Class 1A Boys Basketball Breakdown

Class 1A Boys Basketball District Predictions Week 11

Picture by the Prairie Post (Prairie vs Caliche)

Class 1A Boys Basketball District Predictions Week 11

Final week of the regular season.  It’s crunch time and improving your seed for District is key to reaching regionals.  So, a few updates from last week.  The bulletin states that all Districts must seed using RPI.  For Regionals Region 2 & 3 will seed using RPI and avoiding any previous district matchups.  With this I will be making changes to my regional predictions and when looking at each District I will be factoring in the RPI.  For my predictions I will be using the Districts from the CHSAA bulletin which is how team will qualify for regionals.  I also see they have reverted to 2019 rules to qualify for regionals and state.  I will post that below.  I will also post a copy of the new rules from the bulletin itself and if regions or district are doing something different please let me know.

How to Qualify for Regionals and State

8 District each qualify 2 or 3 teams to three regionals.  The three regionals are posted below

Region 1Region 2Region 3
District 1 & 8District 4, 5, 7District 2, 3, 6

The #1 and #2 seeds from Districts 1 and 8 will be paired, while the #1, #2, and #3 seeds from Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 will advance to a regional site.  In Region 2 (4,5,7) and Region 3 (2, 3, 6), the nine qualify teams will be seeded by RPI avoiding any previous district matchups.  In Region 1, District 1 and 8 #1s will play each other districts #2.  Region 1 receives 2 state qualifiers, Region 2 & 3 receive three state qualifiers each.

After the Final 8 teams have been determined the teams will be re-seeded base on the following: The eight regional winners advance to the state tournament where they will be seeded by seeding criteria approved in a committee, made up of administrative representatives.  The committee may use the following criteria to seed the final pairings: final RPI, previous district matchup’s, head-to-head competition, and common opponents.

A consolation bracket will be played in the Great 8.

District 1

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Caprock Academy

2. Dove Creek

Contenders:

Ouray

District 1 only gets 2 teams to regionals.  Caprock Academy is still the team I think wins this District Tournament.  Caprock Academy will be battle tested playing a 2A schedule but most teams in this District do the same.  Caprock Academy is currently 15-2 and a 60 to 44 win over Ouray this past weekend does show this is the team to beat in District 1.  Caprock Academy continues to play tough in the 2A League and are on a 8 game winning streak.  I am sticking with Dove Creek as my team to finish in second place.  If Ouray and Dove Creek meet in the District tournament it will be the rubber match with each team winning a game against each other.  Dove Creek closes the season against Monticello UT and Nucla.  Ouray still holds onto the #3 spot.  Ouray has played a tough schedule and they bounced back from their OT loss to Dove Creek beating Nucla 59-33.  Ouray has 1 game remaining against Dolores and no score was reported from that game last night.

RPI for District 1

#5 Caprock Academy, #28 Ouray, #31 Dove Creek, #40 De Beque

District 2

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Granada

2. McClave

3. Wiley

Contenders:

Cheyenne Wells

Cheraw

District 2 gets 3 team into regionals and will compete against District 3 & 6 at Regionals.  If the bulletin is correct and all Districts are seeded by RPI then as of 2/16 the tournament would be seeded as follows; #1 Granada, #2 McClave, #3 Wiley, #4 Cheraw, #5 Cheyenne Wells, #6 Eads, and #7 Kit Carson.  Granada would get a bye into the semifinals and everyone else would play a pigtail game.  Winners keep their hopes alive for a berth to regionals.  The most intriguing matchups would be Cheraw vs Cheyenne Wells in the pigtail round.  I do think Eads vs Wiley could also be very entertaining.  I am still going with Granada as my team to win the District 2 tournament.  Granada is 17-0 on the season and they have picked up back-to-back solid wins over Cheyenne Wells and Wiley.  Granada will look to capture the league title when they face McClave on Friday.  McClave is my pick to finish in second place.  McClave continues to play well in 2022.  McClave is 13-4 currently and they face Wiley Thursday and Granada Friday so we could easily see McClave move from the #2 seed up or down.  I do like McClave over Wiley but the McClave vs Granada game should be a good one, I am going with Granada over McClave.  Wiley stays as my team to snag the final automatic berth.  Wiley is currently 11-6 and coming off 3 straight losses.  Wiley will end the regular season with games against McClave and Deerfield KS.   Wiley will hope to get at least 1 win to get some momentum headed into the District Tournament.  Cheyenne Wells and Cheraw are both contenders for a top 3 spot.  These two teams meet on Friday and could be the difference between who is hosting the game next week.  This should be a good game and any advantage will be key.  I am picking Cheyenne Wells over Cheraw in this game, but it will be a good game.

