2A League Breakdown

Class 2A Football Week 10 League Breakdown (Part 2)

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Picture by Melanie Johnson (Berthoud vs The Academy)
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Class 2A Football Week 10 League Breakdown (Part 2)

The Final week of the regular season.  I am going to focus mainly on playoff scenarios and if there are league titles on the line I will make sure to touch on them as well.  My RPI #’s I am coming up with are not exact and there are a ton of factors.  My RPI #’s just gives some insight on the current situations.  I was close last year with my numbers and sticking with the same formula

Patriot West League

Resurrection Christian is your league champion and have clinched the automatic berth into the playoffs.  Currently Resurrection Christian has the #1 RPI.  Their final game is against Prospect Ridge who is 1-7.  This game won’t help Resurrection Christian RPI much and will more than likely need some help to keep the #1 RPI.  The one thing I know for sure is a Top 3 RPI will be in Resurrection Christian future.  Moving on a huge game in terms of RPI and league standings takes place when Eaton and Berthoud face off.  Eaton is coming off a 42-0 win over Prospect Ridge and regained some confidence they had.  Eaton biggest problem this season has been scoring points.  Eaton defense has been top notch and they will need them to step up again this week.  Berthoud is coming off a 25-14 loss to University.  Berthoud will have to quickly bounce back as they fight for their playoff hopes.  Berthoud must find a way to get their offense going and get their defense to step up.  This is going to be another very good game.  Berthoud will have to find a way to get their offense going and Eaton is hoping their defense can play another lock down day.  I am going with Eaton in a very close game.  Looking towards the playoff race Resurrection Christian has the auto berth and hoping to keep the #1 overall seed.  Resurrection Christian with the win should have their RPI around the .700-.690 range which could move them to the #2 spot.  Eaton is a lock for the playoffs but RPI and seeding can change.  Eaton with the win could see their RPI move to .655 to .650 which would put them in the 6-8 range. If Eaton loses they could see their RPI move to .625 to .620 which puts them around the 9-11 range. Berthoud is in a must win scenario at #17.  Berthoud has to win this game and if they could see their RPI move to .580-.575 which puts them in the 14-15 range.  University is the other team with a shot at an at-large berth.  University must win to even have a shot.  University with a win could see their RPI move into the .550-.545 range which puts them in the 17-18 range and just missing the playoffs.  Of course, my numbers have a few assumptions so things could be different.  The Academy does sit at #24 but after seeing University only jump up a few spots I have eliminated The Academy from the playoff hunt.

RPI: #1 Resurrection Christian, #8 Eaton, #17 Berthoud, #20 University, #24 The Academy, #36 Prospect Ridge

Tri-Peaks League

La Junta is your league champion and have locked up the automatic berth and a home game.  La Junta plays Manitou Springs this week and will be heavily favored in the game.  If La Junta does win they should stay in the Top 5 and then it just depends on the rest of the results, but I am guessing a #3 seed if La Junta can beat Manitou Springs.  Elizabeth has a huge game this week against Lamar.  Elizabeth is #15 in the RPI and squarely on the bubble.  A loss for Elizabeth would be damaging and to prevent that they must establish the running game and must find a way to slow down a dangerous Lamar team.  Lamar is hoping for the upset and then some luck to try and just 11 spots into the playoffs.  I do know that Lamar is very young, and a win could really boost morale heading into next season.  Elizabeth is in do or die situation and winning is the key to getting into the playoffs.  TCA plays Woodland Park and is probably not the right time to have a opponent sitting with 0 wins on the schedule.  Looking towards the playoffs we mentioned La Junta and a solid opportunity to find a top 3 seed.  Elizabeth has to win to stay in the playoff hunt.  Elizabeth with the win could stay put in the .570 range but that still puts them in danger.  TCA and Lamar are just a bit to far out to make a jump into the top 16.  TCA with a win could move into .535 range but playing a 0-8 team this late hurts their OWP.  Lamar even with an upset would only jump to .530 but momentum for next season is very important.  La Junta is a for sure lock but Elizabeth must win or will be eliminated from the playoffs.

RPI: #3 La Junta, #15 Elizabeth, #22 Classical Academy, #27 Lamar, #29 Manitou Springs, #40 Woodland Park

Western Slope League

Things continue to get interesting in the Western Slope League and we now have a 3-way tie for first place in the league.  Aspen, Basalt, and Rifle are all tied at 3-1 in league.  Rifle plays Moffat County and a win keeps them in the hunt for a league title and they also just await the results of the Aspen vs Basalt game.  Rifle wins the league title if Basalt beats Aspen due to their head to head win over Basalt.  Basalt vs Aspen is the game to talk about and should be a good game.  Basalt was beat last week by Rifle 35-14.  Basalt struggled with turnovers giving the ball up 4 times.  Basalt did keep Tanner Vines under 200 yards rushing but turnovers really cost this team the game.  Basalt will have to fix the turnover problem as they prepare for an explosive offensive team.  Aspen is coming off a 37-13 win over Coal Ridge.  Aspen controls their own destiny now.  A win for Aspen give them the league title.  Aspen will have to be ready for a balanced offensive attack.  Aspen also must take care of the ball and cannot afford to have a ton of turnovers.  I am guessing this will be a higher scoring game and I am going with Basalt to hold off Aspen in a very good game.  I can really see this game going either direction.  Looking towards the playoff scenarios.  Basalt is essentially eliminated from the league title hunt.  They instead hope to jump Salida and host a first round game.  If Basalt beats Aspen their RPI could move into the .670 range and into the 4-5 spots.  If Basalt loses their RPI could drop around .635 and would put them into the 9-10 range.  Rifle has no control on their destiny besides needing to beat Moffat County.  Rifle with a win could see their RPI move around .645-.635 which is in the 8-9 range.  Delta is #9 and hoping to say in the that same spot.  A win for Delta keep them in the 9-11 range.  A loss for Delta is much more damaging and their RPI could drop into the .573-.563 range which puts them in the 15-17 range.  Delta game against Coal Ride is basically a must win game for Delta.  Aspen as mentioned control their own destiny.  Aspen with the win over Basalt locks up the league title.  If Aspen does win their RPI could move into the .635-.625 range which puts them around 9-11 range.  A loss for Aspen does hurt a bit and could see their RPI drop to around .600-.595 range.  That would put them around 13-14 but still in the playoffs.  Moffat County and Coal Ridge were eliminated last week.  I do think the Western Slope will get 4 teams into the playoffs.

RPI: #5 Basalt, #7 Rifle, #9 Delta, #11 Aspen, #28 Moffat County, #32 Coal Ridge

Teams from each League in the hunt or locked up a berth

Colorado League: 2

Flatirons:3

Intermountain:5

Patriot East:3

Patriot West: 4

Tri-Peaks: 3

Western Slope:4

24 teams are still in the hunt for a playoff berth and only 16 will get into the playoffs.  Winning your last game of the season is key.

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