Boys Basketball Class 1A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 10
For my projections I am using the CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index. I am going to be predicting the District Champions and may just give a quick reason as to why I picked each District Champion. If you are a District Champion ranked in the top 16 of the Seeding Index you will automatically host a regional. Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your District. I will be giving a quick through of teams still in the hunt. At the end I pick the 8 teams I think make it to state based on my projections.
Updated 2/8 8am (When I pulled the Seeding Index)
Class 1A
- District must unanimously agree prior to the season on their own seeding criteria. If an agreement cannot be met, district Seeding will be done by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index (50% Maxpreps & 50% RPI). Maxpreps and RPI will run through Districts.
- District Winners (8) advancing to the 32-team state bracket. District Champions are guaranteed a top 8 (host slot) as long as they are in the top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index after Districts.
- Remaining 24 teams are filled in by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Any team moved up to the 1-8 slots if a District winner is not in the top 16, will be true seeded 1-8.
- Seeding criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Seed 9-16 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the FIRST ROUND ONLY. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Teams 17-32 may be moved two spots based upon geography and league/district matchups.
- First two rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in the quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total)
- Teams will be reseeded prior to the final week-state championship (Final 8). The CHSAA Index published after Districts will be the only factor for State Seeding.
- Top 8 teams will advance. Class 1A Great 8 will play a Consolation Bracket.
District Tournaments
I will be going district by district and talking about the current playoff situation. This can quickly change with an upset or a team making a run in the District Tournament. Also if you win your District you automatically qualify if you are out of regional contention below.
District 1 Champion Prediction: De Beque
De Beque still appears to be the favorite in District 1. I think Nucla, Dove Creek, and Ouray could all challenge De Beque for the district crown. All 6 teams in District 1 are still in the hunt for regionals. De Beque I think is a lock for regionals. Nucla is near lock at #18 with the remaining teams all fighting to get to regionals.(My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: De Beque (9), Nucla (18), Dove Creek (31), Ouray (32), Caprock Academy (35), North Park (38)
Lock for Regionals: De Beque (9)
Near Locks: Nucla
Bubble: Dove Creek, Ouray, Caprock Academy, North Park
Out of Regional Contention: None
District 2 Champion Prediction: Cheyenne Wells
Going to call District 2 one of the toughest District in 1A. 3 of the 7 teams sit inside the top 20 of the Seeding Index. Cheyenne Wells and McClave are the main district contenders but don’t look past Eads to push for the District Crown. I believe Cheyenne Wells, McClave, and Eads are all locks for Regionals. Cheraw, Granada, and Wiley are on the bubble. Kit Carson is out of regional contention. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: Cheyenne Wells (1), McClave (2), Eads (13), Cheraw (25), Granada (26), Wiley (34)
Lock for Regionals: Cheyenne Wells, McClave, Eads
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Cheraw, Granada, Wiley
Out of Regional Contention: Kit Carson (42)
District 3 Champion Prediction: Springfield
Springfield is the current favorite to win the district, but South Baca, Primero, and Kim/Branson should be challengers to the district crown. South Baca has already proven that anything can happen in this District when they beat Springfield. I currently believe no teams in this District are locks for Regionals. Springfield is close to a lock at #15 but a bad stretch of games could change everything. Primero, Kim/Branson, and Walsh are on the bubble. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: Springfield (15), South Baca (20), Primero (24), Kim/Branson (28), Walsh (39)
Lock for Regionals: None Yet
Near Locks: Springfield & South Baca
Bubble: Primero, Kim/Branson, Walsh
Out of Regional Contention: La Veta (44), Manzanola (51)
District 4 Champion Prediction: Peetz
Peetz is still my pick to win the District Four tournament, but Briggsdale did show they can be beat. Briggsdale and Prairie will challenge for the district crown. Peetz is a lock for regionals at #6. Prairie is in a solid spot at #19 but not a lock yet. Briggsdale and Fleming are on the bubble both sit inside the top 40 and Weldon Valley is out of regional contention. (My guess is this district will be seeded by the league standings of the North Central League. If I am wrong send me a message)
Regional Contenders: Peetz (6), Prairie (19), Briggsdale (29), Fleming (37)
Lock for Regionals: Peetz
Near Locks: Prairie
Bubble: Briggsdale, Fleming
Out of Regional Contention: Weldon Valley (48)
District 5 Champion Prediction: Stratton
