Boys Basketball Class 1A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 9

Boys Basketball Class 1A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 9

Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your League (If you have 5 or more teams). This week we breakdown the race to host plus the teams sitting on the bubble. We will do this for every class. At the end I pick the 8 teams I think make it to state based on my projections At the end I pick the 8 teams I think make it to state based on my projections.

Updated 2/11 3pm (When I pulled the Seeding Index)

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Class 1A

League Champions earn an automatic berth in the playoffs as long as they win their league outright. Each league must have a minimum of 5 teams in it for an automatic berth.
Seeding Criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after the regular season. Seeds 9-16 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the First Round Only. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Seeds 17-32 may be moved up to two spots based upon geography & League matchups.
First Two Rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in that quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total).
Top 8 teams will advance through the bracket. The bracket Will Not be reseeded before State. Class 1A Great 8 will play a full consolation bracket.

League Champion Predictions

3A/2A/1A San Juan League: Nucla

3A/2A/1A Mile High League: 2A Team (Heritage Christian)

2A/1A Western Slope League: 2A Team Wins (Vail Christian)

2A/1A West Central: Cotopaxi (Will not get an automatic berth)

2A/1A Union Pacific League: Stratton

1A YWKC League: Otis

1A Southern Peaks: Sierra Grande

1A North Central: Prairie

2A/1A Lower Platte: 2A Team Wins (Merino)

1A High Plains: McClave

1A Fisher Peaks: Primero (Will not get an automatic berth)

1A Black Forrest: Elbert

1A Ark Valley: Kim/Branson

5280 League: Denver Waldorf

Top 8 Seeds (Regional Hosts)

#1 McClave

#2 Nucla

#3 Cheyenne Wells

#4 Flatirons Academy

#5 Stratton

#6 Prairie

#7 Elbert

#8 Denver Waldorf

Class 1A Boys looks to be a good race for the top 8 seeds. #1 thru #6 are all .930 and above and that is the only class that is that close for the top 6 seeds. One loss could make the difference between a team being the #1 or being the #6 seed. #7 thru #10 are also close for the final two host spots. #7 Elbert is at .868 and Peetz at #10 is at .805. Those teams should battle for the final two hosting spots and will come down to some big matchups down the stretch.

First Four Out

Cotopaxi (33), Hanover (34), Primero (35), Flagler (36)

Teams sitting above #30 in the CHSAA Seeding Index look to be in pretty good shape to reaching regionals. #31 Rocky Mountain Lutheran is very close to joining that group of teams with a .527. #32 Centennial is sitting at .509 and are barely holding off the teams sitting #33, #34, and #35. Centennial is just .0008 ahead of Cotopaxi and their head to head win over Cotopaxi could make a huge difference. Centennial must win there next two against Creede and Lake City and if they can get by Primero they would probably nearly lock up that final spot. Cotopaxi probably will need some help to jump Centennial and there game against Custer County could be that matchup.

Bracket- League matchups will be avoided in the first round only. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will not be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!

Region 1

*#1 McClave vs #32 Centennial

#16 Evangelical Christian vs #17 Denver Jewish Day

Region 2

*#8 Denver Waldorf vs #25 Springfield

#9 Sangre De Cristo vs #24 Arickaree

Region 3

*#5 Stratton vs #28 Kit Carson

#12 Otis vs #21 Kim/Branson

Region 4

*#4 Flatirons Academy vs #29 Mile High Academy

#13 De Beque vs #20 Holly

Region 5

*#2 Nucla vs #31 Rocky Mountain Lutheran

#15 Granada vs #18 Pikes Peak Christian

Region 6

*#7 Elbert vs #26 Caliche

#10 Peetz vs #23 Denver Academy of Torah

Region 7

*#6 Prairie vs #27 Cheraw

#11 Wiley vs #22 Idalia

Region 8

*#3 Cheyenne Wells vs #30 Front Range Baptist

#14 Sierra Grande vs #19 Ouray

*= Regional Host

Note: You can move teams for geography considerations & to avoid league/district matchups in the first round! Remember 17-32 can be moved 2 spots at max.

My State Qualifier Picks

Here are the 8 teams I think will make it to the Elite 8 based off the projections on 2/11.