Boys Basketball Class 2A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 11
For my projections I am using the CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index. I am going to be predicting the District Champions and may just give a quick reason as to why I picked each District Champion. If you are a District Champion ranked in the top 16 of the Seeding Index you will automatically host a regional. Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your District. I will be giving a quick run through of teams still in the hunt. At the end I pick the 8 teams I think make it to state based on my projections.
Updated 2/15 10am (When I pulled the Seeding Index)
Class 2A
- District must unanimously agree prior to the season on their own seeding criteria. If an agreement cannot be met, district Seeding will be done by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index (50% Maxpreps & 50% RPI). Maxpreps and RPI will run through Districts.
- District Winners (8) advancing to the 32-team state bracket. District Champions are guaranteed a top 8 (host slot) as long as they are in the top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index after Districts.
- Remaining 24 teams are filled in by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Any team moved up to the 1-8 slots if a District winner is not in the top 16, will be true seeded 1-8.
- Seeding criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Seed 9-16 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the FIRST ROUND ONLY. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Teams 17-32 may be moved two spots based upon geography and league/district matchups.
- First two rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in the quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total)
- Teams will be reseeded prior to the final week-state championship (Final 8). The CHSAA Index published after Districts will be the only factor for State Seeding.
- Top 8 teams will advance. Class 2A Great 8 will play a Consolation Bracket.
District Tournament Winners
District 1 Champion Prediction: Sanford
Sanford is my pick to win District 1. They might be starting to play their best basketball and have been dominate down the stretch. Sanford is the only team I think is a lock for regionals as they sit at #5. Sargent is a near lock at #18 and Monte Vista sitting at #24 has some breathing room from the bubble. Cotopaxi and Del Norte are on the bubble. Cotopaxi would be in regionals with Del Norte on the outside looking in. (This District will be seeded by the Southern Peaks League Standings & head to head matchups)
Regional Contenders: Sanford (5), Sargent (18), Monte Vista (24), Cotopaxi (30), Del Norte (38)
Lock for Regionals: Sanford
Near Locks: Sargent & Monte Vista
Bubble: Cotopaxi & Del Norte
Out of Regional Contention: Custer County (45), Center (52), South Park (54), Trinidad (55)
District 2 Champion Prediction: Merino
Merino is my pick to win the District 2 Championship. I think they will be challenged by Wray and Holyoke. I also think Sedgwick County and Akron could also pose a threat as they have proven thru this season. Merino, Wray, and Holyoke are locks to make it to regionals. Akron is a near lock at #23 but have moved closer to the bubble. Wiggins and Sedgwick County are on the right side of the bubble but will need a strong stretch to close the season. Haxtun and Caliche both join the bubble discussion this week both moved into the top 40 but are going to a need some help to jump into the top 32. (I believe this District will be seeded by the Lower Platte League Standings, if I am wrong message me)
Regional Contenders: Merino (2), Wray (9), Holyoke (10), Akron (23), Wiggins (27), Sedgwick County (26), Haxtun (39), Caliche (40)
Lock for Regionals: Merino, Wray, Holyoke
Near Locks: Akron
Bubble: Wiggins & Sedgwick County
Out of Regional Contention: None
District 3 Champion Prediction: Mancos
Mancos remains my pick to win the District 3 championship. Their main threat is Telluride who already defeated them during the season. Mancos will look for revenge. Mancos and Telluride are also locks for regionals as both sit inside the top 16. The remaining two teams are eliminated from regional contention. (I believe this district will be seeded by the San Juan League Standings, if I am wrong message me)
Regional Contenders: Mancos (12), Telluride (16)
Lock for Regionals: Mancos & Telluride
Near Locks: None
Bubble: None
Out of Regional Contention: Ridgway (49), Dolores (51)
District 4 Champion Prediction: Heritage Christian
Heritage Christian is my pick to win the District 4 Championship. I think Loveland Classical is the main threat to the District Crown. Heritage Christian is a lock for regionals sitting at #6. Loveland Classical is a near lock at #19. The rest of the District is not in regional contention territory. (I believe this District will be seeded by the Seeding Index, if I am wrong send me a message.)
