Class 1A Boys Basketball Breakdown

Class 1A Boys Basketball District Predictions Week 10

Picture by Vibrant Valley Photography (Sierra Grande vs Moffat)

Class 1A Boys Basketball District Predictions Week 10

We have less than 2 weeks until the District Tournaments.  It’s crunch time and improving your seed for District is key to reaching regionals.  So, a few updates from last week.  The bulletin states that all Districts must seed using RPI.  For Regionals Region 2 & 3 will seed using RPI and avoiding any previous district matchups.  With this I will be making changes to my regional predictions and when looking at each District I will be factoring in the RPI.  For my predictions I will be using the Districts from the CHSAA bulletin which is how team will qualify for regionals.  I also see they have reverted to 2019 rules to qualify for regionals and state.  I will post that below.  I will also post a copy of the new rules from the bulletin itself and if regions or district are doing something different please let me know.

How to Qualify for Regionals and State

8 District each qualify 2 or 3 teams to three regionals.  The three regionals are posted below

Region 1Region 2Region 3
District 1 & 8District 4, 5, 7District 2, 3, 6

The #1 and #2 seeds from Districts 1 and 8 will be paired, while the #1, #2, and #3 seeds from Districts 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 will advance to a regional site.  In Region 2 (4,5,7) and Region 3 (2, 3, 6), the nine qualify teams will be seeded by RPI avoiding any previous district matchups.  In Region 1, District 1 and 8 #1s will play each other districts #2.  Region 1 receives 2 state qualifiers, Region 2 & 3 receive three state qualifiers each.

After the Final 8 teams have been determined the teams will be re-seeded base on the following: The eight regional winners advance to the state tournament where they will be seeded by seeding criteria approved in a committee, made up of administrative representatives.  The committee may use the following criteria to seed the final pairings: final RPI, previous district matchup’s, head-to-head competition, and common opponents.

A consolation bracket will be played in the Great 8.

District 1

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Caprock Academy

2. Dove Creek

Contenders:

Ouray

District 1 only gets 2 teams to regionals.  Caprock Academy is still the team I think wins this District Tournament.  Caprock Academy will be battle tested playing a 2A schedule but most teams in this District do the same.  Caprock Academy is currently 12-2 and on a 5-game winning streak.  Caprock Academy will face Rangely tonight but have a huge game against Ouray on Saturday.  I am sticking with Dove Creek as my team to finish in second place.  If Ouray and Dove Creek meet in the District tournament it will be the rubber match with each team winning a game against each other.  Dove Creek closes the season against Dolores, Monticello UT, and Nucla.  Ouray still holds onto the #3 spot.  Ouray has played a tough schedule and they bounced back from their OT loss to Dove Creek beating Nucla 59-33.  Ouray has 2 games remaining both will be tough but the matchup against Caprock Academy is the main one to watch for.

RPI for District 1

#7 Caprock Academy, #26 Dove Creek, #31 Ouray, #41 De Beque

District 2

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Granada

2. McClave

3. Wiley

Contenders:

Cheyenne Wells

Cheraw

District 2 gets 3 team into regionals and will compete against District 3 & 6 at Regionals.  If the bulletin is correct and all Districts are seeded by RPI then as of 2/9 the tournament would be seeded as follows; #1 Granada, #2 McClave, #3 Wiley, #4 Cheyenne Wells, #5 Cheraw, #6 Eads, and #7 Kit Carson.  Granada would get a bye into the semifinals and everyone else would play a pigtail game.  Winners keep their hopes alive for a berth to regionals.  The most intriguing matchups would be Cheraw vs Cheyenne Wells in the pigtail round.  I do think Eads vs Wiley could also be very entertaining.  I am still going with Granada as my team to win the District 2 tournament.  Granada is 14-0 but they end the season with a bang with 4 of their 5 final being quality opponents.  Granada will face Kim/Branson tonight and Cheyenne Wells tomorrow.  McClave is my pick to finish in second place.  McClave continues to play well in 2022 and their 72-46 win over Cheyenne Wells last week shows how good this team is.  McClave does have 2 huge game remaining against Wiley and Granada to end the season.  Wiley stays as my team to snag the final automatic berth.  Wiley is currently 11-4 and they have picked up solid wins over Eads and Kim/Branson after losing to Syracuse KS.  Wiley must still face Granada and McClave before the dust settles in District 2.  Cheyenne Wells is a contender to challenge the top 3.  Cheyenne Wells is 10-4 but their 26 point loss to McClave shows they will have some work to do to jump into the top 3.  Cheyenne Wells did bounce back beating Stratton on Saturday.  Cheyenne Wells will face Granada on Friday but the game against Cheraw could be for home court in the Pigtail round.  Cheraw is another contender but they have hit a rough patch losing 3 straight games including a loss to Eads last week.  Cheraw must bounce back quickly and have a shot against Kit Carson on Friday.  They are slowly losing grasp of jumping Cheyenne Wells for the #4 seed in the District Tournament. 

