Girls Basketball Class 1A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 10
For my projections I am using the CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index. I am going to be predicting the District Champions and may just give a quick reason as to why I picked each District Champion. If you are a District Champion ranked in the top 16 of the Seeding Index, you will automatically host a regional. Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your District. I will be giving a quick run through of teams still in the hunt. At the end I pick the 8 teams I think make it to state based on my projections.
Updated 2/8 9am (When I pulled the Seeding Index)
Class 1A
- District must unanimously agree prior to the season on their own seeding criteria. If an agreement cannot be met, district Seeding will be done by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index (50% Maxpreps & 50% RPI). Maxpreps and RPI will run through Districts.
- District Winners (8) advancing to the 32-team state bracket. District Champions are guaranteed a top 8 (host slot) as long as they are in the top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index after Districts.
- Remaining 24 teams are filled in by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Any team moved up to the 1-8 slots if a District winner is not in the top 16, will be true seeded 1-8.
- Seeding criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Seed 9-16 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the FIRST ROUND ONLY. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Teams 17-32 may be moved two spots based upon geography and league/district matchups.
- First two rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in the quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total)
- Teams will be reseeded prior to the final week-state championship (Final 8). The CHSAA Index published after Districts will be the only factor for State Seeding.
- Top 8 teams will advance. Class 1A Great 8 will play a Consolation Bracket.
District Tournaments
I will be going district by district and talking about the current playoff situation. This can quickly change with an upset or a team making a run in the District Tournament. Also if you win your District you automatically qualify if you are out of regional contention below.
District 1 Champion Prediction: Dove Creek
Dove Creek is my pick to win the District 1 Tournament. De Beque and Nucla will both push for the district crown. Dove Creek is a lock for regionals at #6. De Beque and Nucla are both near locks at #21 & #23. Caprock Academy and North Park are on the bubble but would be on the outside looking in. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: Dove Creek (6), De Beque (21), Nucla (23), Caprock Academy (35), North Park (39)
Lock for Regionals: Dove Creek
Near Locks: De Beque & Nucla
Bubble: Caprock Academy & North Park
Out of Regional Contention: None
District 2 Champion Prediction: McClave
Going to call District 2 one of the toughest District in 1A. 5 of the 7 teams sit inside the top 20 of the Seeding Index. McClave is my pick to win the District, but they have plenty of challengers in Kit Carson, Eads, and Cheyenne Wells. McClave, Kit Carson, Eads, and Cheyenne Wells are all locks for regionals. Cheraw is a near lock at #20. Granada is on the edge of the bubble at #24. Wiley is on the bubble but would be on the outside looking in. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: McClave (1), Kit Carson (8), Eads (9), Cheyenne Wells (15), Cheraw (20), Granada (24), Wiley (37)
Lock for Regionals: McClave, Kit Carson, Eads, Cheyenne Wells
Near Locks: Cheraw
Bubble: Granada, Wiley
Out of Regional Contention: None
District 3 Champion Prediction: South Baca
South Baca is my pick to win the District 3 Tournament. They have jumped enough up the Seeding Index to host. They will be challenged by Springfield and Kim/Branson for the crown. South Baca is currently the only team who is a lock but I do have some worries if they drop a game how much they fall. Springfield is a near lock for regionals with Kim/Branson and La Veta sitting on the bubble. Primero, Walsh, and Manzanola are eliminated from Regional Contention. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: South Baca (11), Springfield (18), Kim/Branson (26), La Veta (30)
Lock for Regionals: South Baca
Near Locks: Springfield
Bubble: Primero, Kim/Branson, La Veta
Out of Regional Contention: Primero (41), Walsh (46), Manzanola (50)
District 4 Champion Prediction: Briggsdale
Briggsdale is my pick to win the District 4 Tournament. Fleming and Prairie will have a say in it and should be a competitive district. Briggsdale, Fleming, and Prairie are locks for regionals. Weldon Valley is on the bubble at #33 and would be the first team out. Peetz is eliminated from regional contention. (My guess is this district will be seeded by the league standings of the North Central League. If I am wrong send me a message)
