With only 2 weeks left in the regular season some critical games are being played and possible league titles could be decided. For the first time this year I will talk more in depth about the playoffs. I will look more into the RPI and what a win or a loss could do to your playoffs chances. I will use the current OWP and the OOWP. The only thing will change in the RPI is their WP. It’s too difficult to calculate OWP and OOWP and not take 10 hours on this article. Of course numbers will change with wins and loses but it gives you a look at some of the bubble teams.
Colorado League
The Colorado League could be decided this week when #2 Kent Denver travels to face #9 Machebeuf. We will have more on that game here in a bit. Another very important game this week features Elizabeth traveling to Englewood. Englewood is sitting at #27 in the RPI and at 1-2 in league. They are in eliminated from the playoffs. Elizabeth is #13 in the RPI with two very critical games coming up their playoff fate is on the line. Elizabeth ends the season with Machebeuf which is a tossup game so this game against their rival Englewood will determine their fate. If Elizabeth wins they would move to 6-2 and more than likely lock up their playoff spot. Elizabeth with a loss will make things very interesting going forward. I have Elizabeth winning 35-14. This is a big game for these teams heading into next year. The big game on the docket this week features #2 Kent Denver traveling to #9 Machebeuf. Machebeuf cannot lock up the league title with a win this week and will have to wait until their game next week against Elizabeth. Machebeuf is right on the edge of being a lock for the playoffs but one things scare me about Machebeuf RPI. Their OWP (opponents winning percentage) is only .262 which is the lowest in all of Class 2A. Machebeuf is undefeated on the season at 7-0 and are a run heavy offense. They have 1766 yards rushing and 23 TDs. They are led on offense by senior RB Fernando Chavez 719 yards rushing and 12 TDs. Defensively Machebeuf has played extremely well giving up only 7.6 ppg. Machebeuf will be looking for their signature victory in one of their final two games. #2 Kent Denver is also undefeated on the season and are a lock for the playoffs. They sit at #2 in the RPI and have a few key wins on the season over La Junta & Faith Christian. Offensively Kent Denver is very explosive. They have thrown for 715 yards and rushed for 1903 yards. Their offense is led by junior QB Joey Licht 715 yards passing 10 TDs & 1 INT and their rushing attack is led by senior Seven Lindsey 962 yards and 13 TDs. Defensively they have been extremely good besides their shootout with Faith Christian which they gave up 33 points their defense has not allowed over 7 points in a game. They have 4 shutouts and are giving up 6.5 PPG. Kent Denver can lock up the league title with a win over Machebeuf. Kent Denver also with a win lock up the home playoff game and probably a Top 3 seed. I am going with Kent Denver over Machebeuf 35-14.
Playoff Discussion
The Colorado League should get 3 teams into the playoffs. Englewood is eliminated from the playoffs with their RPI just being too low at #27. Elizabeth with a win over Englewood can nearly lock up their playoff spot, they sit at #13. Kent Denver is a lock for the playoffs. The one team of the 3 that scares me is Machebeuf. If Machebeuf loses their final 2 games their RPI could drop to .531 and puts them out of the playoffs. If they split their final two games their RPI could be .572 and would get them into the playoffs. Machebeuf will need to split but they have Kent Denver and Elizabeth so I will be watching their RPI #’s closely.
#2 Kent Denver at #9 Machebeuf Elizabeth at Englewood
Sheridan at Ridgeview Academy
RPI: #2 Kent Denver, #10 Machebeuf, #13 Elizabeth, #27 Englewood, #35 Sheridan, #37 Ridgeview Academy
Flatirons League
The Flatirons league in my eyes has your league champion but officially cannot be locked up until next week. #7 Faith Christian beat D’Evelyn 14-7 and it was a grind out game. Faith Christian is in complete control of league but can’t officially lock up the league title till their final game against Middle Park unless Arvada beats Middle Park. Faith Christian this week hosts Denver West and will be heavily favorited. Faith Christian last week ran for 215 yards and really struggled throwing the ball so getting their offense back on track will be key. D’Evelyn travels to Jefferson this week and will be looking to rebound from a very tough loss. They struggled running the ball rushing for only 102 yards but they threw for 196 yards. D’Evelyn must get back on track this week if they plan on making the playoffs. Middle Park travels to Arvada this week. Middle Park will need the league title to get into the playoffs and will need to win this week then upset Faith Christian in the final week. Middle Park has struggled against good teams this year losing all their games to teams with winning records. Arvada also struggled against top opponents and are eliminated from the playoffs but can start building towards next year. A win over Middle Park knocks them out of the playoffs and helps Arvada build towards next year. I am going with Middle Park to win.
