Girls Basketball Class 2A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 10

Girls Basketball Class 2A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 10

For my projections I am using the CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index. I am going to be predicting the District Champions and may just give a quick reason as to why I picked each District Champion. If you are a District Champion ranked in the top 16 of the Seeding Index you will automatically host a regional. Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your District. I will be giving a quick run through of teams still in the hunt. At the end I pick the 8 teams I think make it to state based on my projections.

Updated 2/9 9am (When I pulled the Seeding Index)

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Class 2A

District must unanimously agree prior to the season on their own seeding criteria. If an agreement cannot be met, district Seeding will be done by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index (50% Maxpreps & 50% RPI). Maxpreps and RPI will run through Districts.
District Winners (8) advancing to the 32-team state bracket. District Champions are guaranteed a top 8 (host slot) as long as they are in the top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index after Districts.
Remaining 24 teams are filled in by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Any team moved up to the 1-8 slots if a District winner is not in the top 16, will be true seeded 1-8.
Seeding criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Seed 9-16 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the FIRST ROUND ONLY. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Teams 17-32 may be moved two spots based upon geography and league/district matchups.
First two rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in the quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total)
Teams will be reseeded prior to the final week-state championship (Final 8). The CHSAA Index published after Districts will be the only factor for State Seeding.
Top 8 teams will advance. Class 1A Great 8 will play a Consolation Bracket.

District Tournament Winners

District 1 Champion Prediction: Monte Vista

Monte Vista looks to be the favorite to win the District 1 crown but beating Sanford twice in a season is no easy feat. Plus, Sargent, Del Norte, and Center are all pushing to grab the District Crown. Monte Vista, Sanford, and Sargent are all locks for regionals. Center and Del Norte are just off the bubble currently but could easily move back on. Cotopaxi, Trinidad and Custer County are on the bubble. (This district will be seeded by the Southern Peaks League Standings & head-to-head matchups.)

Regional Contenders: Monte Vista (5), Sanford (10), Sargent (14), Center (23), Del Norte (24), Cotopaxi (29), Trinidad (32), Custer County (38)

Lock for Regionals: Monte Vista, Sanford, and Sargent

Near Locks: Center & Del Norte

Bubble: Cotopaxi, Trinidad, Custer County

Out of Regional Contention: South Park (42)

District 2 Champion Prediction: Merino

Once again District 2 will be tightly contested with 4 teams currently in the top 16 of the seeding index. Merino is the favorite, but I expect them to be challenged by Sedgwick County, Akron, Wray, Wiggins, and Caliche. Merino, Sedgwick County, Akron, & Wiggins are all locks for regionals. Wray and Caliche are near locks for regionals but on the right patch. Holyoke is the only team on the bubble at #37. They will need a big run down the end to get into the regionals. (I believe this district will be seeded by the LPAA League Standings)

Regional Contenders: Merino (1), Sedgwick County (2), Akron (6), Wiggins (15), Wray (20), Caliche (21), Holyoke (36)

Lock for Regionals: Merino, Sedgwick County, Akron, Wiggins

Near Locks: Wray & Caliche

Bubble: Holyoke

Out of Regional Contention: Haxtun (45)

District 3 Champion Prediction: Mancos

The winner of District 3 may be the only team to get into Regionals. This is a weak District currently with just 1 team inside the top 32. Mancos, I believe walks thru District they could be in risk of not hosting as they sit at #18. Ridgway is on the edge of the bubble at #40. (I believe this district will be seeded by the San Juan League Standings)

Regional Contenders: Mancos (18), Ridgway (39)

Lock for Regionals: Mancos

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Ridgway

Out of Regional Contention: Dolores (51) & Telluride (54)

District 4 Champion Prediction: Dayspring Christian

Dayspring Christian is my pick to win this district. Heritage Christian appears to be the main challenger for the district crown. Dayspring Christian and Heritage Christian are locked for regionals. Loveland Classical and Twin Peaks Charter are on the bubble. (I believe this District will be seeded by the Seeding Index, if I am wrong send me a message.)

Regional Contenders: Dayspring Christian (7), Heritage Christian (16), Loveland Classical (25), Twin Peaks Charter (31)

(I am not including Campion Academy, they did the same thing last season and did not compete at regionals.)

