Girls Basketball Class 1A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 11
For my projections I am using the CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index. I am going to be predicting the District Champions and may just give a quick reason as to why I picked each District Champion. If you are a District Champion ranked in the top 16 of the Seeding Index, you will automatically host a regional. Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your District. I will be giving a quick run through of teams still in the hunt. At the end I pick the 8 teams I think make it to state based on my projections.
Updated 2/15 7am (When I pulled the Seeding Index)
Class 1A
- District must unanimously agree prior to the season on their own seeding criteria. If an agreement cannot be met, district Seeding will be done by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index (50% Maxpreps & 50% RPI). Maxpreps and RPI will run through Districts.
- District Winners (8) advancing to the 32-team state bracket. District Champions are guaranteed a top 8 (host slot) as long as they are in the top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index after Districts.
- Remaining 24 teams are filled in by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Any team moved up to the 1-8 slots if a District winner is not in the top 16, will be true seeded 1-8.
- Seeding criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Seed 9-16 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the FIRST ROUND ONLY. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Teams 17-32 may be moved two spots based upon geography and league/district matchups.
- First two rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in the quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total)
- Teams will be reseeded prior to the final week-state championship (Final 8). The CHSAA Index published after Districts will be the only factor for State Seeding.
- Top 8 teams will advance. Class 1A Great 8 will play a Consolation Bracket.
District Tournaments
I will be going district by district and talking about the current playoff situation. This can quickly change with an upset or a team making a run in the District Tournament. Also if you win your District you automatically qualify if you are out of regional contention below.
District 1 Champion Prediction: Dove Creek
Dove Creek is my pick to win the District 1 Tournament. De Beque and Nucla will both push for the district crown. Dove Creek is a lock for regionals at #8. De Beque and Nucla are both near locks at #19 & #24. Currently Caprock Academy & North Park are on the bubble. Caprock Academy would be the first team out at #33. North Park would currently be on the outside looking in. (district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index)
Regional Contenders: Dove Creek (8), De Beque (19), Nucla (24), Caprock Academy (33), North Park (39)
Lock for Regionals: Dove Creek
Near Locks: De Beque & Nucla
Bubble: Caprock Academy & North Park
Out of Regional Contention: None
District 2 Champion Prediction: McClave
Going to call District 2 one of the toughest District in 1A. 6 of the 7 teams sit inside the top 22 of the Seeding Index. McClave is my pick to win the District, but they have plenty of challengers in Kit Carson, Eads, and Cheyenne Wells. McClave, Kit Carson, Eads, and Cheyenne Wells are all locks for regionals. Cheraw & Granada both are near locks for regionals at #21 & 20 respectively. Wiley is on the bubble but would be on the outside looking in sitting at #36. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: McClave (1), Eads (5), Kit Carson (7), Cheyenne Wells (13), Granada (20), Cheraw (21), Wiley (36)
Lock for Regionals: McClave, Kit Carson, Eads, Cheyenne Wells
Near Locks: Cheraw & Granada
Bubble: Wiley
Out of Regional Contention: None
District 3 Champion Prediction: South Baca
South Baca is my pick to win the District 3 Tournament. They have jumped enough up the Seeding Index to host. They will be challenged by Springfield and Kim/Branson for the crown. South Baca is a lock and this week are joined by Springfield is also is a lock for regionals after jumping into the top 16. Kim/Branson and La Veta are sitting on the bubble currently. Kim/Branson is a bit farther from the edge sitting at #27. La Veta would be the last team in at #32. (This district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index)
Regional Contenders: South Baca (12), Springfield (15), Kim/Branson (27), La Veta (32)
Lock for Regionals: South Baca & Springfield
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Primero, Kim/Branson, La Veta
Out of Regional Contention: Primero (41), Walsh (46), Manzanola (50)
District 4 Champion Prediction: Briggsdale
Briggsdale is my pick to win the District 4 Tournament. Fleming and Prairie will have a say in it and should be a competitive district. Briggsdale, Fleming, and Prairie are locks for regionals. Weldon Valley is on the bubble at #37 and they fell four spots from last week. Weldon Valley may need to win out in the regular season to push for a top 32 spot. (My guess is this district will be seeded by the league standings of the North Central League. If I am wrong send me a message)
Regional Contenders: Briggsdale (4), Fleming (9), Prairie (11), Weldon Valley (37)
Lock for Regionals: Briggsdale, Fleming, Prairie
Near Locks:
Bubble: Weldon Valley
Out of Regional Contention: Peetz (44)
District 5 Champion Prediction: Stratton
District 5 is another tough district. 4 teams currently sit inside the top 20 of the seeding index. Stratton is the favorite to win the District crown but Idalia, Arickaree, and Hi-Plains will look to challenge. Stratton, Idalia, Arickaree, and Hi-Plains are locks for the regional tournament. Otis is a near lock but are a bit to closer to the bubble at #23. Flagler is right on the edge of the bubble at #26 and Lone Star is on the bubble at #28. All but one team currently would get to regionals from this District. (My guess is this district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index, if you know please send me a message!)