RPI for District 2

#2 Granada, #8 McClave, #10 Wiley, #16 Cheraw, #17 Cheyenne Wells, #36 Eads, #38 Kit Carson

District 3

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Springfield

2. Kim/Branson

3. Primero

Contenders:

La Veta

District 3 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 2 & District 6.  District 3 so far has been a battle and has been very hard to separate the top 4 teams.  If all District tournament are seeded by RPI the seeds as of today (2/16) would be as follows; #1 Springfield, #2 Kim/Branson, #3 Primero, #4 La Veta, #5 Manzanola, #6 South Baca, and #7 Walsh.  Springfield would get the bye into the Semifinals and would be one win away from Regionals.  I really do feel as if Springfield, Kim/Branson, Primero, and La Veta are all on a collision course to fight for the top 3 spots.  I am sticking with Springfield as my team to win the District 3 tournament.  Springfield has been consistent against teams in their District.  Springfield picked up a key win over La Veta last week in OT.  Springfield must face Kim/Branson on Friday and will probably be for the #1 or #2 seed in this District.  Kim/Branson is my pick to finish in 2nd place.  Kim/Branson also picked up a hard-fought win over La Veta by 7.  Kim/Branson has one final game against Springfield and as mentioned above is the game to decide the #1 or #2 seed.  I am picking Springfield over Kim/Branson in a great game.  Primero stays as my pick to finish in 3rd place and snag the final automatic spot.  Primero had a solid week last week going 2-1 but playing tough in all 3 games.  Primero picked up another key win last night beating 2A Hoehne.  Primero ends the season against Moffat, and they have leaped La Veta in the RPI so winning their final game will be key to holding onto the #3 seed.  La Veta is my pick to finish in 4th and just miss out on Regionals.  La Veta last week showed they are no joke within the district and could upset a team or two.  La Veta lost by 6 to Springfield in OT and 7 to Kim/Branson.  La Veta has two games left against Sierra Grande and South Baca.  La Veta with an upset of Sierra Grande would probably leap back ahead of Primero in the RPI.  It will come down to La Veta final game against South Baca if they have a shot at leaping Primero for the #3 seed.

RPI for District 3

#21 Springfield, #22 Kim/Branson, #27 Primero, #30 La Veta, #48 Manzanola, #49 South Baca, #56 Walsh

District 4

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Haxtun

2. Briggsdale

3. Merino

Contenders:

Prairie

Fleming

Longmont Christian

District 4 will get 3 teams into regionals.  District 4 will compete against District 5 & 7 at Regionals.  If Districts are seeded by RPI only as stated in the bulletin the seeding based on todays 2/17 RPI would be: #1 Briggsdale, #2 Haxtun, #3 Merino, #4 Prairie, #5 Longmont Christian, #6 Fleming, #7 Caliche, #8 Peetz, #9 Weldon Valley.  The #8 vs #9 teams would play a pigtail game to get to the quarterfinals.  Some very good matchups would take place in the quarterfinals and just reaching the semifinals will be a battle.  My pick to win the District tournament is Haxtun.  Haxtun continue to play well down the stretch and picked up a key win over Merino last weekend.  Haxtun ends the season against 2A Wiggins and Lone Star.  I am not sure if Haxtun RPI will jump enough to catch Briggsdale for the #1 seed.  Based on what I think the seeding could be I am going with Briggsdale to finish in second.  Briggsdale has just 1 loss on the season to Haxtun.  Briggsdale could have the easier path to the finals as the #1 seed and wouldn’t face Merino or Haxtun till the finals.  Briggsdale has one last tough game remaining on the season against Prairie this Friday.  Briggsdale cannot fall in either of their final two games to keep the #1 seed ahead of Haxtun.  Briggsdale game against Prairie will be a good one.  Merino is my pick to finish in 3rd place and snag the final automatic spot.  Merino would have to face Haxtun in the semifinals for the 3rd time this season.  Merino is 11-7 and have hit a bit of a rough patch losing 3 straight games.  Merino end the season against Wray and will be another very tough game.  Prairie is a contender to challenge for a top 3 spot.  Prairie looks to be the #4 seed in the District tournament but their RPI of 19 could improve if they upset Briggsdale on Friday.  Prairie would have to play in the Quarterfinals against Longmont Christian.  Prairie seems to have found their groove again and could push a top 3 team.  I also feel as if Longmont Christian and Fleming are contenders as well.  Longmont Christian will more than likely be the #5 seed and Fleming the #6 seed.  Both have shown at times they can upset top teams and should make for a great Quarterfinal round.

