Class 2A Football Week 10 League Breakdown (Part 1)
The Final week of the regular season. I am going to focus mainly on playoff scenarios and if there are league titles on the line I will make sure to touch on them as well. My RPI #’s I am coming up with are not exact and there are a ton of factors. My RPI #’s just gives some insight on the current situations. I was close last year with my numbers and sticking with the same formula. I will post Part 2 tomorrow morning but due to my late start today I needed to split the article.
Colorado League
Kent Denver is in Control of their own destiny and if Kent Denver wins they win the Colorado League. Standing in Kent Denver’s way is Machebeuf. Machebeuf is 5-3 overall and 3-1 in league. Machebeuf only league loss was to Englewood. Kent Denver is the clear favorite in this. Kent Denver must make sure to control the line of scrimmage. I see Machebeuf playing desperate and they must. Machebeuf only ticket to the playoffs is with a league title. If Machebeuf does win then it’s a three-way tie for the league title and then tie-break scenarios are used. If Machebeuf does upset Kent Denver the highest I see their RPI climbing is to #21. Kent Denver with the win could see their RPI drop even but should hover around the #10 or #11 spot. Englewood is the only other team with a shot at the playoffs in the Colorado League. Englewood SOS is 40 out of 41 and due to that their RPI is very low. Englewood is the favorite in their game and with the win would move to 7-2. RPI wise with a win would move them into the .525 territory which would only move them up to #22. The Colorado League looks like a one berth team if Kent Denver wins the League title.
RPI: #10 Kent Denver, #23 Englewood, #26 Machebeuf, #31 Ridge View Academy, #38 Alameda, #41 Riverdale Ridge
Flatirons League
The Flatirons league remains a tie at the Top with D’Evelyn and Faith Christian remaining atop the league standings. Last week Faith Christian beat Middle Park 54-0 and D’Evelyn beat Bennett 16-8. Faith Christian and D’Evelyn are both on 6 game winning streaks and are both playing good football. Faith Christian has leaned heavily on their rushing attack and D’Evelyn is more of a passing team but recently have picked up the rushing attack as well. I think Defense will be the key in this match-up. Faith Christian and D’Evelyn are also close with points allowed Faith Christian is 82 and D’Evelyn is 88. Faith Christian does have the end in terms of Strength of schedule which should have prepared them for this game. I do think this will be a great game and I am leaning towards Faith Christian to snag the Flatirons league title. Now looking towards playoff scenarios. If Faith Christian does win I see their RPI moving into the .625 area which would be around the #10 to #12 area. A lose for Faith Christian moves them into the .595 area which would also be around #12 or #13. D’Evelyn is a little closer to #16 at #13 and an SOS of 29 also puts them on the edge. D’Evelyn with the win moves them around the .615 area or 11-13 range. A lose for D’Evelyn put them around the .585 area and in the #14 thru #16 area. Teams outside the Top 16 are Bennett and Middle Park. Bennett is playing a must win game and that is the only scenario I looked at. Bennett with a win would move to around .540 to .535 area which keeps them around the #19-#21 spot and looking outside the playoffs. Middle Park also must win and a win would move them to .515 to .520 range and around the 23 to 24 range and outside the playoffs. I do think Faith Christian is a lock for the playoffs with or without the league title but D’Evelyn is a little closer to the edge. Of course my numbers are not exact which is why I leave a range.
RPI: #12 Faith Christian, #13 D’Evelyn, #21 Bennett, #25 Middle Park, #33 Arvada, #36 Denver West
Intermountain League
The Intermountain League remains at a tie atop the standings between Salida and Bayfield. Bayfield was in a barn burner scoring a two point conversion to snag the win against Pagosa Springs. Salida had a little easier game beating Montezuma-Cortez 35-0. I say a little easier because Montezuma-Cortez was only down 14-0 at halftime and pushed Salida to the end. This should be one of the better games in the entire state regardless of classification and it determines quite a bit. Bayfield is #2 in the RPI and Salida is #4. Keys to the win for Bayfield are: Can their offense move the ball against a very good Salida defense. Hayden Farmer must play his best game of the season to prevent Salida from loading the box and of course prevent turnovers. Keys for Salida are just the same, can Salida offense move the ball against a very good Bayfield defense. Salida will need a player on offense to step up on offense and could be their QB David Zwingers or RB Vince Deleo. Salida did have an extra week of preparation and the break could either hurt or help a team. This game could be neck and neck and I am going to lean towards Bayfield in this game. I am looking at their experience in the state finals in picking the winner. The other huge game is Pagosa Springs vs Alamosa. Both teams desperately need the win to help give themselves a shot at the playoffs. Alamosa had a week to prepare for this game and are still searching for their first league win. Pagosa Springs has played a very tough schedule and are looking to help lock up their playoff spot. The big question is can they bounce back from a heart wrenching loss to Bayfield last week. I am going with Pagosa Springs in this game as they bounce back. Looking at the playoffs things are very crazy in the IML and all 5 teams were in question. Starting with Bayfield a win over Salida could move them into the .715 area which puts them in the hunt for the #1 overall seed. A loss to Salida moves Bayfield into the .670 to .680 range which puts them in the 3-5 range. Salida with the win over Bayfield moves into the .680 range and has them in the 3-4 range. A loss to Bayfield and Salida moves around the .650 to .645 range and between the 6-8 RPI. Looking at Pagosa Springs and a win over Alamosa moves them around .595 to .585 and between 12-14. A loss against Alamosa and Pagosa drops to .565 to .555 range and that puts them square on the bubble between 16-18. Montezuma-Cortez is in a must win situation and I will only look at a winning scenario. If Montezuma-Cortez wins against Albuquerque Academy then Montezume-Cortez is looking between the .570-.560 range and keep them fighting for the #15-17 spot. A loss would hurt Montezuma-Cortez especially with Berthoud, Sterling, University, and Alamosa all on their tails. The final team to talk about is Alamosa. A win over Pagosa Springs is their only option and it would help and move them around .555 range which is still outside the Top 16. The reason why is Pagosa Springs may have a high RPI but that is due to their OWP and if Alamosa does beat them then Pagosa record would drop to 3-5 and would hurt Alamosa OWP. I do think the Intermountain League has a good shot at 4 teams making it into the playoffs.
RPI: #2 Bayfield, #4 Salida, #14 Pagosa Springs, #16 Montezuma-Cortez, #19 Alamosa
Patriot East League
The Patriot East has 1 team atop the league standings and that is Platte Valley. Platte Valley and Brush face each other this week and it will be for the league title. Platte Valley controls their own destiny and a win over Brush locks up the league title. Brush on the other hand is hoping to force a three-way tie for the league title and give themselves a shot at the playoffs. Brush only hopes for a playoff berth is the league title and that will be a huge task. Platte Valley is hoping to hold onto or improve their RPI. A win would help a bit and Platte Valley will need to be able to stop the run. I am going with Platte Valley in this game and clinch the league title. Playoff scenario wise Platte Valley is a lock for the playoffs. A win and their RPI could move around the .655 to .650 range and that is currently were they sit around 6-8 range. Platte Valley with the lose would instead drop to .620 range which puts them around 10-11. Sterling has to win so we will only look at that scenario. Sterling with the win could improve their RPI to around the .565 to .555 range which gives them a shot at the #16 seed. Brush only hopes are the league title to get into the playoffs.
RPI: #6 Platte Valley, #18 Sterling, #30 Brush, #34 Weld Central, #37 Fort Lupton, #39 Valley,
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