Playoff Discussion
The RPI is not kind to the Flatirons league with only two teams in the top 20 and those are the only 2 teams with playoff hopes. Faith Christian is a lock for the playoff with the #7 RPI they are hoping for a home game in the first round and will only get that with a league title. D’Evelyn is #17 in the RPI and that is not where they want to be. Currently they would just miss the playoffs and they are only .001 behind Alamosa. D’Evelyn OWP will decrease with their final two games against weak opponents. D’Evelyn must win out. If D’Evelyn wins their final two games they could end with an RPI in the .585 but their OWP will drop because they are playing teams with losing records. D’Evelyn does have a very solid chance at making the playoffs.
#7 Faith Christian vs Denver West D’Evelyn at Jefferson
Middle Park at Arvada
RPI: #8 Faith Christian, #17 D’Evelyn, #31 Arvada, #32 Middle Park, #38 Denver West, #42 Jefferson
Intermountain League
The Intermountain league is one step closer to deciding your league champion. Bayfield beat Pagosa Springs in a defensive struggle 21-3. Pagosa Springs proved their toughness in hanging with the #1 team in the state but will now have to quickly bounce back. There are two massive games in the Intermountain League this week and well talk in depth about both. The other game in the Intermountain League is Gunnison at Montezuma-Cortez and this is a huge building game for both teams. Both teams are eliminated from the playoffs so now both teams are looking to build towards next year. The first of two massive games features #1 Bayfield hosting Delta. Delta is 3-4 overall and 2-1 in league. Currently Delta is on a two game winning streak and picked up their biggest win of the season two weeks ago upsetting Alamosa 18-15 and keeping their league title hopes and playoff hopes alive. Delta plays Gunnison in the final game of the season so Delta will need to upset Bayfield by 19 points to gain the league title due to their loss to Pagosa Springs 26-7. Delta last week beat Montezuma-Cortez 23-7 and were very solid stopping the run holding Montezuma-Cortez to just 9 yards rushing. Delta biggest strong point is their defense and they will be tested by Bayfield this week. #1 Bayfield is coming off a hard fought 21-3 win over Pagosa Springs. Bayfield returned David Hawkins to the lineup this week and will be huge going forward both offensively and defensively. Bayfield last week played great defense holding Pagosa to just 3 points and that has been the MO for Bayfield. Bayfield has held 4 teams to under 7 points this year and are only giving up 7 ppg on defense. Offensively Bayfield nearly broke the 300 yards of total offense but all of them were hard earned. Bayfield ran for 187 yards but only 4.9 ypc and threw for 101 yards but 1 INT. Bayfield on offense was led by senior Hunter Killough who ran for 78 yards. Bayfield will once again be tested offensively by a very good Delta defense. If Bayfield wins and Pagosa Springs beats Alamosa Bayfield will be your league champion. I am going with Bayfield over Delta 31-7. The other big game is Alamosa at Pagosa Springs. Pagosa Springs struggled scoring on Bayfield only scoring 3 points. They did play solid on defense holding a very explosive offense under 300 yards of offense and limiting them to under 5 yards a carry. Pagosa Springs will need a very similar effort this week against Alamosa who is another run oriented team and Alamosa will be desperate for a win. Pagosa Springs end the season against Montezuma-Cortez and sitting at #15 in the RPI all games are critical going forward. Alamosa has a critical 2 game stretch to end the season and will probably need to split the games to get into the playoffs. Alamosa last week got back on track with a 48-0 win over Gunnison. Alamosa on the year has been balanced in their attack, passing for 739 yards and rushing for 1462 yards. Alamosa on offense has been led by junior QB John Lujan 569 yards passing and senior RB Reis Martinez 581 yards rushing. Alamosa will need a big offensive night from their two playmakers and will also need a huge defensive effort. Alamosa finishes the season against Bayfield so this is a monster two game stretch for Alamosa. Pagosa Springs showed me a lot against Bayfield and now are looking to lock up their playoff hopes. I think Pagosa Springs defensively is going to have a very solid game and I am going with Pagosa Springs over Alamosa in a very tight 24-21 game. This will be a very good game.
