Girls Basketball Class 3A Playoff Projections
Several leagues have wrapped up play or some of the final games will be played this week/weekend. The Confluence league is one of the hard leagues tournament will be one of the harder leagues tournament to figure out.
The Confluence League
Currently the confluence league has a good shot of getting 3 teams into the field. Stargate School is #25 and Weld Central is #32 and both have a shot at an at-large berth. These two play each other and the winner get an automatic berth. Eagle Ridge Academy is sitting way back and will more than likely need the automatic berth to get into Regionals.
The Frontier League
The Frontier League more than likely is a 2 berth league but The Academy is #30. The Academy plays Bennet who is #35 and the winner gets an automatic berth but the loser more than likely will be eliminated. Middle Park is sitting at #34 and face DSST-Stapleton and the winner gets the automatic berth. Middle Park only way to sneak into Regionals is with a win and same goes to DSST-Stapleton.
The Intermountain league
Centauri and Pagosa Springs are locks for Regionals but both are hoping for a rubber match and both are hoping to host a Regional as well. Centauri is #3 and Pagosa is #4 and both should host a Regional barring an upset in the semifinals. Alamosa is #23 and is still on the bubble and at least a 3rd place finish will get them to regionals. Bayfield is #41 and will more than likely need to upset Centauri to grab an automatic berth.
The Metro League
The top 4 seeds all made it into the semifinals. Kent Denver, Lutheran, Colorado Academy, and Faith Christian are all in the Top 20 of the RPI and all locks for Regionals. Joining them is Jefferson Academy who is 13 and St. Mary’s Academy at #19. St. Mary’s Academy plays Jefferson Academy tomorrow and is a very important game. Machebeuf is #24 and play SkyView Academy who is #33. Machebeuf with a win would nearly lock them into Regionals but a loss and things get interesting. SkyView Academy will need to move up and a lose will eliminate them from Regionals. In total the Metro league will be well represented at Regionals.
The Patriot League
Sterling early on looked like it could be having a down year but picked up their play in 2018. Sterling won the Patriot league and also are a lock for Regionals. Joining Sterling with locks are Resurrection Christian, and Eaton. University is #22 in the RPI and play Sterling tonight which will improve their RPI regardless. University will be on the bubble though due to the possibility of only the Top 28 or 30 teams getting in. Brush is #26 and must get a win against Strasburg tonight to keep their bubble from being popped. They are only .007 ahead of Roaring Fork who is #28. Liberty Common is #29 and could be one of the few teams left out or one of the last teams in. Liberty Common play Platte Valley tonight and a win is a must for them as well.
The Tri-Peaks League
The Tri-Peaks has 3 of the top teams in 3A and all 3 have a good shot at making state. St. Mary’s is #1 in the RPI, Colorado Springs Christian is #6 in the RPI and Lamar is #8 in the RPI and are all locks for Regionals. Manitou Springs is #11 and also a lock for Regionals. Salida is #20 in the RPI but have at least assured themselves 2 games against top talent and will boost their RPI and they are a near lock but well see what their RPI looks like after Friday. Vanguard like Salida is a near lock and they play in the consolation bracket again Buena Vista. A win by Vanguard will lock them into Regionals. Florence is the #27 RPI but they will more than likely need an upset over Manitou Springs to help their cause. Florence with another lose will drop in the RPI and then would need some help to stay in. Buena Vista is #36 and will need a 5th place finish and some help to move into the Top 30.
The Western Slope League
What an up and down year the Western Slope has been. Moffat County won the league by upsetting Cedaredge in the final game of the season. Cedaredge is #5 in the RPI and are a lock for Regionals but are battling to host a Regional and of course win the Western Slope. Delta, Grand Valley, and Moffat County all won in the Quarterfinals and are all in the Top 20 RPI and are locks for Regionals. Moffat County plays Delta and Grand Valley plays Cedaredge and a trip to the finals and potential regional host is on the line. Roaring Fork comes in at #28 and could be the last team into Regionals. They don’t have any other games and their fate rests in the RPI. The same goes with Olathe who is sitting at #31.
