

Jefferson at Arvada

RPI: #8 Faith Christian, #16 D’Evelyn, #30 Middle Park, #32 Arvada, #39 Denver West, #42 Jefferson

Intermountain League

A huge game last week and a huge game this week for Alamosa. Alamosa last week lost a tight one to Pagosa Springs 24-14. The loss dropped Alamosa out of the Top 16 in the RPI and now has them fighting for their Playoff lives against Bayfield. Alamosa will need to play better run defense and their offense will need to play their best game of the season. Bayfield is pushing for the #3 seed. Bayfield already locked up the league title last week but seed wise a win is very important. The winner of this game will be decided by defense and Bayfield has the leg up. I am going with Bayfield to win 35-10 and lock the league title. Delta and Pagosa Springs both should also win this week and the race for the playoffs will be very interesting.

Playoff Discussion

Bayfield with a win over Alamosa locks up the #4 or #3 seed. They are only slightly behind La Junta for the #3 seed. Pagosa Springs is a lock for the playoffs with a win or lose to Montezuma-Cortez. A loss only moves their RPI around the .570 to .575 range and would still make the playoffs. Delta and Alamosa are the other two teams fighting for a playoff spot. Delta is #20 in the RPI and face winless Gunnison. A win for Delta could see their RPI around .515 to .525. They would still be trailing D’Evelyn and Delta would need some help to get into the playoffs but winning this week is still step #1. Alamosa on the other hand has a much tougher game than Delta. They play Bayfield and desperately need to upset the #1 team. What is hurting Alamosa chances at the playoffs is their OWP is currently at .376. If Alamosa loses to Bayfield, Alamosa could see their RPI move up to .530 to .535. They would still be trailing D’Evelyn but numbers could fall differently. Alamosa needs help to get into the playoffs and they need teams that they have played to win. Alamosa can solve all this by upsetting Bayfield. I have Intermountain League getting 2 teams into the playoffs with Alamosa being edge out by Coal Ridge for the #16 spot.

#1 Bayfield at Alamosa Gunnison at Delta

Montezuma-Cortez at Pagosa Springs

RPI: #4 Bayfield, #13 Pagosa Springs, #20 Delta, #21 Alamosa, #29 Montezuma-Cortez, #37 Gunnison

Patriot-East League

Platte Valley is your league Champion. They locked up the league title when they beat Brush last week 45-14. Platte Valley Hosts Weld Central and Platte Valley is hoping to keep the #1 spot in the RPI. A win is a must if they would like to be the #1 seed. Brush should grab a very important victory against Fort Lupton and well need to see where the numbers fall. A very important game is #8 Sterling hosting Valley. Valley is #17 in the RPI and would love to upset Sterling to snag one of the final playoff spots. Valley beat Fort Lupton last week 35-7. Valley at times has played very well falling to Platte Valley two weeks ago by just a few points. #8 Sterling is still in the hunt for a home playoff game. Currently #7 in the RPI they would have to try and catch Classical Academy who is #5. Sterling must take care of business and at least secure at #9 or #10 seed in the playoffs. I have Sterling winning 21-7.

Playoff Discussion

Platte Valley is looking to lock up the #1 overall seed and probably will with a win. Sterling is a lock to make the playoffs with a win or lose. Valley and Brush are the two teams fighting to make the playoffs. Brush should grab a win in their final game moving them to 4-5. They are #19 in the RPI and their final game won’t help their OWP. Brush if they win their final game could see their RPI move to .520 to .530 which would have them barely missing the playoffs. Valley is in a must win scenario. If they upset Sterling they could see their RPI climb near the .560 range which is good enough to make the playoffs. A loss by Valley could see their RPI move to .515 to .525 and would miss the playoffs. I see the Patriot East getting two teams into the playoffs

#3 Platte Valley vs Weld Central #8 Sterling vs Valley

Fort Lupton at Brush

RPI: #1 Platte Valley, #7 Sterling, #17 Valley, #19 Brush, #26 Weld Central, #34 Fort Lupton

