2A League Breakdown

Class 2A Football Week 10 League Breakdown

Bayfield High School Happenings (Bay vs PG
Picture by Bayfield High School Happening Page (Pagosa Springs vs Bayfield)

Class 2A Football Week 10 League Breakdown

Just 1 week left in the regular season.  Still some league title to give out and teams looking to secure a playoff spot.  A few things to note before diving into class 2A is, 2 League title will be given to teams outside the top 16 so you must finish in the top 14, and most teams outside the top 10 must win to feel secure going into selection Sunday.  I will go dive much deeper into the RPI for select teams at the end of the article.

Colorado League

The Colorado League has had plenty of surprises this season and it continued that trend last week.  Englewood was sitting atop the league standings and inside the top 16 of the RPI.  Englewood faced Machebeuf last week and Machebeuf pulled a shocker scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter to stun Englewood 26-12.  The win not only shook up the Colorado League but the RPI in general.  Englewood fell to #19 in the RPI and Machebeuf rose to #26 in the RPI.  Now the Colorado League has turned into a one playoff team league with the league champion only getting in and the league champion will be outside the top 16 and steal a at-large berth.  The league championship will come down to Englewood vs Ridge View Academy.  Ridge View Academy picked up their third straight victory beating Riverdale Ridge 28-7 and setting up the league title match.  Ridge View Academy needed to have this run to have any shot at the league title and they pulled it off.  Ridge View Academy will have to play outstanding defense this week against a balanced offense and their offense will be tested.  Englewood will have to quickly bounce back from last weeks game.  Look for the leaders of the team to really step up this week.  QB Mason Robertson and RB Yakez Daughtry will look to step up for Englewood offensively.  Defensively Englewood will look to fix the mistakes of last weeks game.  Looking at the rest of the Colorado League Machebeuf is just to far away from the top 14 to get into the playoffs and the same goes with the rest of the league.

Playoff Contenders: Englewood and Ridge View Academy

RPI: Englewood (19), Machebeuf (26), Riverdale Ridge (31), Kent Denver (32), Ridge View Academy (36), Alameda (41)

Flatirons League

The Flatirons League has a handful of teams still in the playoff hunt and a league title still to be decided.  Last week a small shake up occurred when Bennett beat D’Evelyn 20 to 7.  The win pushed Bennett up to #12 in the RPI and D’Evelyn fell from the top 16 to #20.  D’Evelyn is not hoping to force a three-way tie for a league title but have Faith Christian standing in their way.  D’Evelyn sits at #20 in the RPI and is a must win game.  Offensively QB Shane Bishop must have a break out game.  Bishop is the key to this offense along with WR Thomas Lowry.  If D’Evelyn offense can take care of the ball and have solid performances from key players, this team could pull the upset.  Defensively D’Evelyn must stop the run.  If D’Evelyn can force Faith Christian to throw the ball more it gives them the best shot at winning.  D’Evelyn will have to play their best game of the season to split the league title and give themselves a shot at the playoffs.  Faith Christian last week beat Middle Park 28-0.  I expected Faith Christian to win by more, but the shutout is big.  Faith Christian now face a pass heavy team and must be able to tackle in space.  Defending the pass will be key for Faith Christian defense.  Offensively Faith Christian is a run heavy team.  RB Erick Granados and RB Edoardo Castaneda have been the main work horses for Faith Christian.  I know that RB Edoardo Castaneda did not play against Middle Park and Bennett and will be interested to see if he plays this week.  If both RB’s are healthy it makes the back field much more dangerous for Faith Christian.  I am still surprised to see QB Isiah Kroll with the minimal amount of passing yards he has had.  This should be a great matchup and come down to the wire.  If a three-way tie is forced by D’Evelyn it will be broken by RPI.  Looking at other teams in the playoff hunt are Bennett and Arvada.  Bennett finishes the season with a game against Denver West and is a must win game.  Bennett will hope their RPI even with a win does not drop.  The win won’t boost their RPI that much.  Arvada is in a must win game against Middle Park.  Arvada may be to far back to get into the playoffs.