Class 3A
The playoff format for 3A goes as follows; Districts Determine own seeding Criteria for the district tournament, Seven Districts each qualify two teams to the state brackets, with the remaining 18 teams determined by RPI, Qualifiers advance to a 32 teams regional/state brackets where the districts champions plus the next highest RPI finisher will host the regions, Seven District Champions and the 1st highest RPI qualifier will be placed on bracket in order 1-8 and will host the first round and sweet 16 games; seeds 9-32 will be placed on bracket in RPI, avoiding league/district opponents in the first round when possible, Seeds 24-32 may be moved to accommodate geographical considerations. District Champions must finish in the Top 16 to host in the first and second round.
League Champions ()=RPI
Confluence League: Weld Central (32) (will not host)
Frontier: Middle Park (34) (will not host)
Intermountain: Centauri (3)
Metro: Lutheran (7)
Patriot: Sterling (9)
Tri Peaks: St. Mary’s (1)
Western Slope: Moffat County (17) (I am guessing if they win the Western Slope their RPI will move up)
Will Host regional: Kent Denver (3), Pagosa Springs (4), Cedaredge (5)
Automatic Qualifier
Eagle Ridge Academy (40), Bennett (35), Pagosa Springs (4), Kent Denver (2), Eaton (14), Colorado Springs Christian (6), Grand Valley (16)
At Large Teams
Lamar, Resurrection Christian, Manitou Springs, Jefferson Academy, Colorado Academy, Delta, Moffat County, Faith Christian, St. Mary’s Academy, Salida, Vanguard, University, Alamosa, Machebeuf, Stargate School, Brush, Florence, Roaring Fork
First Four Out
Liberty Common, The Academy, Olathe, SkyView Academy
Top 8 seeds based on my Predictions and RPI:
#1 St. Mary’s
#2 Kent Denver
#3 Centauri
#4 Pagosa Springs
#5 Cedaredge
#6 Lutheran
#7 Sterling
#8 Moffat County
Remaining Seeds Based upon RPI:
9 Colorado Springs Christian, 10 Lamar, 11 Resurrection Christian, 12 Manitou Springs, 13 Jefferson Academy, 14 Colorado Academy, 15 Eaton, 16 Delta, 17 Faith Christian, 18 St. Mary’s Academy, 19 Grand Valley, 20 Salida, 21 University, 22 Vanguard, 23 Alamosa, 24 Machebeuf, 25 Brush, 26 Stargate School, 27 Roaring Fork, 28 Florence, 29 Weld Central, 30 Middle Park, 31 Bennett, 32 Eagle Ridge Academy
Bracket: District Matchups will be avoided in first round and 24-32 can be moved due to geography. I will not move teams due to geography this week and will look more into that next week. Also no consolation bracket will be played only Championship and 3rd place game.
Bracket
*#1 St. Mary’s vs #32 Eagle Ridge Academy
#16 Delta vs #17 Faith Christian
*#8 Moffat County vs #25 Brush
#9 Colorado Springs Christian vs #24 Machebeuf
*#5 Cedaredge vs #28 Florence
#12 Manitou Springs vs #21 University
*#4 Pagosa Springs vs #29 Weld Central
#13 Jefferson Academy vs #20 Salida
*#2 Kent Denver vs #31 Bennett
#15 Eaton vs #18 St. Mary’s Academy
*#7 Sterling vs #26 Stargate School
#10 Lamar vs #23 Alamosa
*#6 Lutheran vs #27 Roaring Fork
#11 Resurrection Christian vs #22 Vanguard
*#3 Centauri vs #30 Middle Park
#14 Colorado Academy vs #19 Grand Valley
*= Regional Host
Final 8 Predictions (Based on Bracket and Observations)
Of Course, this could change based on who actually plays each other and how the bracket lines up. This is just a prediction for this week based on what I have in the Projections.
#1 St. Mary’s vs #9 Colorado Springs Christian
#4 Pagosa Springs vs #5 Cedaredge
#2 Kent Denver vs #10 Lamar
#3 Centauri vs #6 Lutheran
MileHigh Prep Report 