8man League Breakdown

8-Man Football Playoff Outlook and Playoff Projections Week 10

8-Man Football Playoff Outlook and Playoff Projections Week 10

The final week of the regular season.  It’s most teams last shot to improve their Seed and or push for the playoffs.  Remember you must be ranked in the Top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding and Selection index to get into the playoffs.  I will be limiting my article length due to the longer breakdowns done by Kerry Sherman tomorrow.  Again, I am not cheering against any team just giving my predictions.

Jump to Playoff Projections & Predictions Click Here

League One

1. Dove Creek

2. Mancos

3. Sanford

4. Sargent

5. Dolores

Dove Creek is your League Champion.  Dove Creek wrapped up the league title beating Dolores last week.  Dove Creek sits at #2 in the seeding index, and they travel to face Sargent this week.  My guess is Dove Creek ends up with the #2 seed.  Mancos will finish in 2nd place in League One.  Mancos sits at #3 in the seeding index and are a lock to make the playoffs.  Mancos closed their season last week and have a bye this week.  Mancos will look to rest and get healthy before moving into the playoffs next week.  Sanford is the final team to mention in League One.  Sanford sits at #7 in the seeding index and are a lock to make the playoffs.  Sanford will face Dolores at home to close their season.  Sanford sits in position to host a first round game and will hope to stay in the top 8 and probably opposite side of Haxtun. 

CHSAA Seeding Index: #2 Dove Creek, #3 Mancos, #7 Sanford, #32 Sargent, #38 Dolores

League Champion: Dove Creek

Playoff Locks: Mancos, Sanford

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Sargent, Dolores

League Two

1. Vail Christian

2. Hayden

3. West Grand

4. Rangely

5. Plateau Valley

6. Soroco

Vail Christian is your League Two Champion.  Vail Christian wrapped up the league title beating West Grand 50-36.  Vail Christian now looks to stay inside the top 8 and host a first-round game, Vail Christian currently sits at #8.  Vail Christian will face Rangely this week who is playing much better football.  Hayden finishes in second place in League Two.  Hayden sits at #13 in the seeding index and are on the bubble.  Hayden has a must win this week against Soroco.  A win won’t do much for their numbers, but I believe they will get into the playoffs.  The final team to mention is West Grand.  West Grand currently sits at #15 in the seeding index and would be the second to last team in.  West Grand will face Plateau Valley in their final game and must win this game to have any shot at staying in the top 16.  I will look into West Grand hopes of staying in the top 16 in the Playoff Prediction part. 

CHSAA Seeding Index: #8 Vail Christian, #13 Hayden, #15 West Grand, #26 Rangely, #29 Plateau Valley, #35 Soroco

League Champion: Vail Christian

Playoff Contenders: Hayden, West Grand

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Plateau Valley, Rangely, Soroco

League Three

1. Simla

2. Calhan

3. Elbert

4. St. Mary’s

5. South Park

Simla is your League Three Champions.  Simla locked up the league title when Calhan beat St. Mary’s. Simla sits at #4 in the seeding index and will host a game as long as they beat St. Mary’s this week.  Calhan is the only other team to mention in League Three.  Calhan sits at #19 in the seeding index, and they will face South Park for a second time this week. Calhan must win this game and probably need some help to jump into the top 16.  I will look more in depth at their RPI in the Playoff Predictions part but I am guessing Calhan is going to need win and also need some help to get in to the playoffs.

CHSAA Seeding Index: #4 Simla, #19 Calhan, #24 Elbert, #30 St. Mary’s, #36 South Park

Playoff Locks: Simla

Playoff Contenders: Calhan

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Elbert, St. Mary’s, South Park