RPI for District 4

#6 Briggsdale, #9 Haxtun, #14 Merino, #19 Prairie, #25 Longmont Christian, #32 Fleming, #41 Caliche, #45 Peetz, #64 Weldon Valley

District 5

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Genoa-Hugo

2. Idalia

3. Stratton

Contenders:

Otis

Arickaree/Woodlin

District 5 gets 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 4 & 7 at regionals.   If all districts are seeded by RPI then the seeds would be as followed as of (2/16); #1 Genoa-Hugo, #2 Idalia, #3 Stratton, #4 Otis, #5 Arickaree/Woodlin, #6 Lone Star, #7 Hi-Plains, #8 Bethune, #9 Flagler, #10 Deer Trail.  Two pigtails’ games would be played between the #8 vs #9 seeds and #7 vs #10 seeds.  The Quarterfinals could feature some tough matchups with key ones between the #4 vs #5 seeds and #3 vs #6 seeds.  This past week has shown that anything can happen and the RPI has gotten very close for everyone but 1 team.  I do think that Genoa-Hugo will win the District 5 tournament.  Genoa-Hugo is currently 12-5 but coming off a 55-52 loss in OT to Kit Carson.  Genoa-Hugo has one final game against Eads as they try and bounce back before the District Tournament.  Genoa-Hugo is the only team I think with a solidified seed for the District tournament as they are 15 spots ahead of the #2 RPI in the District.  Idalia stays as my pick to finish in second place.  Idalia was on a solid winning streak but was snapped by 2A Burlington.  That loss did hurt their RPI but the battle for the #2 and #3 seed comes down to Friday night when Stratton hosts Idalia.  RPI wise they are right behind each other and should be a good game.  I am going with Idalia over Stratton this Friday.  Stratton is my pick to finish in 3rd and grab the final automatic spot.  Stratton is 7-9 overall and on a bit of a slide.  Stratton fell to contender Otis 54-49 last night.  Stratton still has 2 games remaining and they could get jumped in the RPI by Otis.  I am sticking with Stratton over Otis for the #3 spot for now but I will be watching both teams down the stretch before I make my final predictions next week.  Otis as mentioned is a contender and proved it with the win over Stratton.  They still have 2 games remaining against Flagler and Genoa-Hugo so they could improve their RPI before it’s all over.  Arickaree/Woodlin is the final contender to mention.  They are also right behind Otis in the RPI and will have the rest of the week to prepare for the District Tournament.  Arickaree/Woodlin does not play again the rest of the regular season. 

RPI for District 5

#18 Genoa-Hugo, #33 Idalia, #34 Stratton, #37 Otis, #39 Arickaree/Woodlin, #46 Lone Star, #47 Hi-Plains, #55 Bethune, #59 Flagler, #63 Deer Trail

District 6

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Sierra Grande

2. Cotopaxi

3. Creede

Contenders:

Moffat

District 6 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete with District 2 & 3 at regionals.  It seems that it is a 3-team race for the 3 automatic spots currently.  Sierra Grande stays as my pick to win the District 6 tournament.  Sierra Grande continues to play well down the stretch.  Sierra Grande close the season against La Veta and Manzanola.  The La Veta vs Sierra Grande game could be a good game and important for RPI purposes for both teams.  Cotopaxi stays as my team to finish in second place.  Cotopaxi is 10-6 overall and have picked up back-to-back wins.  Cotopaxi has 2 games to end the season with the main one coming against Creede on 2/19.  Creede is my pick to finish in 3rd place and snag the final automatic spot.  Creede is 10-4 overall and they are on a 5-game winning streak.  Creede has one final game against Cotopaxi and that happens on Saturday, I am going with Cotopaxi over Creede in that game.  Moffat could be a contender but will need to hit their stride.  Moffat has 3 games remaining.  Moffat will face Primero Thursday which is a non-league game.  Moffat ends the season against Antonito and Centennial and we will learn right before Districts if they are a contender.