RPI for District 2

#3 Granada, #8 McClave, #11 Wiley, #16 Cheyenne Wells, #19 Cheraw, #37 Eads, #42 Kit Carson

District 3

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Springfield

2. Kim/Branson

3. Primero

Contenders:

La Veta

District 3 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 2 & District 6.  District 3 so far has been a battle and has been very hard to separate the top 4 teams.  If all District tournament are seeded by RPI the seeds as of today (2/9) would be as follows; #1 Springfield, #2 Kim/Branson, #3 La Veta, #4 Primero, #5 South Baca, #6 Manzanola, and #7 Walsh.  Springfield would get the bye into the Semifinals and would be one win away from Regionals.  I think the top 4 seed should all advance into the semifinals.  I am sticking with Springfield as my team to win the District 3 tournament.  Springfield has been consistent against teams in their District.  Springfield must face La Veta and Kim/Branson still in district and seeding could still easily change.  Kim/Branson is my pick to finish in 2nd place.  Kim/Branson within District has been solid but falling to Eads and Wiley recently has hurt their RPI.  Kim/Branson will face Granada tonight before moving back in District to close the year against South Baca, La Veta, and Springfield.  Primero stays as my pick to finish in 3rd place and snag the final automatic spot.  Primero 5 point loss to Springfield hurts but they have bounce back well beating La Veta and pushing 2A Custer County falling by just 5.  Primero does not have any more league matchups and will look to improve their RPI heading into the District Tournament as right now they would be the #4 seed.  La Veta is my pick to finish in 4th and just miss out on Regionals.  La Veta has played well down the stretch and seem to be coming together.  La Veta blew past Cotopaxi 72-41 on Friday ahead of their key matchup against Springfield tomorrow.  La Veta can still improve their seed with games against Kim/Branson and Sierra Grande.  

RPI for District 3

#20 Springfield, #24 Kim/Branson, #30 La Veta, #33 Primero, #46 South Baca, #51 Manzanola, #58 Walsh

District 4

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Haxtun

2. Briggsdale

3. Merino

Contenders:

Prairie

Fleming

Prairie

Longmont Christian

District 4 will get 3 teams into regionals.  District 4 will compete against District 5 & 7 at Regionals.  If Districts are seeded by RPI only as stated in the bulletin the seeding based on the RPI on 2/9 the seeds would be; #1 Briggsdale, #2 Merino, #3 Haxtun, #4 Prairie, #5 Longmont Christian, #6 Fleming, #7 Caliche, #8 Peetz, and #9 Weldon Valley.  The #8 vs #9 teams would play a pigtail game to get to the quarterfinals.  Some very good matchups would take place in the quarterfinals.  #3 Haxtun vs #6 Fleming, #7 Caliche vs #2 Merino, and #4 Prairie vs #5 Longmont Christian.  Still time for things to change but I think this will be a slugfest for the top 3 spots.  My pick to win the District tournament is Haxtun.  Haxtun would have a tough quarterfinals game against Fleming and would possibly face Merino in the semifinals.  Haxtun, I feel is starting to peak at the right time.  Based on what I think the seeding could be I am going with Briggsdale to finish in second.  Briggsdale has just 1 loss on the season to Haxtun.  Briggsdale could have the easier path to the finals as the #1 seed and wouldn’t face Merino or Haxtun till the finals.  Briggsdale has bounced back from their loss to Haxtun picking up back to back wins.  Briggsdale has 3 games remaining with the most interesting being Prairie on 2/18.  Merino is my pick to finish in 3rd place.  Merino is 11-4 currently and also look to be peaking at the right time.  Merino defeated a top 2A team in Holyoke and will take their shot at the #1 team in 2A tonight.  Merino still must face Haxtun again and could be the difference between the #2 and #3 seed.  Merino will be battle tested.  Prairie is a contender to challenge for a top 3 spot.  Prairie has found their groove again winning 5 of their past 6 games.  Prairie still must face Briggsdale but look to have the #4 spot in the District Tournament.  Longmont Christian and Fleming will also be contenders but will need an upset in the Quarterfinals to push into the Semifinals and have a shot.

