Week 6 Class 1A League Breakdown

Week 6 Class 1A League Breakdown

With only 2 weeks left in the regular season some critical games are being played and possible league titles could be decided.  For the first time this year I will talk more in depth about the playoffs.  I will look more into the RPI and what a win or a loss could do to your playoffs chances.  I will use the current OWP and the OOWP.  The only thing will change in the RPI is their WP.  It’s too difficult to calculate OWP and OOWP and not take 10 hours on this article.  Of course numbers will change with wins and loses but it gives you a look at some of the bubble teams.

Foothills League

The Foothills league cannot crown the league champion till next week but there is a big game this week in league.  Bennett is tied with Platte Canyon atop the league standing and those two won’t play each other till next week.  This week Bennett faces Manual.  Manual is sitting at #21 in the RPI and about .030 behind the #16 spot.  They would need to upset Bennett this week and that will be a very tall task for Manual who lost to Platte Canyon 37-22.  Bennett should win and move to 4-0 in league and set up the league title match with Platte Canyon.  The big game on tap this week features #7 Platte Canyon at Clear Creek.  Clear Creek is 6-1 overall and 2-1 in league and #9 in the RPI.  They finish the season off against Front Range Christian.  This week Clear Creek has a good chance of picking up their signature victory of the season.  They will need to play their best run defense of the season and must get their defense off the field on third down.  Clear Creek offensively must be able to move the ball and score points.  Platte Canyon is going to try control the clock with their rushing attack and Clear Creek must score points when they have the ball.  Platte Canyon is 6-0 on the year 3-0 in league and if they beat Clear Creek will face Bennett for the league title.  If they lose to Clear Creek they can still win the league title but would need some help.  Platte Canyon has not faced a very difficult schedule.  They OWP is .342 and this will be the first time that their defense will be tested by a very dynamic offense.  Platte Canyon must be able to control the clock and not let Clear Creek score.  Platte Canyon is #6 in the RPI and looking for a league title.  This will be a very good game Platte Canyon is the favorite but I am going with Clear Creek to win this game.  Clear Creek offense will be too much for Platte Canyon and I have Clear Creek winning 28-14.

Playoff Discussion

#1 Bennett is a for sure lock into the playoffs.  If they win out they will have the #1 seed.  I cannot lock Platte Canyon in even though they are #6 because of their OWP.  Platte Canyon if they lose their final two games could see their RPI drop into the .540 range and would be squarely on the bubble.  Splitting these final two games will be huge for Platte Canyon.  Clear Creek is #9 in the RPI and like Platte Canyon have a lower OWP.  Clear Creek at worst would split their final two games and could have their RPI fall into the .580 range which will get them into the playoffs.  Clear Creek is a lock to make the playoffs baring an upset in the final week of the season.  Manual sits at #21 and with an .504 RPI they will need to win out which includes upsetting Bennett.  Manual if they split their final two games their RPI will remain nearly unchanged.  If Manual loses to Bennett they will be near elimination from the playoffs.  I see the Foothills getting 3 teams into the playoffs.

#1 Bennett at Manual                                                    #7 Platte Canyon at Clear Creek

Front Range Christian at Vail Christian

RPI: #1 Bennett, #6 Platte Canyon, #9 Clear Creek, #21 Manual, #32 Vail Christian, #34 Front Range Christian

North Central League

The North Central League will not be decided until next when Limon faces off against Burlington.  This week there is not a huge game but some important games to deciding playoff fate. #10 Burlington is #10 in the RPI as well and face Wiggins this week.  Burlington should get by Wiggins and move to 6-2 on the year.  #5 Limon travels to a much improved Yuma team.  Yuma is 3-4 on the year and 2-1 in league.  Yuma lost to Burlington two weeks ago by over 30 points and I expect the same from Limon this week as well.  Yuma will face Wray in the final game of the season and will need to split their final two games to make a run for the playoffs.  Limon is facing a much more difficult game than Burlington but it will be a good way for them to prepare for Burlington.  The final game in the North Central league features Wray at Holyoke.  Holyoke is #23 in the RPI and trailing Wray by over .025 in the RPI.  Holyoke is eliminated from making the playoff but could play the spoiler role against Wray.  If Holyoke upsets Wray they would eliminate Wray, chances at making the playoffs.  Wray is right on the edge of being eliminated and must win out for any chance at the playoffs.  One lose will eliminate Wray from the playoffs.  Wray who I thought could be looking to take the next step this year and make the playoffs is now fighting for their lives.  Wray I believe will beat Holyoke and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Playoff Discussion