League Four

1. Haxtun

2. Akron

3. Merino

4. Sedgwick County

5. Dayspring Christian

6. Caliche

League Four will finally be decided this week when Haxtun travels to face Merino.  Haxtun win the league title outright with a win over Merino.  If Merino upsets Haxtun, then it forces a three-way tie and I believe is broken by RPI or Seeding Index (Let me know if you know).  Haxtun regardless is a lock for the playoffs and a win over Merino gives them the #1 overall seed.  A loss and they could tumble a few spots.  Merino is also a lock to make the playoffs, but they sit at #9 in the Seeding Index.  Merino is hoping to host a first-round game and an upset of Haxtun would do that.  Merino with a loss could still get the #8 spot but my guess is with a loss to Haxtun, Merino will be on the road in the first round.  Akron is also a lock for the playoffs and sit at #5 in the seeding index.  Akron will travel and face Caliche this week.  Akron with a win will probably host a first-round game.  If Akron falls to Caliche hosting could disappear.  Caliche will be playing very desperate.  Caliche sits at #18 in the seeding index, and right now would miss the playoffs.  Caliche is desperate for a win and if they can upset Akron would have a shot to get into the playoffs.  It’s all on the line this week for Caliche.  Dayspring Christian sits at #11 in the seeding index and I almost locked them into the playoffs, but I am curious what happens to their RPI if they are upset by Sedgwick County.  Dayspring Christian locks up a spot in the playoffs if they beat Sedgwick County.  Dayspring Christian will be facing a very desperate Sedgwick County team this week.  Sedgwick County sits at #17 in the seeding index and my guess is they cannot get into the playoffs without a win over Dayspring Christian but will need to dig into their RPI.  Once again all three games in League Four matter and have huge implications on playoff seeding.

CHSAA Seeding Index: #1 Haxtun, #5 Akron, #9 Merino, #11 Dayspring Christian, #17 Sedgwick County, #18 Caliche

Playoff Locks: Haxtun, Akron, Merino

Playoff Contenders: Dayspring Christian, Caliche, Sedgwick County

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: None

League Five

1. Lyons

2. Byers

3. Front Range Christian

4. Belleview Christian

5. Gilpin County

6. Justice

Lyons is your League Five Champions.  Lyons locked up the league championship defeating Front Range Christian 52-16.  Lyons will look to keep a home game in the first round, and they sit at #6 in the seeding index.  Lyons will face Belleview Christian this week.  The other big matchup in League Five is Front Range Christian vs Byers.  The winner of this game has a small outside shot at reaching the playoffs.  The winner probably needs some help but winning at least give a team a shot to make a run.  Front Range Christian sits at #21 and Byers sits at #23.  I am not sure if either can make it and will dive into the RPI. 

CHSAA Seeding Index: #6 Lyons, #21 Front Range Christian, #23 Byers, #28 Belleview Christian, #39 Gilpin County, #41 Justice

League Champion: Lyons

Playoff Contenders: Front Range Christian, Byers

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Belleview Christian, Gilpin County, Justice

League Six

1. Crowley County

2. Fowler

3. John Mall

4. Hoehne

5. Dolores Huerta

6. Custer County

League Six will be decided this week when John Mall hosts Crowley County.  If Crowley County wins, they are your league champion.  If John Mall upset Crowley County, then it would force a three-way tie for first.  (I believe RPI breaks the tie or Seeding Index let me know) Crowley County remains my pick to win League Six and they are hoping to jump into a first-round game.  Crowley County has not been challenged in league but face a desperate John Mall team this week.  John Mall sits at #25 and I believe their only way into the playoffs is the league title.  John Mall will have to play very desperate and stop the run this week.  Fowler is the other team to mention.  Fowler sits at #20 in the seeding index and, they face Dolores Huerta this week.  If Fowler wins then they have a shot at the playoffs.  Fowler may need some help but winning is key for Fowler to have any shot at the playoffs.

CHSAA Seeding Index: #10 Crowley County, #20 Fowler, #25 John Mall, #27 Hoehne, #31 Dolores Huerta, #37 Custer County

League Champion: Crowley County

Playoff Contenders: Fowler, John Mall

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Hoehne, Dolores Huerta, Custer County

League Seven

1. Holly

2. McClave

3. Swink

4. Wiley

5. Springfield

6. Las Animas

League 7 has lived up to the hype of being very competitive and it comes down to this week’s game between Holly and Swink to determine the league title.  Holly can win the league title outright by beating Swink and possibly pushing for a top 10 seed.  Swink on the other hand if they upset Holly, they would force a three-way tie for first unless McClave got beat by Wiley then Swink could win the league title outright.  Holly remains my pick to win the league title.  Holly sits at #12 in the seeding index and a win gives them a shot at a top 10 seed.  Swink sits at #14 in the seeding index, and they are on the bubble.  Swink with a win would lock up a spot but a loss and they could be watching the scoreboard show and hoping the numbers fall their way.  McClave sits at #16 in the seeding index, and they host Wiley in a due or die game.  McClave and Wiley are both desperate for a win.  McClave will be in deep trouble of missing the playoffs if they don’t beat Wiley.  Wiley sits at #22 and they need a key win and probably need some help to get into the playoffs.  League 7 has two very important games to the playoffs and it all comes down to this Friday Night.