Updated League Predictions:

Playoff Contenders: Faith Christian, D’Evelyn, Bennett, Arvada,

RPI: Faith Christian (8), Bennett (12), D’Evelyn (20), Arvada, (25), Middle Park (35), Denver West (38)

Intermountain League

The IML League is a 1 team into the playoff league this year.  The league champion is the only team with a shot at the playoffs.  Last week Pagosa Springs stunned Bayfield 42-0.  Pagosa Springs took control of their own destiny now.  The Intermountain League will be decided this week when Pagosa Springs host Alamosa.  Alamosa best shot at the playoffs is to force a three-way tie for the league title.  The Tie Breaker in the IML goes as following and thanks to Rion Eagan for getting me the correct information he informed me if a three-way tie is forced then it will be broken by RPI!  Alamosa will have to play their best run defense of the year.  Alamosa will also have to stay disciplined against the double wing option that Pagosa Springs runs.  Last week Alamosa had a big performance from Freshman QB Kasey Jones who threw for 206 yards and 2 TDs.  I am not sure the status of QB Brendon Madril, but Jones played well.  RB Luke Smith also had a big performance and Alamosa.  Alamosa offensively must be able to score points this week if this turns into a shootout.  Pagosa Springs surprised me with the big win over Bayfield.  QB Grant Aucoin and RB Paden Bailey had big games for Pagosa Springs.  These two could have big performances yet again this week and probably will be needed.  Defensively Pagosa Springs must be able to stop the run and force Alamosa to beat them thru the air.  This should be a good game and has a lot on the line.  Quickly looking at Bayfield they play Salida this week and must win to keep the any hope at the playoffs and league title alive.  Some new information has informed me if a three-way tie is forced then it will be broken by RPI!

Playoff Contenders: Bayfield, Pagosa Springs, Alamosa

RPI: Alamosa (21), Pagosa Springs (23), Bayfield (24), Montezuma-Cortez (37), Salida (39)

Patriot East League

Sterling sits alone atop the Patriot East League standings.  They have not locked up the league title and the league title will be decided this week when they face Weld Central.  Weld Central has been a big surprise this year and kept their league title hopes alive last week beating Brush 21-14.  Weld Central will not have to play their best game of the season.  Offensively Weld Central will look to RB Zayne Stam and QB Levi Gerkin.  These two are critical to Weld Central offense getting going.  Defensively Weld Central will faced a balanced offensive attack.  They will look to stun a top team and I think it will be because of their defense if they do.  Sterling is hoping to lock up a top 3 seed.  Sterling has played a tough schedule and taken care of every game inside Colorado this year.  Sterling offensively runs through QB Brock Shalla.  If he has a big game, then Sterling will have plenty of success.  Defensively Sterling is the real deal.  Against Colorado teams Sterling has given up just 58 points this season and have given up just over 14 points twice.  I am not sure of the tie breaker for the Patriot East league.  Platte Valley is the only team besides Weld Central and Sterling to Mention.  Platte Valley travels to Brush this weekend.  Platte Valley sits at #10 in the RPI and are a near lock.  A win over Brush locks them in but a loss makes things a bit more interesting.

