Girls Basketball Class 3A Playoff Projections
Several leagues have wrapped up play or some of the final games will be played this week/weekend. The Confluence league is one of the hard leagues tournament will be one of the harder leagues tournament to figure out.
The Confluence League
The Confluence League and the Colorado 7 Leagues 3A teams play for the 2 automatic spots in the tournament. More than likely this league tournament will only get their 2 automatic teams in. I am still going with Weld Central to win their league and Ridge View Academy to finish second.
The Frontier League
Regular season champion is Clear Creek but they are in 2A. So the Frontier league will also be another league with the chance at only 2 teams making it into Regionals. Middle Park is still running strong with 1 lose to Clear Creek and have wins over Bennett and The Academy. Bennett and the Academy will fight it out for the #2 spot and an automatic berth.
The Intermountain league
The IML is all but wrapped up with Centauri as the #1 seed and Pagosa Springs as the #2 seed. Those two plus Alamosa (20) will be the only teams advancing to Regionals. Bayfield, Montezuma-Cortez, and Monte Vista would need a second-place or championship finish to get into regionals and all 3 are outside the Top 40.
The Metro League
The Metro League is settled as well with Lutheran and Kent Denver locking up the #1 and #2 seeds. Lutheran and Kent Denver are also the favorites to meet again in the League Championship. The Metro league will have Lutheran & Kent Denver plus Jefferson Academy, Colorado Academy, and St. Mary’s Academy into Regionals. Faith Christian and Machebeuf are also in the hunt for a regional spot but both schools sit at 24 and 25 in the RPI and could use a win in the League tournament to help secure a spot. SkyView Academy is also in the running at #38 but would need a strong showing in the Metro League Tournament.
The Patriot League
The Patriot league is wrapped up with Sterling as your League Champion. Eaton is #2 and Resurrection Christian is your #3. The Patriot league will be very competitive with 6 teams over .500 and should be a good race for the two automatic berths. Sterling and Eaton are still my picks for the two automatic berths. Sterling, Eaton, Resurrection Christian, and University are all solid locks for Regionals. Brush and Liberty Common are both in the Top 32 but both will need solid outings in the tournament to help secure their spot.
The Tri-Peaks League
The Tri-Peaks was wrapped up last week when St. Mary’s beat Colorado Springs Christian. St. Mary’s is your #1, Colorado Springs Christian is your #2, and Lamar is your #3. Those 3 plus Manitou Springs and Vanguard are all locks to make it to Regionals. Salida and Florence are still on the bubble and with solid outings in the District tournament will help secure their spots. Florence could be the final at Large team into the Regional Field or they may need to move up to the #28 spot so a solid outing in the League Tournament is a must.
The Western Slope League
Cedaredge, Moffat County, and Delta are all tied for first with 1 lose. Cedaredge has already beat Delta and has the head to head over them. Moffat County and Delta play tonight and a could also help resolve the #1 seed picture. Delta must win and hope for a Moffat County win over Cedaredge to get the #1 seed. Cedaredge must make sure to beat Roaring Fork and then Saturday have their fate in their own hands. I am going with Cedaredge and Moffat County as my two automatic qualifiers, Delta and Grand Valley also look like solid locks for Regionals. Roaring Fork, Coal Ridge and Olathe are all on the bubble and with the possibility of only the Top 28 RPI getting in all three are looking for solid League Tournament to secure their spot.
Class 3A
The playoff format for 3A goes as follows; Districts Determine own seeding Criteria for the district tournament, Seven Districts each qualify two teams to the state brackets, with the remaining 18 teams determined by RPI, Qualifiers advance to a 32 teams regional/state brackets where the districts champions plus the next highest RPI finisher will host the regions, Seven District Champions and the 1st highest RPI qualifier will be placed on bracket in order 1-8 and will host the first round and sweet 16 games; seeds 9-32 will be placed on bracket in RPI, avoiding league/district opponents in the first round when possible, Seeds 24-32 may be moved to accommodate geographical considerations. District Champions must finish in the Top 16 to host in the first and second round.
League Champions ()=RPI
Confluence League: Weld Central (31) (will not host)
Frontier: Middle Park (36) (will not host)
Intermountain: Centauri (2)
Metro: Lutheran (8)
Patriot: Sterling (7)
Tri Peaks: St. Mary’s (1)
Western Slope: Cedaredge (5)
Will Host regional: Kent Denver (3), Pagosa Springs (4), Colorado Springs Christian (6)
Automatic Qualifier
Eagle Ridge Academy, Bennett, Pagosa Springs, Kent Denver, Eaton, Colorado Springs Christian, Moffat County
At Large Teams
Lamar, Manitou Springs, Jefferson Academy, Resurrection Christian, Colorado Academy, Delta, Grand Valley, Vanguard, St. Mary’s Academy, University, Alamosa, Salida, Stargate School, Faith Christian, Machebeuf, Brush, Roaring Fork, Coal Ridge
First Four Out
Olathe, Florence, Liberty Common, The Academy
Top 8 seeds based on my Predictions and RPI:
#1 St. Mary’s
#2 Centauri
#3 Kent Denver
#4 Pagosa Springs
#5 Cedaredge
#6 Colorado Springs Christian
#7 Sterling
#8 Lutheran
Remaining Seeds Based upon RPI:
9 Lamar, 10 Manitou Springs, 11 Jefferson Academy, 12 Resurrection Christian, 13 Eaton, 14 Colorado Academy, 15 Delta, 16 Moffat County, 17 Vanguard, 18 St. Mary’s Academy, 19 Grand Valley, 20 University, 21 Alamosa, 22 Salida, 23 Stargate School, 24 Faith Christian, 25 Brush 26 Machebeuf, 27 Roaring Fork, 28 Weld Central, 29 Coal Ridge, 30 Middle Park, 31 Bennett, 32 Eagle Ridge Academy
Bracket: District Matchups will be avoided in first round and 24-32 can be moved due to geography. I will not move teams due to geography this week and will look more into that next week. Also no consolation bracket will be played only Championship and 3rd place game.
Bracket
*#1 St. Mary’s vs #32 Eagle Ridge Academy
#16 Moffat County vs #17 Vanguard
*#8 Lutheran vs #25 Brush
#9 Lamar vs #24 Faith Christian
*#5 Cedaredge vs #28 Weld Central
#12 Resurrection Christian vs #21 Alamosa
*#4 Pagosa Springs vs #29 Coal Ridge
#13 Eaton vs #20 University
*#2 Centauri vs #31 Bennett
#15 Delta vs #18 St. Mary’s Academy
*#7 Sterling vs #26 Machebeuf
#10 Manitou Springs vs #23 Stargate School
*#6 Colorado Springs Christian vs #27 Roaring Fork
#11 Jefferson Academy vs #22 Salida
*#3 Kent Denver vs #30 Middle Park
#14 Colorado Academy vs #19 Grand Valley
*= Regional Host
Final 8 Predictions (Based on Bracket and Observations)
Of Course, this could change based on who actually plays each other and how the bracket lines up. This is just a prediction for this week based on what I have in the Projections.
#1 St. Mary’s vs #9 Lamar
#4 Pagosa Springs vs #5 Cedaredge
#2 Centauri vs #7 Sterling
#3 Kent Denver vs #6 Colorado Springs Christian
MileHigh Prep Report 