Regional Contenders: Heritage Christian (6), Loveland Classical (19),
(I am not including Campion Academy)
Lock for Regionals: Heritage Christian
Near Locks: Loveland Classical
Bubble: None
Out of Regional Contention: Union Colony Prep (43), Poudre Community (43), Dayspring Christian (47), Twin Peaks Charter (48), Nederland (57)
District 5 Champion Prediction: Plateau Valley
Plateau Valley remains the team to beat in District 5. They have cruised thru league and will be challenged in the District Tournament by Vail Mountain and Vail Christian. Plateau Valley is the only team I can classify as a lock currently. Vail Mountain is a near lock at #20 and Vail Christian is in the same boat at #22. Hayden is the lone other team to mention as a bubble team. They currently sit at #36 and are four places out of making it to regionals. (I believe district 5 will be seeded by the Western Slope League Standings, if I am wrong send me a message)
Regional Contenders: Plateau Valley (4), Vail Mountain (20), Vail Christian (22), Hayden (36)
Lock for Regionals: Plateau Valley
Near Locks: Vail Mountain & Vail Christian
Bubble: Hayden
Out of Regional Contention: Rangely (44), Soroco (56), West Grand (59)
District 6 Champion Prediction: Crowley County
Crowley County is my pick to win the District 6 Tournament. They are done with their league schedule and will go in as the #1 seed. Holly, Fowler, and Walsenburg will all challenge for the District Crown. Crowley County, Holly, Fowler, and Walsenburg are locks for regionals. Las Animas, Hoehne, and Swink are bubble teams as we head into the final stretch of the season. (I believe this district will be seeded by the Santa Fe League Standings, if I am wrong message me)
Regional Contenders: Crowley County (3), Holly (11), Fowler (14), Walsenburg (15), Las Animas (28), Swink (31), Hoehne (33)
Lock for Regionals: Crowley County, Holly, Fowler, Walsenburg
Near Locks: None
Bubble: Las Animas, Hoehne, Swink
Out of Regional Contention: Swallows Charter (50)
District 7 Champion Prediction: Denver Christian
Denver Christian is the heavy favorite to win the District 7 Tournament. They are the lone team inside the top 23. Golden View Classical could challenge but will have to make some adjustments when they play. Denver Christian is the lone team locked into the playoffs. Golden View Classical is a near lock at #25. Addenbrooke Classical is on the bubble and would be the last team in at #32. (I believe this District will be seeded by the Seeding Index, if I am wrong send me a message.)
Regional Contenders: Denver Christian (8), Golden View Classical (25), Addenbrooke Classical (32),
Lock for Regionals: Denver Christian
Near Locks: Golden View Classical
Bubble: Addenbrooke Classical
Out of Regional Contention: Denver Academy (42), Front Range Christian (53), Gilpin County (58)
District 8 Champion Prediction: Simla
District 8 will be a battle for the District Crown. Simla is my current pick to win the District Crown but, Limon, Byers, and Burlington will all put up a challenge. Simla, Limon, and Byers are all locks for the regional tournament. Burlington & Elbert are near locks with Burlington at #17 and Elbert at #21. CS School, Evangelical Christian, and Dolores Huerta are all teams sitting on the bubble. (This District will be seeded by head-to-head matchups and use the seeding index to break ties.)
Regional Contenders: Simla (1), Limon (7), Byers (13), Burlington (17), Elbert (21), CS School (29), Evangelical Christian (34), Dolores Huerta (35)
Lock for Regionals: Simla, Limon, Byers
Near Locks: Burlington & Elbert
Bubble: CS School, ECA, Dolores Huerta
Out of Regional Contention: Calhan (46)
District Champions and Regional Hosts: ()=Seeding Index
District 1: Sanford (5)
District 2: Merino (2)
District 3: Mancos (12)
District 4: Heritage Christian (6)
District 5: Plateau Valley (4)
District 6: Crowley County (3)
District 7: Denver Christian (8)
District 8: Simla (1)
First Four Out
Hoehne (33), Evangelical Christian (34), Dolores Huerta (35), Hayden (36)
Bracket- District matchups will be avoided in the first round. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!
| Region 1 |
| *#1 Simla vs #32 Addenbrooke Classical |
| #16 Telluride vs #17 Burlington |
| Region 2 |
| *#8 Mancos vs #25 Golden View Classical |
| #9 Limon vs #24 Akron |
| Region 3 |
| *#5 Sanford vs #28 Las Animas |
| #12 Holly vs #21 Elbert |
| Region 4 |
| *#4 Plateau Valley vs #29 CS School |
| #13 Byers vs #20 Vail Mountain |
| Region 5 |
| *#2 Merino vs #31 Swink |
| #15 Walsenburg vs #18 Sargent |
| Region 6 |
| *#7 Denver Christian vs #26 Sedgwick County |
| #10 Wray vs #23 Monte Vista |
| Region 7 |
| *#6 Heritage Christian vs #27 Wiggins |
| #11 Holyoke vs #22 Vail Christian |
| Region 8 |
| *#3 Crowley County vs #30 Cotopaxi |
| #14 Fowler vs #19 Loveland Classical |
*= Regional Host
Note: Teams 17-32 can be moved up to two spots for Geography or League/District Matchups. I tried to avoid district/league matchups and only made minimal movement for geography.
My State Qualifier Picks
Here are the 8 teams I think will make it to the Elite 8 based off the projections on 2/15.
#1 Simla
#9 Limon
#5 Sanford
#4 Plateau Valley
#2 Merino
#10 Wray
#6 Heritage Christian
#3 Crowley County
Here are the matchups based off the CHSAA Seeding Index on 2/15 @10am. This will change of course as the Seeding Index runs thru the District Tournament, but not regionals!
#1 Simla vs #8 Wray
#4 Plateau Valley vs #5 Sanford
#2 Merino vs #7 Limon
#3 Crowley County vs #6 Heritage Christian
MileHigh Prep Report 