Playoff Contenders: Sterling, Platte Valley, and Weld Central

RPI: Sterling (2), Platte Valley (10), Weld Central (17), Brush (28), Valley (29), Fort Lupton (40)

Patriot West League

The Patriot West League Champion is Resurrection Christian.  They have locked up the league title and now are fighting for a Top 3 seed in the playoffs.  Resurrection Christian I think have a good shot at a top 3 seed.  Resurrection Christian faces Prospect Ridge and should walk away with the win.  Resurrection Christian has proven this year that their defense is legit and offensively have come alive with QB Buck Coors really stepping up.  Eaton sits at #9 in the RPI.  Eaton is hoping to get some help to host a playoff game.  With 2A using 4 different polls to seed Eaton must win and get some help to jump into the #8 seed.  Eaton is a lock for the playoffs but must avoid getting upset to keep a shot at hosting.  The Academy sits at #15 in the RPI and University sits at #18 in the RPI.  Both these teams are still alive for the playoffs but only 1 will keep that hope alive after they play each other this week.  Remember you will need to get into the Top 14 to get into the playoffs and I think the winner will have a good shot.  The Academy will be looking to bounce back after losing to Resurrection Christian last week.  Offensively the Academy will turn to QB Brandon Boston.  Boston must have a huge game if The Academy plans to win.  Defensively the Academy must also have a solid day as they are playing a balanced offensive attack.  University has won two straight games and dominated in both.  University has proven at times this season they can hand with the top teams.  Defensively University must be able to stop the pass.  If University struggles stopping the pass it will be a long day for their defense.  Offensively University must have a big day from QB Coy Cox and RB Sam Custer.  Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives and should be a competitive game.  I will dive much more into the RPI numbers at the end.

Playoff Contenders: Resurrection Christian, Eaton, University, and The Academy

RPI: Resurrection Christian (1), Eaton (9), The Academy (15), University (18), Berthoud (34), Prospect Ridge (36)

Tri-Peaks League

Classical Academy is your Tri-Peaks League Champion.  They now look to try and improve their seed and prepare for the state playoffs.  Classical Academy this week travels to Woodland Park.  Woodland Park sits at #22 in the RPI and need an upset over TCA to have any shot at the playoffs.  TCA I don’t think will overlook Woodland Park as they have played tough against nearly every team this year.  Lamar is a lock for the playoffs with a win or loss this week.  Lamar is hoping to host a first-round game and a win over Elizabeth will give them a good shot.  Elizabeth sits at #11 in the RPI.  They are a bit more on the bubble.  A win will lock them into the playoffs, but a loss will make things a bit more interesting.  I think they should still be locked in, but we will run their RPI numbers.  Lamar vs Elizabeth will be a very good measuring stick game for both teams.  La Junta sits at #13 in the RPI and are on the bubble for sure.  La Junta has a must win game on the road at Manitou Springs this week.  Manitou Springs is hoping to play spoiler this week.  La Junta defensively has shut down nearly every team, but their problems come on offense.  If La Junta can get going offensively this team will be dangerous.  If La Junta plans to beat Manitou Springs, their offense must get going but also look for their defense to dominate this week again.

Playoff Contenders: Classical Academy, Lamar, Elizabeth, La Junta, Woodland Park

RPI: Classical Academy (4), Lamar (6), Elizabeth (11), La Junta (13), Woodland Park (22), Manitou Springs (30)

Western Slope League

The Western Slope League title belongs to Rifle.  Rifle locked up the league title with the 21-9 win over Basalt last week.  Rifle now hopes to improve their seed and lock up a top 3 seed.  Rifle finishes the season against Moffat County.  Moffat County has their back against the rope and need an upset to get into the playoffs.  Moffat County sits at #17 and I don’t think a loss will get them into the top 14.  Rifle cannot afford a loss, or their seed will drop.  This will be a run heavy game and which ever team controls the line of scrimmage will win.  Delta sits at #5 in the RPI and are in position to host a first-round game.  They end the year against Coal Ridge and should walk away with the win.  Basalt sits at #7 in the RPI and are a lock for the playoffs but end the season against Aspen.  Basalt will have their hands full against an Aspen team who is looking to get into the playoffs.  Basalt will have to have big performances from QB Matty Gillis and RB Cole Dombrowski.  Aspen sits at #16 in the RPI and currently are on the outside looking in.  Aspen with a loss to Basalt will see their RPI improve but will it be enough to jump into the top 14.  Aspen with an upset of Basalt will get into the playoffs and they will be hungry for the win.  Aspen will look to QB Tyler Ward to have another big performance this week.  I think this game will be on his shoulders if Aspen plan to win this game.  This will be a good game!

