Girls Basketball Class 2A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 11

Girls Basketball Class 2A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 11

Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your League (If you have 5 or more teams). This week we breakdown the race to host plus the teams sitting on the bubble. We will do this for every class. At the end I pick the 8 teams I think make it to state based on my projections. Final Two Weeks of Regular Season Action!

Updated 2/24 12pm (When I pulled the Seeding Index)

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Class 2A

League Champions earn an automatic berth in the playoffs as long as they win their league outright. Each league must have a minimum of 5 teams in it for an automatic berth.
Seeding Criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after the regular season. Seeds 9-16 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the First Round Only. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Seeds 17-32 may be moved up to two spots based upon geography & League matchups.
First Two Rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in that quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total).
Top 8 teams will advance through the bracket. The bracket Will Not be reseeded before State. Class 2A Great 8 will play a full consolation bracket.

League Champion Predictions

4A/3A/2A Frontier League: 4A Team Wins (Bennett)

3A/2A/1A San Juan League: 1A Team Wins (Nucla)

3A/2A/1A Mile High League: Heritage Christian

2A Southern Peaks: Sanford

2A Santa Fe League: Hoehne

2A/1A Lower Platte: Merino

3A/2A Foothills League: Loveland Classical

2A/1A Western Slope League: Rangely

2A/1A West Central: Custer County (Will not get an automatic berth)

2A/1A Union Pacific League: 1A Team Wins (Stratton)

2A Black Forest: Simla

Top 8 Seeds (Regional Hosts)

#1 Merino

#2 Simla

#3 Sanford

#4 Sargent

#5 Sedgwick County

#6 Plateau Valley

#7 Akron

#8 Heritage Christian

It looks like a 9-team race for the top 8 spots. Just 9 teams currently sit over .700 in the CHSAA Seeding Index. Heritage Christian sits at #8 (.729) and sit just ahead of Rangely (.714) who is at #9. This looks to be the main team pushing for a regional host. Heritage Christian will probably need to lose one of their remaining 3 games to drop below Rangely. Heritage Christian remaining schedule is against Lyons, Dayspring Christian, and Flatirons Academy. Rangely has one game remaining against 1A Cotopaxi but I do not believe a win over Cotopaxi will be enough without Heritage Christian dropping a game to jump them.

First Four Out

Twin Peaks Classical (33), Custer County (34), Crested Butte (35), Kiowa (36)

I think any team sitting over .450 and below .500 is still in the mix for one of the final Regional Spots. #31 Ridgway sits at .495 and #32 Golden View Classical is at .477991. Those would be the final two teams in. Twin Peaks Classical sits at .476 with Custer County at .470. #37 Crowley County also still within range at .452 but would need a very good showing in the Santa Fe tournament. Look at the remaining schedule, plenty of big games remain. Golden View has just one game remaining and could be hoping to hold off the 4 teams behind them with 2 or more games.

Remaining Games Team on the Bubble

Ridgway	Golden View	Twin Peaks Classical	Custer County	Crested Butte	Kiowa	Crowley County
Telluride	Pinnacle		Sanford-SPL Tournament	Sargent- SPL Tournament	Monument Academy	Rye
Dove Creek			SPL Tournament	SPL Tournament	Hanover	Hoehne-Santa Fe
			SPL Tournament	SPL Tournament		Santa Fe Tournament

Bracket- League matchups will be avoided in the first round only. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will not be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!

Region 1

*#1 Merino vs #32 Golden View Classical

#16 Burlington vs #17 Center

Region 2

*#8 Heritage Christian vs #25 Soroco

#9 Rangely vs #24 Gilpin County

Region 3

*#5 Sedgwick County vs #28 Ascent Classical

#12 Swink vs #21 Trinidad

Region 4

*#4 Sargent vs #29 Mancos

#13 Holyoke vs #20 James Irwin

Region 5

*#2 Simla vs #31 Ridgway

#15 Byers vs #18 Hoehne

Region 6

*#7 Akron vs #26 Dove Creek

#10 Del Norte vs #23 Caprock Academy

Region 7

*#6 Plateau Valley vs #27 Campion Academy

#11 Calhan vs #22 Las Animas

Region 8

*#3 Sanford vs #30 Vail Mountain

#14 Loveland Classical vs #19 Dayspring Christian

*= Regional Host

Note: You can move teams for geography considerations & to avoid league/district matchups in the first round! Remember 17-32 can be moved 2 spots at max.

My State Qualifier Picks

Here are the 8 teams I think will make it to the Elite 8 based off the projections on 2/24.