RPI for District 4

#4 Briggsdale, #10 Merino, #12 Haxtun, #21 Prairie, #29 Longmont Christian, #32 Fleming, #40 Caliche, #45 Peetz, #62 Weldon Valley

District 5

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Genoa-Hugo

2. Idalia

3. Stratton

Contenders:

Otis

Arickaree/Woodlin

District 5 gets 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 4 & 7 at regionals.   If all districts are seeded by RPI then the seeds would be as followed as of (2/9); #1 Genoa-Hugo, #2 Idalia, #3 Stratton, #4 Otis, #5 Arickaree/Woodlin, #6 Lone Star, #7 Hi-Plains, #8 Bethune, #9 Flagler, #10 Deer Trail.  Two pigtails’ games would be played between the #8 vs #9 seeds and #7 vs #10 seeds.  The Quarterfinals could feature some tough matchups with key ones between #4 Otis vs #5 Arickaree/Woodlin, #3 Stratton vs #6 Lone Star.  I do think the top 4 seeds will advance but anything can happen in the Quarterfinals.  I do think that Genoa-Hugo will win the District 5 tournament.  Genoa-Hugo is currently 11-4 and are on a 4-game winning streak.  Genoa-Hugo has 3 games remaining all are winnable but the game against Eads does catch my eye.  Idalia stays as my pick to finish in second place.  Idalia has won 5 straight games including key wins over Fleming, Eads, and Arickaree/Woodlin.  Idalia still must face Stratton and that game could be the difference between a #2 or #3 seed.  Stratton is my pick to finish in 3rd and grab the final automatic spot.  Stratton is 6-7 overall and recently hit a 3 game skid.  They will look to bounce back against Eads on Friday.  Stratton must also face Otis and Idalia to end the year.  Otis is a contender for a top 3 spot in the district.  Otis has played well against the bottom teams but have yet to beat a top 3 team.  The same goes for Arickaree/Woodlin.  If Otis and Arickaree/Woodlin meet then it comes down to the winner needing to upset someone in either the Semifinals or 3rd place game.

RPI for District 5

#13 Genoa-Hugo, #25 Idalia, #28 Stratton, #36 Otis, #39 Arickaree/Woodlin, #49 Lone Star, #54 Hi-Plains, #55 Bethune, #57 Flagler, #63 Deer Trail

District 6

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Sierra Grande

2. Cotopaxi

3. Creede

Contenders:

Moffat

District 6 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete with District 2 & 3 at regionals.  It seems that it is a 3-team race for the 3 automatic spots currently.  Sierra Grande stays as my pick to win the District 6 tournament.  Sierra Grande continues to play well down the stretch beating Cotopaxi on Saturday 64-32 then Moffat 67-36.  Sierra Grande won’t be challenge till 2/17 when they play La Veta and that is a very big RPI game.  Cotopaxi stays as my team to finish in second place.  Cotopaxi was on a two game slide but they broke that slide beating Moffat 51-23.  Cotopaxi will face Custer County tonight but the game to keep an eye on is 2/19 against Creede and could be for the #2 or #3 seed.  Creede is my pick to finish in 3rd place and snag the final automatic spot.  Creede is 8-4 and they also continue to run thru the bottom teams in the District.  On Tuesday they blasted Centennial 71-45.  Creede won’t face Cotopaxi till the final game of the year and could be for a #2 or #3 seed.  Moffat could be a contender but lack of games in 2022 has hurt.  Moffat has 5 games remaining and they should win 3 and if they can get hot in time for Districts, they could possibly challenge for the #3 spot.