Patriot-West League

The Patriot West League title will be decided this week when Eaton hosts Resurrection Christian. Resurrection Christian has had some growing pains after losing a very talented senior class. They have rebounded well this year picking up a huge win against Pinnacle last week 48-0. They are now 5-3 overall with 3 good loses and now are 1 win away from another league title. The strength of this team has been their defense and it’s very good and they will need it against a dynamic offense. #9 Eaton is 6-2 overall and picked up a huge win against Prospect Ridge 30-0. Eaton is looking to dethrone Resurrection Christian and have a very good shot. Eaton has a very dynamic offense and must score points. Eaton defense has been spotty at times and has shown in their 2 loses. Eaton is the favorite in the game and I have them winning the league title 35-24. The two other games this week in league are Academy at Prospect Ridge. This is a big game for Prospect Ridge and could grab 4 wins on the season and really give them some momentum heading into next year. The last league game is University at Pinnacle. University should easily win and move to 4-5 on the year.

Playoff Discussion

With the league title on the line the loser could have their playoff lives in limbo. Neither team is in the top 10 of the RPI so the league title game has more than just a home game on the line. Eaton and Resurrection Christian are the only two teams with playoff hopes still alive. Prospect Ridge and University are just too far back and even with wins they would barely brake the .500 mark. Eaton and Resurrection Christian have a huge battle this week. But I honestly, think both teams even with loses will get into the playoffs. If Eaton loses their RPI could drop to around .580 to .585 and if Resurrection Christian loses their RPI could drop around .565 to .570 and both would be high enough to get into the playoffs. I see the Patriot West getting 2 teams into the playoffs.

#9 Eaton vs Resurrection Christian Academy at Prospect Ridge

University at Pinnacle

RPI: #12 Eaton, #15 Resurrection Christian, #24 Prospect Ridge, #25 University, #27 Academy, #40 Pinnacle

Tri-Peaks League

The league title was decided last week when La Junta beat Salida 39-16. La Junta is your league champion again and looking to defend their state championship. La Junta faces Florence this week and should grab the win. Salida this week hosts Lamar and should grab a win. #5 Classical Academy travels to Manitou Springs this week and will be the tougher of the 3 games in the Tri-Peaks. I have Classical Academy winning the game 42-14. The Tri-Peaks currently has 3 teams as locks for the playoffs. La Junta, Classical Academy, and Salida are all locks for the playoffs. Manitou Springs is sitting #22. They would need to upset Classical Academy and then need a ton of help to get into the playoffs. With an upset of Classical Academy, Manitou Springs RPI could raise to .525 to .530 and would be just outside the playoffs. Classical Academy currently would get the 1 extra home game but cannot be upset by Manitou Springs. I have the Tri-Peaks getting 3 teams into the playoffs.

#4 La Junta vs Florence #5 Classical Academy at Manitou Springs

Lamar at Salida

RPI: #3 La Junta, #5 Classical Academy, #9 Salida, #22 Manitou Springs, #31 Florence, #33 Lamar

Western Slope League

The Western Slope League champion is Basalt. Basalt clinched the league title with a dominate 47-0 win over Moffat County. Basalt has dominated league play and are hoping to show they can play with anyone. 3 other teams are still looking to make it into the playoffs they are Aspen, Coal Ridge, and Moffat County. Aspen this week hosts Moffat County and is a big game for both teams. Aspen is looking to finish a great year going 8-1 after their year last year is outstanding and they would love to finish the run and finish second in the Western Slope. With their dynamic offense you just never know in the playoffs. If Aspen loses they could see their RPI drop around .570 to .575. Moffat County is a bit too far out to make a run for the playoffs. The most I see their RPI rising is around the .500. The final team looking for a playoff spot is Coal Ridge. First thing first is taking care of business against Steamboat Springs. A win is very important and a loss eliminates them from any chance at the playoffs. A win by Coal Ridge could make their RPI .545 to .550 and they would be in running for the final spot. I see the Western Slope getting 3 teams into the playoffs with Coal Ridge snagging the final spot.

#6 Basalt vs Roaring Fork Moffat County at Aspen

Coal Ridge vs Steamboat Springs

RPI: #6 Basalt, #10 Aspen, #18 Coal Ridge, #23 Moffat County, #36 Steamboat Springs, #41 Roaring Fork

MileHigh Prep Report Playoff Team Predictions

These are the 16 teams I think will make the playoffs. They are in order by league and not seed.

Colorado League

Kent Denver, Machebeuf, Elizabeth

Flatirons League

Faith Christian

Intermountain League

Bayfield, Pagosa Springs

Patriot-East League