#5 Limon is a complete lock for the playoffs even losing their final two games.  Burlington can lock up their spot with a win over Wiggins.  If Burlington lost their final two games things would get interesting but I believe they are a lock for the playoffs.  #23 Holyoke is eliminated from the playoffs.  If they won out and their numbers didn’t change they would be in the .520 range but playing two losing teams will not increase their OWP and that is why I am eliminating them from the playoffs.  #22 Wray is in a must win situation.  Wray if they win out will be in the .530 or .540 range which would put them right on the verge of making the playoffs.  Wray cannot lose a game though.  #19 Yuma at best splits their final two games which will be tough.  They have Wray to close out the year and of course Limon this week.  Yuma if they split will probably be in the .515 to .525 area which is on the edge of being a playoff team.  For the North Central League, I think that they will get 2 in for sure with Wray challenging for one of the final spots.

#5 Limon at Yuma                                                            #10 Burlington vs Wiggins

Wray at Holyoke

RPI: #5 Limon, #10 Burlington, #19 Yuma, #22 Wray, #23 Holyoke, #27 Wiggins

Northern League

The Northern League can have your league champion this week.  Strasburg keeps taking care of business and did so again beating Estes Park 49-0 and now have a huge match with Cornerstone Christian for the league title.  Cornerstone Christian is #11 in the RPI and is 5-2 on the season.  They close out the year against Estes Park.  They have a chance at the league title with a win by more than 17 points.  Cornerstone Christian is a surprise team this year and their offense has been very balanced.  They are throwing for 714 yards and rushing for 1198 yards.  Their offense is led by senior Brayden Kelch 856 yards rushing.  Cornerstone Christian will need their best defensive effort in this game.  They must be able to stop the run and if they can should have some success.  #3 Strasburg with a win locks up the league title and the home playoff game.  They are also looking at a top 4 seed in the playoffs and are #4 in the RPI.  Strasburg on defense has been dominate once again.  If you take out the 37 points they gave up to Bennett they are only giving up 6.3 ppg but with Bennett 37 points they are giving up 10.7 ppg.  Strasburg lost some very talented seniors but have had the slack picked up by senior RB Hunter Bergstorm 703 yards rushing and 14 TDs.  He is the main weapon for Strasburg and must have a good game this week.  Strasburg will be the favorites in the game and I have them beating Cornerstone Christian 35-14.  Other games this week feature Highland at Estes Park.  Highland should cruise to the victory and stay one game back of the winner.  The other league game is Lyons and Byers and both teams are trying to get some momentum heading into next year.

Playoff Discussion

#4 Strasburg is a lock for the playoffs and with two wins a top 4 seed as well.  Byers, Lyons, & Estes Park are all eliminated from the playoffs.  #12 Highland is a lock as well.  They have two very winnable games and even though their OWP will drop they are a lock barring an upset.  #11 Cornerstone Christian is not as much of a lock.  Their OWP is lower than Highland.  At worst Cornerstone Christian splits their final games and ends in the .560 to .575 range and make the playoffs.  If Cornerstone Christian loses both games they could miss the playoffs.  I do believe that the Northern League will get three teams into the playoffs.

#3 Strasburg vs Cornerstone Christian                     Highland at Estes Park

Lyons at Byers

RPI: #4 Strasburg, #11 Cornerstone Christian, #12 Highland, #33 Byers, #36 Lyons, #37 Estes Park

Southern Peaks League

The Southern Peaks can officially be decided this week when #4 Centauri hosts Dolores.  I do believe Centauri is the huge favorite and this is their final game of the season with John Mall forfeiting the remainder of their games.  Centauri is looking for a top 3 seed and their RPI will drop because of John Mall being the final game.  Centauri is very good and should make quick work of Dolores 45-7.  Ignacio will also get a win and move to 3-5 because of John Mall forfeiting the remainder of their games.  The biggest game in the Southern Peaks is a Non-League game between Monte Vista and Rocky Ford.  Rocky Ford is #20 in the RPI and will probably need to win out to make the playoffs.  Rocky Ford has played a weaker schedule with the only two winning teams they have played being Limon and Crowley County.  Rocky Ford is a pass first team with 1192 yards passing and 748 rushing.  Rocky Ford offense is led by sophomore Isiah Garcia 738 yards 8 TDs and 12 INTs.  Rocky Ford will need their QB to be efficient in their passing attack and not throw INTs.  Rocky Ford defensively must stop the run to be successful this week and this is a big game for both teams.  Monte Vista is coming off a bye (forfeit win over John Mall) and are sitting #14 in the RPI.  Monte Vista will probably need both wins to lock up their playoff spot.  Monte Vista struggled two weeks ago against Centauri on offense throwing a pick six and not getting their offense going.  Monte Vista hopefully worked the problems out on offense and get going in the right direction.  Monte Vista offensively is led by Jacob Chavez 845 yards rushing and 10 TDs.  Monte Vista must get their rushing attack going to have any success.  Defensively Monte Vista must be able to stop the pass and not allow Rocky Ford in the open space.  Monte Vista is the favorite in the game and I am going with Monte Vista to win 31-14.

