Boys Basketball Class 3A Playoff Projections

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Boys Basketball Class 3A Playoff Projections

So far for 3A District Tournament could be the make or break for teams.

Confluence

In the Confluence league it has come down to four teams fighting for the two automatic spots. DSST-Green Valley Ranch is the only team with a shot at an At-Large berth. I am sticking with DSST-Green Valley and Ridgeview Academy to both win and move for the automatic berths. They will both be on the road and very low seeds and will make it harder for teams to grab an at-large berth taking two spots from teams.

Frontier

The top 4 seeds in the Frontier are in the Semifinal and two of the 4 have nearly locked up berths. Jefferson is sitting at #20 and is less on the bubble but are not a complete lock. The Academy is sitting at #25 and would love to grab one more win to hold of any teams from jumping them. Pinnacle who is the #5 seed is also on the bubble at #23. Pinnacle will be looking to finish 5^th on the Consolation side to lock up their spot.

Intermountain

Things have gotten very interesting in the Intermountain League. Montezuma-Cortez has taken a solid step towards regionals, but Centauri is going the opposite way. Centauri was at #17 after their upset win over Alamosa but have since dropped all the way to #27 and a 3 point lose to Montezuma-Cortez in the opening round of District has them feeling the pressure. Centauri only has a .019 lead on #34/35 Monte Vista/Eaton. With Centauri not playing any more games it comes down to if they can hold on to one of the final spots. Monte Vista pulled a huge stunner upsetting #3 Pagosa Springs 43-40. A buzzer beater sends Monte Vista into the Semifinals and two more games. Monte Vista will still need some help sitting at #34. Alamosa, Bayfield, and Pagosa Springs are all solid locks for Regionals.

Metro

The Metro League has been very competitive all season and the final 4 teams have all taken turns beating each other besides Lutheran who has been very successful in League play. Kent Denver, Lutheran, Faith Christian, Manual, and Colorado Academy are all locks for Regionals. Jefferson Academy is currently sitting at #36 and are on the outside looking in. Jefferson Academy is going to need a 5^th Place finish in the Metro and will still need some help as well. They are only .021 behind #27 Centauri so they are not eliminated yet. Machebeuf is sitting at 44 and are eliminated from making Regionals.

Patriot

The top 4 seeds in the Patriot are into the semifinals. Sterling, Platte Valley, Strasburg, and Resurrection Christian are all locks for Regionals and Sterling and Platte Valley are both on pace to host a Regional. Brush is #26 in the RPI and like Centauri are very much on the bubble. Brush is only .020 ahead of #34 Monte Vista and Brush may need a Top 5 finish to lock themselves into Regionals. Another lose for Brush to Estes Park on Wednesday could spell doom from Brush. Frontier Academy is #29 and would be one of the last teams into the field. Frontier Academy is done playing in their District Tournament and their fate is very much in the air. They are only .09 ahead of #34 Monte Vista and could easily get jumped by many teams. #33 Estes Park has a monster game against Brush tonight 2/21 and the winner could really help their movement towards making to regionals. More than likely teams are going to need to finish in the Top 30 of the RPI to make the field and Cedaredge is only .05 ahead of Estes Park. Eaton is #35 and like Estes Park has a huge game against Valley tonight 2/21. If Eaton can beat Valley they will move up but a lose will probably eliminate them for Regionals. Valley is #39 and are .025 behind Cedaredge. Valley would need a lot of help and a 5^th place finish to snag a regional spot.

Tri-Peaks League

The Tri-Peaks has their Quarterfinals games tonight and probably a better look at some teams will come after those games. Vanguard, Colorado Springs Christian, and La Junta are probably locks for Regionals. La Junta is still on the bubble a bit but a win over St. Mary’s would probably give them a lock for Regionals. Salida is #28 and are fighting for the Regional lives. Salida is only .005 ahead of Estes Park who is #33. Salida will need a win over Manitou Springs to feel secure but a lose will make things very interesting for Salida. St. Mary’s is #31 and is .001 behind Salida. St. Mary’s has a monster game against La Junta tonight and the winner will be in much better shape than the loser. St. Mary’s is only .009 ahead of #34 Monte Vista and .005 ahead of Estes Park. Manitou Springs is sitting at #38 and will need a ton of help to get into Regionals. A win over Salida would be a huge step but a lose will probably eliminate Manitou Springs from Regionals. Lamar is #41 and are probably going to need a Top 2 finish to grab a spot at Regionals.