Lock for Regionals: Dayspring Christian & Heritage Christian

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Loveland Classical & Twin Peaks Charter

Out of Regional Contention: Union Colony Prep (47) & Poudre Community (55)

District 5 Champion Prediction: Rangely

Rangely is currently the only team inside the top 16 of the Seeding Index. Plateau Valley and West Grand should challenge Rangely for the District Crown. Rangely is the lone team that is a lock for regionals. Rangely sits at #3. Plateau Valley is a near lock at #22 and in solid position to make it to regionals. West Grand is on the bubble at #27. (I believe this district will be seeded by the Western Slope standings, if I am wrong message me)

Regional Contenders: Rangely (3), Plateau Valley (22), West Grand (27)

Lock for Regionals: Rangely

Near Locks: Plateau Valley

Bubble: West Grand

Out of Regional Contention: Soroco (43), Hayden (44), Vail Christian (52)

District 6 Champion Prediction: Hoehne

Hoehne is my pick to win the District. Las Animas and Fowler look to be the main challengers. Hoehne is the lone team that is a lock for regionals. Fowler and Las Animas are both inside the top 20 and are near locks and are teams after this weekend that could be locks for regionals. Crowley County, Swink, and Holly are all on the bubble. Swink and Holly are on the wrong side of the bubble. (I believe this district will be seeded by the Santa Fe league standings, if I am wrong message me)

Regional Contenders: Hoehne (4), Fowler (17), Las Animas (19), Crowley County (26), Swink (33), Holly (35)

Lock for Regionals: Hoehne

Near Locks: Fowler & Las Animas

Bubble: Crowley County, Swink, & Holly

Out of Regional Contention: Swallows Charter (46) & Walsenburg (53)

District 7 Champion Prediction: Denver Christian

Denver Christian is my pick to win the district. Gilpin County appears to be the main challenger for the District crown. Denver Christian is a lock for regionals and sit at #12. Gilpin County and Addenbrooke Classical are bubble teams currently. Gilpin County is at #28 and would be in. Addenbrooke Classical sits at #34 and would be just outside of regionals. (I believe this District will be seeded by the Seeding Index, if I am wrong send me a message.)

Regional Contenders: Denver Christian (12), Gilpin County (28), Addenbrooke Classical (34)

Lock for Regionals: Denver Christian

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Gilpin County & Addenbrooke Classical

Out of Regional Contention: Golden View Classical (48)

District 8 Champion Prediction: Burlington

I had a hard time picking the winner of this District. I truly believe Simla, ECA, Limon, and Burlington can all win this District. I am going with Burlington to win this District. Burlington, Simla, Limon, and ECA are all locks for regionals. Byers, Calhan, and Elbert are all bubble teams. Byers would be in regionals currently, but Calhan and Elbert would be on the outside looking in. (This district will be seeded by head-to-head contests and ties will be broken by seeding index.)

Regional Contenders: Burlington (8), Simla (9), Limon (13), Evangelical Christian (11), Byers (30), Calhan (37), Elbert (40)

Lock for Regionals: Burlington, Simla, Limon, Evangelical Christian

Near Locks: None

Bubble: Byers, Calhan, Elbert

Out of Regional Contention: CS School (48) & Dolores Huerta (49)

District Champions and Regional Hosts: ()=Seeding Index

District 1: Monte Vista (5)

District 2: Merino (1)

District 3: Mancos (18) (Will not host)

District 4: Dayspring Christian (7)

District 5: Rangely (3)

District 6: Hoehne (4)

District 7: Denver Christian (12)

District 8: Burlington (8)

At Large Host: Sedgwick County (2)

First Four Out

Swink (33), Addenbrooke Classical (34), Holly (35), Holyoke (36)

I have excluded Campion Academy from my projections. They have played 6 games and have no other games scheduled.

Bracket- District matchups will be avoided in the first round. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!

Region 1

*#1 Merino vs #32 Trinidad

#16 Heritage Christian vs #17 Fowler

Region 2

*#8 Denver Christian vs #25 Loveland Classical

#9 Akron vs #24 Del Norte

Region 3

*#5 Monte Vista vs #28 Gilpin County

#12 Evangelical Christian vs #21 Caliche

Region 4

*#4 Hoehne vs #29 Cotopaxi

#13 Limon vs #20 Wray