RPI for District 6

#3 Sierra Grande, #24 Cotopaxi, #29 Creede, #44 Moffat, #50 Centennial, #58 Antonito

District 7

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Evangelical Christian

2. Simla

3. Hanover

Contenders:

Pikes Peak Christian

District 7 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 4 and 5 at Regionals.  If all Districts are seeded by RPI the seeds based on today’s RPI (2/16) would be: #1 Evangelical Christian, #2 Simla, #3 Hanover, #4 Pikes Peak Christian, #5 Elbert, #6 Miami-Yoder, #7 Kiowa, #8 Cripple Creek, and #9 Colorado D&B.  The #8 vs #9 seeds would play an initial Pigtail game to reach the quarterfinals.  I am sticking with ECA as my District 7 Champion.  ECA continues to play well down the stretch winning 7 straight games including key wins over Denver Waldorf and Simla most recently.  ECA has the #1 seed in the District Tournament locked down.  Simla stays as my pick to finish in second place.  Simla has also played well down the stretch winning 3 of their past 4 games.  Simla did lose by 23 to ECA last night but will hope to bounce back in their final two games.  Simla is on a collision course with Hanover for the #2 and #3 seeds.  Hanover is my pick to finish in 3rd place and snag the final automatic berth.  Hanover continues to play good basketball in 2022.  Hanover bounced back nicely from their second loss beating Miami-Yoder and Colorado D&B.  Hanover has 3 games remaining against Kiowa, Manzanola, and a big game against Pikes Peak Christian on 2/18.  If Hanover wins out, they could re-jump Simla for the #2 seed in the District Tournament.  Pikes Peak Christian looks like they could be a challenger for a top 3 spot.  PPC has battled tough against the 2 of the top 3 teams falling by just 10 to ECA.  Pikes Peak Christian has solidified a top 3 seed after they beat Elbert by 18.  PPC seems to be coming together at the right time.  PPC still gets a shot at Hanover on 2/18 and will look to improve their RPI before the District Tournament.

RPI for District 7

#1 Evangelical Christian, #13 Simla, #15 Hanover, #20 Pikes Peak Christian, #35 Elbert, #42 Miami-Yoder, #52 Kiowa

District 8 (Only 2 teams make it to Regionals)

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Belleview Christian

2. Denver Jewish Day

Contenders:

Denver Waldorf

Front Range Baptist

Flatirons Academy

Rocky Mountain Lutheran

District 8 gets just 2 teams into Regionals and will face District 1 at Regionals.  The battle for the 2 spots in this District is going to be very competitive and it has shown in league play with teams beating each other.  If seeded by RPI as of today (2/16) then seeding would be: #1 Belleview Christian, #2 Denver Jewish Day, #3 Denver Waldorf, #4 Flatirons Academy, #5 Front Range Baptist, #6 Rocky Mountain Lutheran, #7 Denver Academy of Torah, #8 Beth Eden, #9 Mile High Academy.  If nothing changes the Quarterfinals will feature some very good games mainly between the #3 vs #6 and #4 vs #5 seeds.  I honestly feel who gets hot will get the 2 automatic berths.  I am sticking with Belleview Christian as my District 8 champion.  They have the state champion experience and could be very important in a winner take all District Tournament.  Belleview Christian escaped on a buzzer beater against Flatirons Academy on Tuesday.  Belleview Christian has wrapped up their regular season.  Belleview Christian is 3 spots ahead in the RPI of Denver Jewish Day.  Denver Jewish Day is my pick to finish in second place and get the final automatic spot.  Denver Jewish Day defeated Front Range Baptist by 27 and look to be hitting their stride at the right time.  They have one last game against Clear Creek before the district tournament.  Flatirons Academy, Denver Waldorf, Front Range Baptist, and Rocky Mountain Lutheran have all proven to be contenders and it will come down to who gets hot at the right time.  Remember you have to finish top 2 in this District to go to regionals.

RPI for District 8

#4 Belleview Christian, #7 Denver Jewish Day, #11 Denver Waldorf, #12 Flatirons Academy, #23 Front Range Baptist, #26 Rocky Mountain Lutheran, #43 Denver Academy of Torah, #51 Beth Eden, #54 Mile High Academy