Playoff Discussion
Bayfield is #5 in the RPI and are a lock for the playoffs. Bayfield is looking for a Top 5 seed and will need to win out to keep a Top 5 seed. Delta who is the farthest from the Top 16 is at #20 in the RPI will need some help getting into the playoffs. They will probably need to win out to get into the playoffs. If they split their final two games they will end around the .520 RPI range which is not close to #16 Alamosa at .547. Delta if they win out will move into the .560 range which will put them into the playoffs but Delta hopes at the playoffs will come down to their game against Bayfield this week. Alamosa is #16 in the RPI and have two very difficult games in Pagosa Springs and Bayfield. If Alamosa loses out their RPI will be near .500 and they would miss the playoffs of course one of the bigger factors is the OWP. For Pagosa Springs they are #15 in the RPI they play Montezuma Cortez in the final game and at worst I think split their final two games. If they split their final two games their RPI could go down to .565. The race for the final couple playoff spots will be very interesting. I do think the Intermountain league will get 2 teams in for sure and for Alamosa I think it really depends on how they do this week. Also will depend what happens to Alamosa #’s following this week’s game.
#1 Bayfield vs Delta Alamosa at Pagosa Springs
Gunnison at Montezuma-Cortez
RPI: #4 Bayfield, #15 Pagosa Springs, #16 Alamosa, #20 Delta, #30 Montezuma-Cortez, #33 Gunnison
Patriot-East League
What a race the Patriot East league has been. #3 Platte Valley narrowly escaped against Valley winning 21-14 and set up their league title match against Brush who also pulled off a 28-13 victory over Weld Central. Sterling stayed one game back blasting Fort Lupton 56-28. The Patriot-East could be decided this week if Platte Valley beats Brush. Brush is #21 in the RPI and may need the league title to get into the playoffs. They will have a good shot if they can upset Platte Valley. Brush has really turned their season around winning back to back games. Brush is also a very young team and will continue to improve and be a team to watch out for next year. Brush will have to play their best defensive game of the year against Platte Valley and also get their rushing attack going. #3 Platte Valley was nearly upset coming from behind to beat Valley. Platte Valley may have needed this game to refocus them. They have a chance to lock up the league title if they beat Brush. Platte Valley is also looking towards a home game and a #1 seed in the playoffs if they win out. Platte Valley must get their offense going again after scoring just 21 points. Platte Valley has been dominating on defense and showed again last week. I do think Platte Valley will lock up the league title and I have them winning 28-7. Valley this week travels to Fort Lupton and are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. Valley is in a must win situation this week and a loss would eliminate them. Valley plays Sterling to close out the year so this game against Fort Lupton has huge implications. I do believe Valley will grab a win. The big game this week features #10 Sterling vs Weld Central. Weld Central is at #24 in the RPI and under .500 in the RPI. I believe that sitting that far back they would need a ton of help. Weld Central would need to win out and that will not be an easy task with Sterling and Platte Valley remaining on their schedule. If Weld Central could pull back to back upsets possibly they could sneak into the playoffs. Weld Central was beat by Brush last week 28-13 and now have their hands full against a very dynamic passing attack of Sterling. #10 Sterling light up the scoreboard blasting Fort Lupton 56-28. Sterling was very effective throwing the ball and senior QB Bodie Hume has 1919 yards passing 22 TD’s & 8 INTs he may be the best QB in 2A. Sterling will need him the rest of the way and should win this game as well. I have Sterling winning 35-14.
