Girls Basketball Class 2A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 10
Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your League (If you have 5 or more teams). This week we breakdown the race to host plus the teams sitting on the bubble. We will do this for every class. At the end I pick the 8 teams I think make it to state based on my projections. Final Two Weeks of Regular Season Action!
Updated 2/17 11am (When I pulled the Seeding Index)
Class 2A
- League Champions earn an automatic berth in the playoffs as long as they win their league outright. Each league must have a minimum of 5 teams in it for an automatic berth.
- Seeding Criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after the regular season. Seeds 9-16 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the First Round Only. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Seeds 17-32 may be moved up to two spots based upon geography & League matchups.
- First Two Rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in that quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total).
- Top 8 teams will advance through the bracket. The bracket Will Not be reseeded before State. Class 2A Great 8 will play a full consolation bracket.
League Champion Predictions
4A/3A/2A Frontier League: 4A Team Wins (Bennett)
3A/2A/1A San Juan League: 1A Team Wins (Nucla)
3A/2A/1A Mile High League: Heritage Christian
2A Southern Peaks: Sanford
2A Santa Fe League: Hoehne
2A/1A Lower Platte: Merino
3A/2A Foothills League: Loveland Classical
2A/1A Western Slope League: Rangely
2A/1A West Central: Cotopaxi (Will not get an automatic berth)
2A/1A Union Pacific League: 1A Team Wins (Stratton)
2A Black Forest: Simla
Top 8 Seeds (Regional Hosts)
#1 Merino
#2 Simla
#3 Sanford
#4 Sargent
#5 Sedgwick County
#6 Plateau Valley
#7 Akron
#8 Heritage Christian
It looks like a 9-team race for the top 8 spots. Just 9 teams currently sit over .700 in the CHSAA Seeding Index. Heritage Christian sits at #8 (.728) and sit just ahead of Rangely (.706) who is at #9. This looks to be the main team pushing for a regional host. Heritage Christian will need to win out to keep the #8 spot, but they do have some weaker opponents that could hurt their RPI. Rangely on the other hand has a few big games that could help their seed. Rangely will face two teams with winning records. Holyoke also could get in the mix for a host spot but will need an upset of Merino or Simla in their final games plus a good showing in their end of year tournament.
First Four Out
Crested Butte (33), Custer County (34), Haxtun (35), Fowler (36)
I think any team sitting over .400 is still in the mix for one of the final Regional Spots. The bubble has opened a bit more now with #30 Campion Academy sitting at .4989. Dolores is at #43 and is .098 behind the #30 spot. This could be the most interesting race for a final spot. Most league/teams play a end of the year tournament and that could be crucial to teams making it into the playoffs. Since so many teams are still in the mix here is the simple solution to getting to regionals and that is win.
Bracket- League matchups will be avoided in the first round only. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will not be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!
| Region 1 |
| *#1 Merino vs #32 Mancos |
| #16 Byers vs #17 Loveland Classical |
| Region 2 |
| *#8 Heritage Christian vs #25 Soroco |
| #9 Rangely vs #24 Dove Creek |
| Region 3 |
| *#5 Sedgwick County vs #28 Vail Mountain |
| #12 Calhan vs #21 Hoehne |
| Region 4 |
| *#4 Sargent vs #29 Ridgway |
| #13 Del Norte vs #20 Las Animas |
| Region 5 |
| *#2 Simla vs #31 Golden View Classical |
| #15 Center vs #18 James Irwin |
| Region 6 |
| *#7 Akron vs #26 Ascent Classical |
| #10 Holyoke vs #23 Caprock Academy |
| Region 7 |
| *#6 Plateau Valley vs #27 Gilpin County |
| #11 Swink vs #22 Trinidad |
| Region 8 |
| *#3 Sanford vs #30 Campion Academy |
| #14 Burlington vs #19 Dayspring Christian |
*= Regional Host
Note: You can move teams for geography considerations & to avoid league/district matchups in the first round! Remember 17-32 can be moved 2 spots at max.
My State Qualifier Picks
Here are the 8 teams I think will make it to the Elite 8 based off the projections on 2/17.
#1 Merino
#9 Rangely
#4 Sargent
#5 Merino
#2 Simla
#7 Akron
#6 Plateau Valley
#3 Sanford
MileHigh Prep Report 