Regional Contenders: Stratton (3), Idalia (6), Arickaree (16), Hi-Plains (17), Otis (23), Flagler (26), Lone Star (28)
Lock for Regionals: Stratton, Idalia, Arickaree, Hi-Plains
Near Locks: Otis
Bubble: Flagler & Lone Star
Out of Regional Contention: Bethune (40)
District 6 Champion Prediction: Sangre De Cristo
Sangre De Cristo is my pick to win the district crown. Sierra Grande proved that this District is not locked up and upset Sangre last week. Sangre De Cristo is still my pick but look for Creede and Sierra Grande to challenge them. Sangre De Cristo is a near lock at #18 and a run to the District Championship should lock them in. Creede and Sierra Grande are on the bubble. Creede and Sierra Grande would be in currently at #30 and 31. (This district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index)
Regional Contenders: Sangre De Cristo (18), Creede (30), Sierra Grande (31)
Lock for Regionals: None
Near Locks: Sangre De Cristo
Bubble: Creede & Sierra Grande
Out of Regional Contention: Centennial (45), Moffat (48), Lake City (50), Antonito (52)
District 7 Champion Prediction: Kiowa
Kiowa is my pick to win the District 7 championship. They are the lone team inside the top 24 currently. Genoa-Hugo and Hanover will be the main challengers. Kiowa is the lone team who is a lock for regionals but will need to avoid an upset. Genoa-Hugo is a near lock at #25 but just a bit to closer for comfort. Hanover is on the bubble but would be in at #29. Pikes Peak Christian and Deer Trail are also on the bubble but are on the wrong side with PPC at #34 & Deer Trail at #38. (This district is seeded by the CHSAA Seeding Index)
Regional Contenders: Kiowa (14), Genoa-Hugo (25), Hanover (29), Pikes Peak Christian (34), Deer Trail (38)
Lock for Regionals: Kiowa
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Genoa-Hugo, Hanover, Pikes Peak Christian, Deer Trail
Out of Regional Contention: Miami-Yoder (42), Cripple Creek (49)
District 8 Champion Prediction: Flatirons Academy
The final district to talk about is the 5280. Flatirons Academy is my pick to win the District 8 tournament. We will see if Rocky Mountain Lutheran or Mile High Academy challenge them for the District crown. Flatirons Academy and Rocky Mountain Lutheran are locks for regionals. Mile High Academy remains as a near lock dropping from #18 to #22 this week. They must end the season strong to avoid moving closer to the bubble. Front Range Baptist is on the bubble at #35 and would be on the outside looking in. (My guess is this district will be seeded by the league standings of the 5280 League. If I am wrong send me a message.)
Regional Contenders: Flatirons Academy (2), Rocky Mountain Lutheran (10), Mile High Academy (22), Front Range Baptist (35)
Lock for Regionals: Flatirons Academy & Rocky Mountain Lutheran
Near Locks: Mile High Academy
Bubble: Front Range Baptist
Out of Regional Contention: Denver Waldorf (44) & Belleview Christian (47)
District Champions and Regional Hosts: ()=Seeding Index
District 1: Dove Creek (8)
District 2: McClave (1)
District 3: South Baca (12)
District 4: Briggsdale (4)
District 5: Stratton (3)
District 6: Sangre De Cristo (18) (Would not host)
District 7: Kiowa (14)
District 8: Flatirons Academy (2)
At Large Host: Eads (5)
First Four Out
Caprock Academy (33), Pikes Peak Christian (34), Front Range Baptist (35), Wiley (36)
Bracket- District matchups will be avoided in the first round. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!
| Region 1 |
| *#1 McClave vs #32 La Veta |
| #16 Arickaree vs #17 Sangre De Cristo |
| Region 2 |
| *#8 Kiowa vs #25 Nucla |
| #9 Idalia vs #24 Genoa-Hugo |
| Region 3 |
| *#5 Eads vs #28 Lone Star |
| #12 Rocky Mountain Lutheran vs #21 Cheraw |
| Region 4 |
| *#4 Briggsdale vs #29 Hanover |
| #13 Prairie vs #20 Granada |
| Region 5 |
| *#2 Flatirons Academy vs #31 Sierra Grande |
| #15 Springfield vs #18 Hi-Plains |
| Region 6 |
| *#7 South Baca vs #26 Flagler |
| #10 Kit Carson vs #23 Otis |
| Region 7 |
| *#6 Dove Creek vs #27 Kim/Branson |
| #11 Fleming vs #22 Miles High Academy |
| Region 8 |
| *#3 Stratton vs #30 Creede |
| #14 Cheyenne Wells vs #19 De Beque |
*= Regional Host
Note: 17-32 can be moved max of two spots for geography or District/league matchups. I tried to avoid the league matchups but did minimal movement for Geography.
My State Qualifier Picks
Here are the 8 teams I think will make it to the Elite 8 based off the projections on 2/15.
#1 McClave
#9 Idalia
#5 Eads
#4 Briggsdale
#2 Flatirons Academy
#10 Kit Carson
#6 Dove Creek
#3 Stratton
Here are the matchups based off the CHSAA Seeding Index on 2/15 @7am. This will change of course as the Seeding Index runs thru the District Tournament, but not regionals!
#1 McClave vs #8 Dove Creek
#4 Briggsdale vs #5 Eads
#2 Flatirons Academy vs #7 Kit Carson
#3 Stratton vs #6 Idalia
MileHigh Prep Report 