Playoff Discussion
Very simple for two teams Platte Valley (#1 RPI) and Sterling (#6 RPI) are locks for the playoffs. Valley is #18 and is .010 behind Alamosa who is #16. Valley is in a must win against Fort Lupton especially with Sterling in the final week. Valley could possibly split the games and if they do their RPI could move down to .530. OWP and OOWP will become a huge factor at that point and Valley may need a few things to go their way like Alamosa to lose out and D’Evelyn to get upset. Valley also is being chased by Delta and Brush. Brush also has a chance at the playoffs still. They are .036 behind Alamosa but Brush would probably need some help. Brush may need to win both games which would even give them a shot at the league title as well.
#3 Platte Valley at Brush #10 Sterling vs Weld Central
Valley at Fort Lupton
RPI: #1 Platte Valley, #6 Sterling, #18 Valley, #21 Brush, #24 Weld Central, #34 Fort Lupton
Patriot-West League
The Patriot West league won’t be decided until the final week of the season. Resurrection Christian hosts Pinnacle this week and should cruise to the victory. Resurrection Christian would move to 4-3 overall and 4-0 in league. Resurrection Christian has struggled offensively but are coming along and this could be a very dangerous team next year. Eaton travels to Prospect Ridge this week. Prospect Ridge is having a much improved season. This is their second year of having a football program and could be a threat next year as well. They sit at #22 in the RPI and may just be too low to make a run for the #16 spot. Eaton is 5-2 and also 3-0 in league. They blasted Academy last week 46-6 and cannot overlook Prospect Ridge. Eaton is hoping to make the playoffs after just missing last year and winning the league title will help them do that. Eaton must continue to improve defensively and should beat Prospect Ridge. The other game in the Patriot-West Features University traveling to Academy. University fell to Resurrection Christian 14-8 and with the loss eliminated them from the playoffs. University made the playoffs last year and will look the reload this offseason and try and make a run next year. Academy is #26 in the RPI and with their loss to Eaton last week also were eliminated from making the playoffs. They started the season strong going 3-1 but have lost back to back games and now sit at 4-3 and will miss the playoffs. Both teams will be looking to retool for next year.
Playoff Discussion
Academy and University are eliminated from the playoff race. Prospect Ridge is just holding on to hope of making the playoffs. Prospect Ridge would need to win out. With their current numbers splitting their final two games would only give them a possible .501 RPI which would keep them at #22. If Prospect Ridge wins out their RPI could possibly move to .542 which would put them in the running for a final spot. Resurrection Christian has a high OWP and a split of their final two games is probably all they need to make the playoffs. Eaton is not as comfortable. If Eaton splits their final two games with their current numbers their RPI could drop to .560 and they would sneak in at #16. If Eaton loses both of their final games they will not make the playoffs. Eaton must beat Prospect Ridge to feel comfortable of making the playoffs.