CHSAA Seeding Index: #12 Holly, #14 Swink, #16 McClave, #22 Wiley, #33 Las Animas, #34 Springfield

Playoff Contenders: Holly, McClave, Wiley, Swink

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Springfield, Las Animas

Playoff Projections & Predictions

What I have decided to do with 6-Man and 8-Man is combine my predictions and projections article since Kerry Sherman will be covering in more depth the league races.  Remember to qualify for the playoffs you MUST Finish in the Top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding Index or WIN your league title. 

8-Man Playoff Predictions (Who I think make the playoffs)

This is who I think make the playoffs and who win the leagues.  In the 8-Man ranks all league champions are guaranteed a berth.  The rest will be selected by CHSAA Seeding Index.  Seeding is determined by CHSAA Seeding Index.  I am picking my 11 At-Large teams via non-league schedules, remaining schedules, and how I think teams will do.  League Champions are posted first then the At-Large Teams.

https://chsaanow.com/sports/2022/7/20/chsaa-postseason-seeding-index.aspx

(NOT IN ORDER!) (Bold=Teams that have won their League Title)

#1 Dove Creek (League 1)

#2 Vail Christian (League 2)

#3 Simla (League 3)

#4 Haxtun (League 4)

#5 Lyons (League 5)

#6 Crowley County (League 6)

#7 Holly (League 7)

At Large Teams

#8 Mancos (League 1)

#9 Sanford (League 1)

#10 Merino (League 4)

#11 Akron (League 4)

#12 Hayden (League 2)

#13 Dayspring Christian (League 4)

#14 West Grand (League 2)

#15 Swink (League 7)

#16 McClave (League 7)

Bubble Teams

Fowler, Calhan, Sedgwick County, Front Range Christian

I ran thru some numbers for this.  The main questions marks come from League 7.  Holly and Swink are into the playoffs I feel regardless but seeding will be affected by the game.  Hayden and West Grand are also in as long as they defeat their opponents both will be heavily favored in that game.  Dayspring Christian I also believe will get into the playoffs even if they lose.  IF, Sedgwick County upsets Dayspring Christian it could knock a team like McClave out even if McClave beats Wiley.  Sedgwick County and McClave would be extremely close.  I do feel if McClave beats Wiley they will get in just ahead of Calhan and Fowler.  If McClave loses to Wiley, then I believe Wiley could jump in, but all depends on some of the games in front of them.  Games to watch: McClave vs Wiley, Holly vs Swink, Dayspring Christian vs Sedgwick County, Front Range Christian vs Byers.

Seeded Playoff Bracket using my predictions and the CHSAA Seeding Index

#1 Haxtun vs #16 McClave

#8 Vail Christian vs #9 Merino

#4 Simla vs #13 Hayden

#5 Akron vs #12 Holly

#2 Dove Creek vs #15 West Grand

#7 Sanford vs #10 Crowley County

#3 Mancos vs #14 Swink

#6 Lyons vs #11 Dayspring Christian

8-Man Playoff Projections (IF the Season Ended Today)

This is if the season ended today 10/26/2022.  Using the CHSAA Seeding Index I will come up with the Playoff field.  League Champions are still selected with my Predictions.  I will seed & select the bracket with the CHSAA Seeding Index.  Remember this is still early and things will change.  The league champions I selected are at the top with the at-large berths following.

(NOT IN ORDER!) ()=CHSAA Seeding Index

#1 Haxtun (1)

#2 Dove Creek (2)

#3 Simla (4)

#4 Lyons (6)

#5 Vail Christian (8)

#6 Crowley County (10)

#7 Holly (12)

At Large Teams (Selected using 10/26 Seeding Index)

#8 Mancos (3)

#9 Akron (5)

#10 Sanford (7)

#11 Merino (9)

#12 Dayspring Christian (11)

#13 Hayden (13)

#14 Swink (14)

#15 West Grand (15)

#16 McClave (16)

First Four Out

Sedgwick County (17), Caliche (18), Calhan (19), Fowler (20)

Playoff Bracket Seeded using Seeding Index

#1 Haxtun vs #16 McClave

#8 Vail Christian vs #9 Merino

#4 Simla vs #13 Hayden

#5 Akron vs #12 Holly

#2 Dove Creek vs #15 West Grand

#7 Sanford vs #10 Crowley County

#3 Mancos vs #14 Swink

#6 Lyons vs #11 Dayspring Christian