Playoff Contenders: Rifle, Delta, Basalt, Moffat County, Aspen

RPI: Rifle (3), Delta (5), Basalt (7), Aspen (16), Moffat County (17), Coal Ridge (27)

RPI Numbers

If you have any questions about anything below, please message me and I can try and explain more.  This was tough to write up.

After going thru what teams I thought were still on the bubble or outside the top 14 we have some very interesting scenarios going on.  First Platte Valley and Elizabeth are locks.  Platte Valley and Elizabeth are #10 and #11 in the RPI.  After that no teams are locked in.  Bennett is the closest to being locked in they play Denver West and should win that game.  The win will hurt their RPI though.  Bennett RPI will be around .55715 to .55730.  Bennett with a win is a lock for the playoffs.  After that things get very very messy.  7 teams are in the hunt for just 2 spots.

La Junta must win to have any shot to start.  After that OOWP (Opponents, Opponents winning percentage become a huge factor).  La Junta I think end around a .55140 to .55155 RPI.  That would put them around the #13 to #14 spot and only a few crazy scenarios will keep them out.

Moffat County has two different scenarios to getting into the playoffs.  The first is upset Rifle and you get in.  Very simple the win will easily put them into the playoffs.  I don’t see Moffat County pulling the upset so the scenario #2 is the more likely.  Moffat County with a loss sees their RPI around .55130 to .55145.  They will then need University to win and their OOWP to increase enough to stay ahead of University.

Weld Central has just 1 way into the playoffs and that is upset Sterling.  If they do that, they are in and if they lose their RPI will not increase enough.

The Academy can only get in by beating University.  If the Academy beats University their RPI improves around .55335 to .55350.  That would put them in at #13 RPI.

University play The Academy and must win.  If University wins their RPI could improve to .55140 to .55150.  Depending on a few scenarios that would put them right behind La Junta or even with La Junta at #13/#14.  University and La Junta would need Aspen, Weld Central, and Alamosa to all lose.

Aspen is the 1 scenario that really can throw things off.  If Aspen upsets Basalt which will be a good game.  Aspen RPI could improve to .56225 to .56235 and jump to the #12 RPI.  This scenario would squeeze the bubble even smaller.  Aspen cannot get in without the upset though!

So, to try and wrap things up I will try and make this easier to process:  I am naming the scenarios to try and help make this easier.

The Aspen Scenario- Aspen upsets Basalt, Moffat County loses to Rifle, Weld Central losses to Sterling
If Aspen upsets Basalt their RPI would improve to #12.  Bennett would drop to the #13 spot.
Moffat County would still be alive for the final spot but would need their OOWP to increase to jump both La Junta and University.  Moffat County needs The Academy to lose.
The Academy snags the final spot with a win over University.  If University beats The Academy, then La Junta and University will be neck and neck for the final spot.

 

The Aspen Scenario-Aspen loses to Basalt, Moffat County losses to Rifle, Weld Central losses to Sterling
If Aspen losses to Basalt, then Bennett would hold to the #12 RPI
The Academy with a win over University would grab the #13 spot and La Junta would have the #14 spot.
University with a win over The Academy would put La Junta and University in the #13 and #14 RPI as long as Moffat County OOWP does not increase enough to jump one or both.

 

#3 Scenario- Aspen upsets Basalt, Alamosa beats Pagosa, The Academy beats University, Moffat County losses to Rifle
This would be a fun scenario.
Aspen would have the #12 spot and Bennett would have the #13 spot.
Alamosa would win the league title over Pagosa Springs
The #15 spots would go to The Academy for beating University.

 

1 thought on “Class 2A Football Week 10 League Breakdown”

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s