Regional Contenders: Briggsdale (4), Fleming (7), Prairie (13), Weldon Valley (33)
Lock for Regionals: Briggsdale, Fleming, Prairie
Near Locks: Prairie
Bubble: Weldon Valley
Out of Regional Contention: Peetz (43)
District 5 Champion Prediction: Stratton
District 5 is another tough district. Stratton is my pick to win the district but Idalia should push for the crown. Also don’t count out Arickaree, Hi-Plains, and Otis. Stratton & Idalia are locks for regionals. Arickaree, Hi-Plains, and Otis are all near locks. Flagler, Lone Star, and Bethune are on the bubble. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: Stratton (3), Idalia (5), Arickaree (17), Hi-Plains (19), Otis (22), Flagler (25), Lone Star (28), Bethune (38)
Lock for Regionals: Stratton & Idalia
Near Locks: Arickaree, Hi-Plains, Otis
Bubble: Flagler, Lone Star, Bethune
Out of Regional Contention: None
District 6 Champion Prediction: Sangre De Cristo
Sangre De Cristo is my pick to win the district crown. They are the only team in the top 32 currently and are sitting at #14. Sangre will probably need to win out to keep a regional host. Creede and Sierra Grande are the main challengers for the district crown. Sangre De Cristo is not a lock for regionals yet but are close. Creede and Sierra Grande are on the bubble but would be on the outside looking in. The rest of the district is eliminated from regional contention. (This district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index)
Regional Contenders: Sangre De Cristo (14), Creede (34), Sierra Grande (40)
Lock for Regionals: None
Near Locks: Sangre De Cristo
Bubble: Creede & Sierra Grande
Out of Regional Contention: Centennial (42), Moffat (49), Lake City (51), Antonito (52)
District 7 Champion Prediction: Kiowa
Kiowa is my pick to win the District 7 championship. They are the lone team inside the top 24 currently. Genoa-Hugo and Hanover will be the main challengers. Kiowa is the lone team who is a lock for regionals but will need to avoid an upset. Genoa-Hugo, Hanover, Pikes Peak Christian, and Deer Trail are all teams who are on the bubble. Miami-Yoder and Cripple Creek are eliminated from regional contention. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: Kiowa (12), Genoa-Hugo (27), Hanover (29), Pikes Peak Christian (31), Deer Trail (32)
Lock for Regionals: Kiowa
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Genoa-Hugo, Hanover, Pikes Peak Christian, Deer Trail
Out of Regional Contention: Miami-Yoder (45), Cripple Creek (47)
District 8 Champion Prediction: Flatirons Academy
The final district to talk about is the 5280. Flatirons Academy is my pick to win the District 8 tournament. We will see if Rocky Mountain Lutheran or Mile High Academy challenge them for the District crown. Flatirons Academy and Rocky Mountain Lutheran are locks for regionals. Miles High Academy is a near lock at #16. Front Range Baptist is on the bubble but are on the outside looking in. (My guess is this district will be seeded by the league standings of the 5280 League. If I am wrong send me a message.)
Regional Contenders: Flatirons Academy (2), Rocky Mountain Lutheran (10), Mile High Academy (16), Front Range Baptist (36)
Lock for Regionals: Flatirons Academy & Rocky Mountain Lutheran
Near Locks: Mile High Academy
Bubble: Front Range Baptist
Out of Regional Contention: Denver Waldorf (44) & Belleview Christian (48)
District Champions and Regional Hosts: ()=Seeding Index
District 1: Dove Creek (6)
District 2: McClave (1)
District 3: South Baca (11)
District 4: Briggsdale (4)
District 5: Stratton (3)
District 6: Sangre De Cristo (14)
District 7: Kiowa (12)
District 8: Flatirons Academy (2)
First Four Out
Weldon Valley (33), Creede (34), Caprock Academy (35), Front Range Baptist (36)
Bracket- District matchups will be avoided in the first round. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!
| Region 1 |
| *#1 McClave vs #32 Deer Trail |
| #16 Mile High Academy vs #17 Arickaree |
| Region 2 |
| *#8 Sangre De Cristo vs #25 Flagler |
| #9 Idalia vs #24 Granada |
| Region 3 |
| *#5 Dove Creek vs #28 La Veta |
| #12 Eads vs #21 De Beque |
| Region 4 |
| *#4 Briggsdale vs #29 Lone Star |
| #13 Rocky Mountain Lutheran vs #20 Cheraw |
| Region 5 |
| *#2 Flatirons Academy vs #31 Pikes Peak Christian |
| #15 Cheyenne Wells vs #18 Springfield |
| Region 6 |
| *#7 Kiowa vs #26 Kim/Branson |
| #10 Fleming vs #23 Nucla |
| Region 7 |
| *#6 South Baca vs #27 Genoa-Hugo |
| #11 Kit Carson vs #22 Otis |
| Region 8 |
| *#3 Stratton vs #30 Hanover |
| #14 Prairie vs #19 Hi-Plains |
*= Regional Host
Note: 17-32 can be moved max of two spots for geography or District/league matchups. I tried to avoid the league matchups but did minimal movement for Geography.
My State Qualifier Picks
Here are the 8 teams I think will make it to the Elite 8. I am not posting matchups due to state being reseeded.
#1 McClave
#9 Idalia
#5 Dove Creek
#4 Briggsdale
#2 Flatirons Academy
#10 Fleming
#11 Kit Carson
#3 Stratton
MileHigh Prep Report 