Eaton at Prospect Ridge Resurrection Christian vs Pinnacle
University at Academy
RPI: #12 Resurrection Christian, #14 Eaton, #22 Prospect Ridge, #26 Academy, #29 University, #40 Pinnacle
Tri-Peaks League
The Tri-Peaks is in the final stages of determining your league champion. Classical Academy hosts Lamar and will be a huge favorite. Classical Academy currently is #3 and if they win out could be in line to receive the extra home game available to the non-league champion. Manitou Springs travels to Florence and both squads are eliminated from the playoffs. Manitou Springs even if they win out with their current numbers would move to #19 in the RPI. The league title will be decided this week when #4 La Junta hosts #8 Salida. Salida got back to their winnings ways in a big way. Salida blasted Manitou Springs 60-6 and made quick work scoring 40 points in the first half. Salida I thought would struggle a little with Manitou Springs but they showed they are a very capable team. Salida is pretty balanced on offense throwing for 1519 yards and rushing for 1276 yards. Their offense is led by senior QB Bridger Russell 1502 yards passing 17 TDs and only 2 INTs and their rushing attack is led by senior Cody Farney 566 yards rushing and 7 TDs. Salida will need big game for their two play makers and Salida must play very good run defense if they plan on pulling the upset. #4 La Junta has been dominating once again. Their defense has been one of the best giving up just 8 ppg. La Junta defense will be tested by a very dynamic offense this week. La Junta must get their two headed rushing attack going. Jon Nuschy has 615 yards rushing and Wyatt Buhr has 588 yards rushing. Their offense is dependent on them two and both must have good games. La Junta has not faced a passing attack like Salida and will be a good test for them. Salida will be looking to prove they can beat the defending state champion and I think this will be a good game. I am going with La Junta to avoid the upset and beat Salida 28-17.
Playoff Discussion
La Junta, Classical Academy, and Salida have all punched their tickets for the playoffs. All of them are in the Top 8 and unless one of them gets upset in the final week of the season all 3 should be in the playoffs. Those are the only 3 teams with playoff hopes. Manitou Springs is too far out to make a run at the #16 spot. The Tri-Peaks could possibly get the extra home game if all the favorites this week win.
#4 La Junta vs #8 Salida #5 Classical Academy vs Lamar
Manitou Springs at Florence
RPI: #3 Classical Academy, #5 La Junta, #7 Salida, #23 Manitou Springs, #28 Florence, #36 Lamar
Western Slope League
The Western Slope League is much improved from years past and 4 teams are still alive for the playoffs. Aspen got back to their winning ways blasting Roaring Fork 64-6. They travel to Steamboat Springs and will be the favorite and should get the Win. Coal Ridge travels to Roaring Fork in a must win game. Coal Ridge is on a losing streak and is desperate for a win. They will have a very good chance this week and must get the win. Coal Ridge should win out and they will make their case for a playoff spot. The league title game is this week between #6 Basalt and Moffat County. Moffat County is the surprise team this year. They cannot lock up the league title because they face Aspen next week but with an upset would have a very good shot at the league title. Moffat County only chance at the playoffs is with a league title. They will need to play their best defensive game of the year and must be able to score points. Only one team has slowed Basalt and that was 3A Rifle. Basalt has dominated the Western Slope league and proved their defense is very good. Moffat County must be ready to play their best game of the year. Basalt slowed a very powerful rushing attack down last week against Coal Ridge. Basalt held Coal Ridge to just 14 points and really showed they are a legit defense. Basalt offense has also been very dynamic in back to back weeks breaking the 40-point mark against Aspen and Coal Ridge. Basalt can lock up the league title with a win over Moffat County and the important home game. Basalt will be the favorite in this game. I am going with Basalt over Moffat County 42-14.
Playoff Discussion
No teams have locked up their playoff spot. #9 Basalt can lock up a spot with a win over Moffat County via league title. Aspen has a lower OWP so I don’t feel completely comfortable locking them in. They still have a tough game next week against Moffat County so they will be battling for their playoff spot in the next two weeks. Coal Ridge is #19 in the RPI. Their WP is what is hurting them. They have two very winnable games and if they win both their RPI could possibly move into the .575 range and that would be enough to get into the playoffs. Of course their OWP will drop with their final games against a 2 win and a 0-win team. Coal Ridge though cannot afford a slip up against either team and if they lose either they are out. Moffat County is #25 in the RPI and their only way into the playoffs is with a league title. They still have to play Basalt and Aspen so that won’t be easy. Moffat County is basically playing playoffs football from here on out.
#6 Basalt at Moffat County Aspen at Steamboat Springs
Coal Ridge at Roaring Fork
RPI: #9 Basalt, #11 Aspen, #19 Coal Ridge, #25 Moffat County, #39 Steamboat Springs, #41 Roaring Fork
MileHigh Prep Report 