Boys Basketball Class 1A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 11
For my projections I am using the CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index. I am going to be predicting the District Champions and may just give a quick reason as to why I picked each District Champion. If you are a District Champion ranked in the top 16 of the Seeding Index you will automatically host a regional. Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your District. I will be giving a quick run through of teams till in the hunt. At the end I pick the 8 teams I think make it to State based off current projections.
Updated 2/15 9am (When I pulled the Seeding Index)
Class 1A
- District must unanimously agree prior to the season on their own seeding criteria. If an agreement cannot be met, district Seeding will be done by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index (50% Maxpreps & 50% RPI). Maxpreps and RPI will run through Districts.
- District Winners (8) advancing to the 32-team state bracket. District Champions are guaranteed a top 8 (host slot) as long as they are in the top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index after Districts.
- Remaining 24 teams are filled in by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Any team moved up to the 1-8 slots if a District winner is not in the top 16, will be true seeded 1-8.
- Seeding criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Seed 9-16 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the FIRST ROUND ONLY. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Teams 17-32 may be moved two spots based upon geography and league/district matchups.
- First two rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in the quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total)
- Teams will be reseeded prior to the final week-state championship (Final 8). The CHSAA Index published after Districts will be the only factor for State Seeding.
- Top 8 teams will advance. Class 1A Great 8 will play a Consolation Bracket.
District Tournaments
I will be going district by district and talking about the current playoff situation. This can quickly change with an upset or a team making a run in the District Tournament. Also if you win your District you automatically qualify if you are out of regional contention below.
District 1 Champion Prediction: De Beque
De Beque still appears to be the favorite in District 1. I think Nucla, Dove Creek, and Ouray could all challenge De Beque for the district crown. All 6 teams in District 1 are still in the hunt for regionals. De Beque & Nucla are locks for regionals. Dove Creek is on the bubble but would get into the field if things started today. Ouray, North Park and Caprock Academy are also still on the bubble but on the wrong side currently. (This district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index)
Regional Contenders: De Beque (6), Nucla (16), Dove Creek (29), Ouray (35), North Park (37), Caprock Academy (39)
Lock for Regionals: De Beque & Nucla
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Dove Creek, Ouray, Caprock Academy, North Park
Out of Regional Contention: None
District 2 Champion Prediction: Cheyenne Wells
Cheyenne Well is my pick to win the district but look for both McClave and Eads to challenge for the District Crown. Currently 6 of the 7 teams are in the hunt for regionals. Cheyenne Wells, McClave, and Eads are locks for the regional field. Cheraw is a near lock moving up to #23 but still close to the bubble and could easily move either direction this week and next. Wiley & Granada are both on the bubble but would get into the field. Wiley sits at #27 and Granada would be the last team in at #32. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: Cheyenne Wells (1), McClave (2), Eads (9), Cheraw (23), Wiley (27), Granada (32)
Lock for Regionals: Cheyenne Wells, McClave, Eads
Near Locks: Cheraw
Bubble: Granada, Wiley
Out of Regional Contention: Kit Carson (42)
District 3 Champion Prediction: Springfield
Springfield is the current favorite to win the district, but South Baca, Primero, and Kim/Branson should be challengers to the district crown. Crazy from one week to the next how things change. Springfield, I believe is a lock for the regional field sitting at #15. Primero and Kim/Branson were on the bubble last week and are near locks this week. Primero moved up to #21 and Kim/Branson #22 both were sitting above 26 last week. South Baca has moved onto the bubble dropping from #19 to #26 this week. Walsh also improved their hopes for regionals moving from #39 to #34 and now just two places out of the final spot. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: Springfield (15), Primero (21), Kim/Branson (22), South Baca (26), Walsh (34)
Lock for Regionals: Springfield
Near Locks: Primero & Kim/Branson
Bubble: South Baca & Walsh
Out of Regional Contention: La Veta (44), Manzanola (51)
District 4 Champion Prediction: Peetz
Peetz is still my pick to win the District Four tournament, but Briggsdale did show they can be beat. Briggsdale and Prairie will challenge for the district crown. Peetz is a lock for regionals at #11. District 4 saw all the teams that are in the hunt for regionals drop in the latest Seeding Index. Prairie moved from a near lock to on the bubble dropping from #20 to #25 this week. Briggsdale also moved back one spot but would still get into the field at #28. Fleming moved farther away from 32 dropping to #38 and would not get into the field currently. (My guess is this district will be seeded by the league standings of the North Central League. If I am wrong send me a message)
Regional Contenders: Peetz (11), Prairie (25), Briggsdale (28), Fleming (38)
Lock for Regionals: Peetz