RPI for District 6

#2 Sierra Grande, #26 Cotopaxi, #34 Creede, #45 Moffat, #52 Centennial, #56 Antonito

District 7

Automatic Regional Qualifier Predictions:

1. Evangelical Christian

2. Simla

3. Hanover

Contenders:

Pikes Peak Christian

Elbert

District 7 will get 3 teams into regionals and will compete against District 4 and 5 at Regionals.  If all Districts are seeded by RPI the seeds based on todays RPI (2/10) would be; #1 Evangelical Christian, #2 Hanover, #3 Simla, #4 Pikes Peak Christian, #5 Elbert, #6 Kiowa, #7 Miami-Yoder, #8 Cripple Creek, and #9 Colorado D&B.  The #8 vs #9 seeds would play an initial Pigtail game to reach the quarterfinals.  Key matchups in the Quarterfinals could be #4 Pikes Peak Christian vs #5 Elbert and #3 Simla vs #6 Kiowa.  I am sticking with ECA as my District 7 Champion.  ECA has bounced back well since their loss to Sierra Grand winning 6 straight games including a 11-point win over Hanover and 10 point win over Pikes Peak Christian.  ECA still must face Simla and Elbert in league, but they look on pace for the #1 seed in the District Tournament.  Simla stays as my pick to finish in second place.  Simla suffered a tough setback a few weeks ago falling to Hanover in OT but they have bounced back beating Kiowa, Colorado D&B, and Elbert last night.  Simla still has 4 games remaining with the biggest coming on 2/15 against ECA.  Hanover is my pick to finish in 3rd place and snag the final automatic berth.  Hanover continues to play good basketball in 2022 and they did pick up their second loss of the season falling to ECA.  Hanover did bounce back beating Miami-Yoder last night.  Hanover has 4 games remaining with the biggest against Pikes Peak Christian on 2/18.  Pikes Peak Christian looks like they could be a challenger for a top 3 spot.  PPC has battled tough against the 2 of the top 3 teams falling by just 10 to ECA.  Pikes Peak Christian will look to solidify a top 4 seed when they host Elbert tomorrow.  PPC still must face Hanover so their RPI could improve and get closer to the #3 seed.  Elbert is another contender but they look like they will be the #5 seed and on the road in the Quarterfinals against the #4 seed.

RPI for District 7

#1 Evangelical Christian, #14 Hanover, #18 Simla, #23 Pikes Peak Christian, #38 Elbert, #44 Kiowa, #48 Miami-Yoder

District 8 (Only 2 teams make it to Regionals)

Regional Automatic Qualifier Predictions:

1. Belleview Christian

2. Denver Jewish Day

Contenders:

Denver Waldorf

Front Range Baptist

Flatirons Academy

Rocky Mountain Lutheran

Denver Academy of Torah (Unsure about this team played just 3 games and leaving out of my seeding)

District 8 gets just 2 teams into Regionals and will face District 1 at Regionals.  The battle for the 2 spots in this District is going to be very competitive and it has shown in league play with teams beating each other.  If seeded by RPI as of today (2/10) then seeding would be; #1 Belleview Christian, #2 Denver Jewish Day, #3 Flatirons Academy, #4 Denver Waldorf, #5 Front Range Baptist, #6 Rocky Mountain Lutheran, #7 Mile High Academy, #8 Beth Eden.  The Quarterfinals things would be very interesting with huge matchups.  #3 Flatirons Academy vs #6 Rocky Mountain Lutheran and #4 Denver Waldorf vs #5 Front Range Baptist.  I honestly feel who gets hot will get the 2 automatic berths.  I am sticking with Belleview Christian as my District 8 champion.  They have the state champion experience and could be very important in a winner take all District Tournament.  Belleview Christian escaped on a buzzer beater against Flatirons Academy on Tuesday.  Belleview Christian has one final game scheduled against Lyons and will rely on their RPI to hold to snag the #1 seed.  Denver Jewish Day is my pick to finish in second place and get the final automatic spot.  Denver Jewish Day defeated Denver Waldorf 53-52 on Tuesday and could be the final push they need to get the #2 seed.  They have 3 games remaining with a key one against Front Range Baptist on 2/14.  Flatirons Academy, Denver Waldorf, Front Range Baptist, and Rocky Mountain Lutheran have all proven to be contenders and it will come down to who gets hot at the right time.

RPI for District 8

#5 Belleview Christian, #6 Denver Jewish Day, #9 Denver Academy of Torah, #15 Flatirons Academy, #17 Denver Waldorf, #22 Front Range Baptist, #37 Rocky Mountain Lutheran, #43 Mile High Academy, #49 Beth Eden