Playoff Discussion

#4 Centauri is a lock for the playoffs.  Dolores, Ignacio, and John Mall are all eliminated from the playoffs.  #14 Monte Vista is the only other team with a shot at the playoffs.  If Monte Vista wins out they can still break into the Top 12 if they win out.  If they split their final two games they will end with a very similar RPI they have now around the .535 area and be on the bubble.  Monte Vista must win one of two games and if they win both could be looking at a better seed.  Both Monte Vista and Centauri make the playoffs.

#4 Centauri at Dolores                                                   Monte Vista at Rocky Ford

John Mall at Ignacio

RPI: #2 Centauri, #14 Monte Vista, #28 Dolores, #29 Ignacio, #39 John Mall

Santa Fe League

The Santa Fe League is all wrapped up and your league champion is Crowley County.  They lock up the playoff spot and the home game.   Crowley County plays Dolores Huerta this week and Trinidad to close out the year.  They will be looking to hold a spot in the Top 10 of the RPI.  Crowley County should win out.  Rocky Ford hosts Monte Vista this week in a non-league game.  They play Ellicott in the final game of the season.  Rocky Ford RPI #’s does not look good.  Their OWP is only .305 and will only slightly improve with the Monte Vista game.  Rocky Ford will need to win out to get into the playoffs.  If they win both games they will have an RPI around the .530 range and that is right on the bubble.  If Rocky Ford loses to Monte Vista this week they will be very hard pressed to make the playoffs.  Ellicott, Trinidad, and Dolores Huerta are all eliminated from the playoffs.

#9 Crowley County at Dolores Huerta                      Ellicott at Trinidad

RPI: #7 Crowley County, #20 Rocky Ford, #26 Ellicott, #35 Trinidad, #40 Dolores Huerta

Tri-Peaks League

The Tri-Peaks league title could be decided tonight or we could have to wait a week depending on the winner.  Well talk about that here in a bit.  Colorado Springs Christian travels to Lake County.  Lake County is #30 in the RPI and eliminated from the playoffs they are looking to spoil CSCS and upset them.  CSCS is #15 in the RPI and play Peyton next week so this is a must win game for CSCS.  CSCS is the heavy favorite and should grab the win.  Another league game is St. Mary’s traveling to Rye and both teams are looking to keep building for next year.  The big matchup this week is #8 Peyton traveling to face Buena Vista.  Buena Vista opened the season 0-4 and have since won 3 straight games and could win the league title if they beat Peyton.  Buena Vista without the league title could still possibly get in if they split their final two games.  Buena Vista improvement can be credited to their defense.  They have held teams to under 20 point in their 3 wins and offensively broke 25 points twice.  Buena Vista will have a huge test to see how far they have come against Peyton.  #8 Peyton is 6-1 on the year and their only loss come to Highland.  Peyton has not played a very tough schedule this year with their long winning team being Highland and they lost.  Peyton will have a lot to prove in this game against Buena Vista.  Peyton is a run heavy team with 1758 yards rushing and they are led by senior Tyler Noffsinger 514 yards rushing.  Peyton will be challenge by Buena Vista and this game will tell us a ton about both teams.  I am going with Peyton to beat Buena Vista in a very tight 21-14 game.

Playoff Discussion

I don’t feel comfortable locking any team into the playoffs in the Tri-Peaks.  This is a very down year for the Tri-Peaks and it shows in the RPI #’s.  Lake County, St. Mary’s, and Rye are eliminated from the playoffs.  The other three teams all sit outside the Top 10 and will be interesting to see what happens in the next two weeks.  Peyton sits at #13 with an extremely low OWP at .262 which is one of the lowest in 1A.  If Peyton splits their final two games they will be in trouble.  I know their OWP will go up because of the final two opponents but it won’t break the .500 mark.  Peyton also cannot lock up the league title till they play Colorado Springs Christian next week.  If Peyton splits their final two games with their current numbers their RPI would be .527 and puts them squarely on the bubble.  If Peyton wins out they will make the playoffs and have the league title.  If Peyton drops both games is then the real problems would occur.  Colorado Springs Christian is #15 in the RPI and also have a low OWP .329.  At worst Colorado Springs Christian splits their final two games and their RPI could be around the .515 area and could miss the playoffs.  I am very interested to see what CSCS #’s if they win this week.  The final game will determine a lot but if their OWP goes up a bit then a split could still get them in.  Buena Vista is #17 in the RPI and have the best #’s out of the 3 potential playoff teams.  They win the league title if they beat Peyton this week.  Buena Vista at worst I think splits their final 2 games they would end around the .530 to .540 area and would be in the hunt for the playoff spot.  Of course a loss would eliminate them in the final week.  Buena Vista would love to regain the league crown and that would be a huge shock considering I didn’t think they had a chance.  I think the Tri-Peaks gets 2 teams into the playoffs at most.