Western Slope

The Top 4 seed in the Western Slope are into the Semifinals and all four feel pretty solid with their chances at Regionals. Coal Ridge, Roaring Fork, Grand Valley, and Delta are all in the Top 20 of the RPI and locks for Regionals. Cedaredge is #30 in the RPI and would be the final team into Regionals. Cedaredge is barely holding onto the final spot and are tied with St. Mary’s but only .005 ahead of Estes Park. I do not believe the Western Slope is playing a Consolation Bracket, so Cedaredge is done already and their fate is in the RPI #’s. Olathe is #37 and are already eliminated like Cedaredge from the District Tournament. Olathe is probably eliminated from Regionals.

Class 3A

The playoff format for 3A goes as follows; Districts Determine own seeding Criteria for the district tournament, Seven Districts each qualify two teams to the state brackets, with the remaining 18 teams determined by RPI, Qualifiers advance to a 32 teams regional/state brackets where the districts champions plus the next highest RPI finisher will host the regions, Seven District Champions and the 1^st highest RPI qualifier will be placed on bracket in order 1-8 and will host the first round and sweet 16 games; seeds 9-32 will be placed on bracket in RPI, avoiding league/district opponents in the first round when possible, Seeds 24-32 may be moved to accommodate geographical considerations, District Champions must finish in the Top 16 to host!

League Champions ()=RPI

Confluence League: DSST-Green Valley Ranch (32) (Will Not Host)

Frontier: DST-Stapleton (14)

Intermountain: Alamosa (2)

Metro: Kent Denver (5)

Patriot: Sterling (1)

Tri Peaks: Vanguard (6)

Western Slope: Coal Ridge (4)

Will Host but not League Champions: Platte Valley (3), Bayfield (7)

Automatic Qualifier ()=RPI

Ridge View Academy (42), The Academy (25), Bayfield (7), Lutheran (11), Platte Valley (3), Colorado Springs Christian (21), Roaring Fork (12)

At Large Teams

Strasburg, Faith Christian, Resurrection Christian, Manual, Grand Valley, Arrupe Jesuit, Delta, Pagosa Springs, Colorado Academy, Jefferson, La Junta, Pinnacle, Montezuma-Cortez, Brush, Centauri, Salida, Frontier Academy, Cedaredge

First Four Out

Estes Park, Monte Vista, Eaton, Jefferson Academy

Top 8 seeds based on RPI:

#1 Sterling

#2 Alamosa

#3 Platte Valley

#4 Coal Ridge

#5 Kent Denver

#6 Vanguard

#7 Bayfield

#8 DSST-Stapleton

Remaining Seeds Based upon RPI:
9 Strasburg, 10 Faith Christian, 11 Resurrection Christian, 12 Lutheran, 13 Roaring Fork, 14 Manual, 15 Grand Valley, 16 Arrupe Jesuit, 17 Delta, 18 Colorado Academy, 19 Pagosa Springs, 20 Jefferson, 21 Colorado Springs Christian, 22 La Junta, 23 Pinnacle, 24 The Academy, 25 Montezuma-Cortez, 26 Brush, 27 Centauri, 28 Salida, 29 Frontier Academy, 30 Cedaredge, 31 DSST-Green Valley, 32 Ridgeview Academy

Bracket: District Matchups will be avoided in first round and 24-32 can be moved due to geography. Also, no consolation bracket will be played only Championship and 3^rd place game.

Bracket

*#1 Sterling vs #32 Ridge View Academy

#16 Arrupe Jesuit vs #17 Delta

*#8 DSST-Stapleton vs #25 Montezuma-Cortez

#9 Strasburg vs #24 The Academy

*#5 Kent Denver vs #28 Salida

#12 Lutheran vs 21 Colorado Springs Christian

*#4 Coal Ridge vs #29 Frontier Academy

#13 Roaring Fork vs #20 Jefferson

*#2 Alamosa vs #31 DSST-Green Valley Ranch

#15 Grand Valley vs #18 Colorado Academy

*#7 Bayfield vs #26 Brush