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Prairie, Briggsdale, Fleming
Out of Regional Contention: Weldon Valley (48)
District 5 Champion Prediction: Stratton
District 5 is another tough district. 4 teams currently sit inside the top 16 of the seeding index. Stratton is the favorite but look for Arickaree, Idalia, and Otis to all challenge for the District crown. Stratton, Arickaree, Idalia, and Otis I believe are all locks for regionals. Hi-Plains, Flagler, and Lone Star are on the bubble but are on the outside looking in currently. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: Stratton (3), Idalia (7), Arickaree (8), Otis (13), Hi-Plains (36), Flagler (40), Lone Star (41)
Lock for Regionals: Stratton, Arickaree, Idalia, Otis
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Hi-Plains & Lone Star
Out of Regional Contention: Bethune (54)
District 6 Champion Prediction: Sierra Grande
Sierra Grande is my pick to win the District Tournament. They were upset recently by Sangre De Cristo and that could be a great rematch if it happens. I also think Moffat and Centennial could be in he mix. Sierra Grande and Sangre De Cristo are locks for regionals, both sit inside the top 20. Moffat is a near lock but also got closer to the bubble sitting at #24. Centennial is on the bubble and would be the second to last team in at #31. (This district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index)
Regional Contenders: Sierra Grande (14), Sangre De Cristo (18), Moffat (24), Centennial (31)
Lock for Regionals: Sierra Grande & Sangre De Cristo
Near Locks: Moffat
Bubble: Centennial
Out of Regional Contention: Creede (52) & Antonito (53)
District 7 Champion Prediction: Pikes Peak Christian
Currently district 7 would not host a regional. Pikes Peak Christian is close at #19 but need a key win to help jump into the top 16. Genoa-Hugo appears to be the main challenger for the district crown with Miami-Yoder as another challenger. Pikes Peak Christian and Genoa-Hugo are near locks for regionals, but both will need to end the season strong. Miami-Yoder is on the bubble at #30. The rest of the district is out of regional contention. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: Pikes Peak Christian (19), Genoa-Hugo (20), Miami-Yoder (30)
Lock for Regionals: None
Near Locks: Pikes Peak Christian & Genoa-Hugo
Bubble: Miami-Yoder
Out of Regional Contention: Cripple Creek (45), Hanover (46), Deer Trail (49), Kiowa (50), Colorado D&B (55)
District 8 Champion Prediction: Belleview Christian
The final district to talk about is the 5280. Currently they are one of the tougher districts with 5 of their 8 teams sitting inside the top 20 of the Seeding Index. Belleview Christian remains my pick to win the District despite being defeated by Denver Jewish Day. Look for Denver Jewish Day, Front Range Baptist, and Flatirons Academy to all push for the crown. Belleview Christian, Denver Jewish Day, Front Range Baptist, and Flatirons Academy all are locks for regionals. Denver Waldorf is a near lock at #17 but I am worried if they pick up more losses what happens with their RPI. Denver Academy of Torah is on the bubble at #33. Mile High Academy and Rocky Mountain Lutheran are out of regional contention. (My guess is this district will be seeded by the league standings of the 5280 League. If I am wrong send me a message.)
Regional Contenders: Belleview Christian (4), Denver Jewish Day (5), Flatirons Academy (10), Front Range Baptist (12), Denver Waldorf (17), Denver Academy of Torah (33)
Lock for Regionals: Belleview Christian, Denver Jewish Day, Front Range Baptist, Flatirons Academy
Near Locks: Denver Waldorf
Bubble: Denver Academy of Torah
Out of Regional Contention: Mile High Academy (41) & Rocky Mountain Lutheran (47)
District Champions and Regional Hosts: ()=Seeding Index
District 1: De Beque (6)
District 2: Cheyenne Wells (1)
District 3: Springfield (15)
District 4: Peetz (11)
District 5: Stratton (3)
District 6: Sierra Grande (14)
District 7: Pikes Peak Christian (19) (Would not host)
District 8: Belleview Christian (4)
At-Large Host: McClave (2)
First Four Out
Denver Academy of Torah (33), Walsh (34), Ouray (35), Hi-Plains (36)
Bracket- District matchups will be avoided in the first round. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!
| Region 1 |
| *#1 Cheyenne Wells vs #32 Miami-Yoder |
| #16 Nucla vs #17 Denver Waldorf |
| Region 2 |
| *#8 Springfield vs #25 Prairie |
| #9 Denver Jewish Day vs #24 Moffat |
| Region 3 |
| *#5 De Beque vs #28 Dove Creek |
| #12 Eads vs #21 Primero |
| Region 4 |
| *#4 Belleview Christian vs #29 Briggsdale |
| #13 Flatirons Academy vs #20 Genoa-Hugo |
| Region 5 |
| *#2 McClave vs #31 Centennial |
| #15 Otis vs #18 Sangre De Cristo |
| Region 6 |
| *#7 Sierra Grande vs #26 South Baca |
| #10 Arickaree vs #23 Cheraw |
| Region 7 |
| *#6 Peetz vs #27 Wiley |
| #11 Idalia vs #22 Kim/Branson |
| Region 8 |
| *#3 Stratton vs #30 Granada |
| #14 Front Range Baptist vs #19 Pikes Peak Christian |
*= Regional Host
Note: You can move teams for geography considerations & to avoid league/district matchups in the first round! I made a few changes to help with travel and avoid league/district matchups. Remember 17-32 can be moved 2 spots at max.
My State Qualifier Picks
Here are the 8 teams I think will make it to the Elite 8 based off the projections on 2/15.
#1 Cheyenne Wells
#9 Denver Jewish Day
#5 De Beque
#4 Belleview Christian
#2 McClave
#7 Sierra Grande
#11 Idalia
#3 Stratton
Here are the matchups based off the CHSAA Seeding Index on 2/15 @9am. This will change of course as the Seeding Index runs thru the District Tournament, but not regionals!
#1 Cheyenne Wells vs #8 Sierra Grande
#4 Belleview Christian vs #5 Denver Jewish Day
#2 McClave vs #7 Idalia
#3 Stratton vs #6 De Beque
MileHigh Prep Report 