#8 Peyton at Buena Vista                                              Colorado Springs Christian at Lake County

St. Mary’s at Rye

RPI: #13 Peyton, #15 Colorado Springs Christian, #17 Buena Vista, #30 Lake County, #31 Rye, #38 St. Mary’s

Western Slope League

The Western Slope league features two very important games in terms of league title and playoff races.  Two teams Grand Valley and Cedaredge play each other and both teams are eliminated from the playoffs.  Both will be looking to build for next year and gain some momentum.  The first of two big games is Olathe at Hotchkiss.  Hotchkiss is 1-2 in league and 3-3 overall.  They are #18 in the RPI and play Cedaredge in their final game.  Hotchkiss is only .004 behind Olathe.  Hotchkiss surprised me thing year going 3-3 and nearly upset Paonia two weeks ago.  Hotchkiss is a run first team and must get their rushing attack going and must control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  Hotchkiss is coming of a critical 15-12 win over Grand Valley and will be looking for another win this week.  Olathe is 4-3 overall and 2-1 in league.  Their league loss is to Paonia and that happened last week when Paonia beat them 42-7.  Olathe will be looking to bounce back and try and keep a hold of a playoff spot.  They are barely ahead of #17 Buena Vista and #18 Hotchkiss.  They can help themselves out with a win over Hotchkiss.  Olathe must get their defensive problems figured out and must control the line of scrimmage.  I am going with Olathe to beat Hotchkiss 21-17.  The big game of the week in all of Class 1A is #3 Meeker at #6 Paonia and could possibly determine the league title.  Paonia is 6-1 on the year and 3-0 in league and have the #8 RPI.  Their lone loss is to Centauri and have bounced back nicely winning 6 straight games.  Paonia on offense is led by senior RB Jaden Miller 1115 yards rushing and 16 TDs.  He is the main cog of this offense and he most have a great game if they plan on beating Meeker.  Paonia defensively has been outstanding.  Giving up over 20 points only twice this season and they rely on their defense to get their offense the ball in good starting position.  Paonia will need to be ready for a dynamic offense and one of the best defense in 1A.  #2 Meeker has been dominate all year.  They have yet to be challenged and running through their league season so far.  This will be their toughest test of the year.  Meeker has played 4 very good rushing attacks this year and stopping all of them.  Meeker has not faced this good of a defense this year though so offensively they will be challenged.  Meeker on offense is very balanced.  Their passing attack is led by Logan Hughes 1205 yards passing and their rushing attack is led by Doak Mantle 589 yards rushing.  Meeker biggest strength is their defense they are only giving up 4.9 ppg and have not given up more and 7 point in a game.  Meeker defense will set the tone and this should be a good game.  Meeker is the favorite in this game and I think defense dominates this game.  I have Meeker winning 21-7.

Playoff Discussion

Grand Valley and Cedaredge are eliminated from the playoffs unless the winner’s number sky rocket after their game.  #3 Meeker is a lock for the playoffs.  #8 Paonia is a lock for the playoff barring an upset in the final game of the season.  The really interesting teams are Olathe and Hotchkiss.  Olathe is #16 in the RPI and trail both Monte Vista and CSCS by .010.  The winner between Olathe and Hotchkiss will move up in the RPI.  If Olathe wins I see them splitting their final two games (they play Meeker in the final game) and their RPI might not change much from what it’s now.  If Olathe loses their final two games they will probably miss the playoffs.  Hotchkiss is #18 in the RPI.  Hotchkiss can win out their final game is against Cedaredge.  Hotchkiss if they win out will end up around the .565 to .575 range and would make the playoffs.  If Hotchkiss splits the final two games they end up around the .523 to .530 range and would be on the edge of making the playoffs.  The numbers after this game will be key to who makes the playoffs.  I have the Western Slope getting 3 teams into the playoffs.

#2 Meeker at #6 Paonia                                                 Olathe at Hotchkiss

Grand Valley at Cedaredge

RPI: #3 Meeker, #8 Paonia, #16 Olathe, #18 Hotchkiss, #24 Cedaredge, #25 Grand Valley