District 5 is another tough district. 5 teams currently sit inside the top 16 of the seeding index. Stratton is the favorite but look for Arickaree, Idalia, and Otis to all challenge for the District crown. Stratton, Arickaree, Idalia, and Otis I believe are all locks for regionals. Hi-Plains and Lone Star are both on the bubble but are on the outside looking in currently. Flagler and Bethune are out of playoff contention. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: Stratton (5), Arickaree (11), Idalia (12), Otis (16), Hi-Plains (36), Lone Star (40)
Lock for Regionals: Stratton, Arickaree, Idalia, Otis
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Hi-Plains & Lone Star
Out of Regional Contention: Flagler (43) & Bethune (54)
District 6 Champion Prediction: Sierra Grande
Sierra Grande is the favorite currently to win the district 6 crown. I think Sierra Grande will be challenged by Moffat, Sangre De Cristo, and Centennial for the District Crown. Sierra Grande is currently the only team who is a lock for regionals. Sangre De Cristo and Moffat are both near locks for regionals but sit in the 20s so must end the season strong. Centennial is on the bubble at #27. Creede and Antonito are out of regional contention. (This district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index)
Regional Contenders: Sierra Grande (8), Sangre De Cristo (21), Moffat (22), Centennial (27)
Lock for Regionals: Sierra Grande (8)
Near Locks: Sangre De Cristo & Moffat
Bubble: Centennial
Out of Regional Contention: Creede (52) & Antonito (53)
District 7 Champion Prediction: Pikes Peak Christian
Currently district 7 would not host a regional. Pikes Peak Christian is close at #17 but need a key win to help jump into the top 16. Genoa-Hugo appears to be the main challenger for the district crown with Miami-Yoder as another challenger. Pikes Peak Christian and Genoa-Hugo are near locks for regionals, but both will need to end the season strong. Miami-Yoder is on the bubble at #30. The rest of the district is out of regional contention. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: Pikes Peak Christian (17), Genoa-Hugo (23), Miami-Yoder (30)
Lock for Regionals: None
Near Locks: Pikes Peak Christian & Genoa-Hugo
Bubble: Miami-Yoder
Out of Regional Contention: Cripple Creek (45), Hanover (46), Deer Trail (49), Kiowa (50), Colorado D&B (55)
District 8 Champion Prediction: Belleview Christian
The final district to talk about is the 5280. Currently they are one of the tougher districts with 5 of their 8 teams sitting inside the top 20 of the Seeding Index. Belleview Christian is my pick to win the District but look for Denver Jewish Day, Front Range Baptist, and Flatirons Academy to all push for the crown. Belleview Christian, Denver Jewish Day, Front Range Baptist, and Flatirons Academy all are locks for regionals. Denver Waldorf is a near lock at #14 but I am worried if they pick up more losses what happens with their RPI. Denver Academy of Torah is on the bubble at #33. Mile High Academy and Rocky Mountain Lutheran are out of regional contention. (My guess is this district will be seeded by the league standings of the 5280 League. If I am wrong send me a message.)
Regional Contenders: Belleview Christian (3), Denver Jewish Day (4), Front Range Baptist (7), Flatirons Academy (10), Denver Waldorf (14), Denver Academy of Torah (33)
Lock for Regionals: Belleview Christian, Denver Jewish Day, Front Range Baptist, Flatirons Academy
Near Locks: Denver Waldorf
Bubble: Denver Academy of Torah
Out of Regional Contention: Mile High Academy (41) & Rocky Mountain Lutheran (47)
District Champions and Regional Hosts: ()=Seeding Index
District 1: De Beque (9)
District 2: Cheyenne Wells (1)
District 3: Springfield (15)
District 4: Peetz (6)
District 5: Stratton (5)
District 6: Sierra Grande (8)
District 7: Pikes Peak Christian (17) (Would not host)
District 8: Belleview Christian (3)
At-Large Host: McClave (2)
First Four Out
Denver Academy of Torah (33), Wiley (34), Caprock Academy (35), Hi-Plains (36)
Bracket- District matchups will be avoided in the first round. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!
| Region 1 |
| *#1 Cheyenne Wells vs #32 Ouray |
| #16 Otis vs #17 Pikes Peak Christian |
| Region 2 |
| *#8 Springfield vs #25 Cheraw |
| #9 Denver Jewish Day vs #24 Primero |
| Region 3 |
| *#5 Peetz vs #28 Kim/Branson |
| #12 Arickaree vs #21 Sangre De Cristo |
| Region 4 |
| *#4 Stratton vs #29 Briggsdale |
| #13 Idalia vs #20 South Baca |
| Region 5 |
| *#2 McClave vs #31 Dove Creek |
| #15 Denver Waldorf vs #18 Nucla |
| Region 6 |
| *#7 De Beque vs #26 Centennial |
| #10 Front Range Baptist vs #23 Genoa-Hugo |
| Region 7 |
| *#6 Sierra Grande vs #27 Granada |
| #11 Flatirons Academy vs #22 Moffat |
| Region 8 |
| *#3 Belleview Christian vs #30 Miami-Yoder |
| #14 Eads vs #19 Prairie |
*= Regional Host
Note: You can move teams for geography considerations & to avoid league/district matchups in the first round! I made a few changes to help with travel and avoid league/district matchups. Remember 17-32 can be moved 2 spots at max.
My State Qualifier Picks
Here are the 8 teams I think qualify for State. They are not in order due to State having to be reseeded.
#1 Cheyenne Wells
#9 Denver Jewish Day
#5 Peetz
#4 Stratton
#2 McClave
#7 De Beque
#6 Sierra Grande
#3 Belleview Christian
MileHigh Prep Report 