Girls Basketball Class 3A Regional Projections and State Predictions
For my projections I am using the CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index. I am going to be predicting the District Champions and may just give a quick reason as to why I picked each District Champion. If you are a District Champion ranked in the top 16 of the Seeding Index you will automatically host a regional. Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your District.
- District Seeding will be done by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index (50% Maxpreps & 50% RPI). Maxpreps and RPI will run through Districts.
- District Winners (8) advancing to the 32-team state bracket. District Champions are guaranteed a top 8 (host slot) as long as they are in the top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index after Districts.
- Remaining 24 teams are filled in by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts.
- Seeding criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Seed 9-24 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the FIRST ROUND ONLY. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Teams 25-32 may be moved based upon geography and league matchups.
- First two rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in the quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total)
- Teams will not be reseeded prior to the final week-state championship (Final 8)
- Top 8 teams will advance. Class 3A Great 8 will play a modified consolation bracket. Teams losing on Thursday will not advance to Friday.
District Tournament Winners
District Metro/Confluence/Lower Platte: Yuma
Yuma has been the main leader when comparing to the rest of the district. Yuma will be battle tested for the District Tournament. St. Mary’s is the main challenger and a lock for Regionals. Faith Christian would be the last team in at #32. Faith Christian will need a good showing at the District Tournament to hold onto a final spot. Prospect Ridge (36) and Manual (38) sit on the outside looking in and probably need an upset or two to jump into the top 32.
District Frontier: Bennett
One of the weakest District in Class 3A is the Frontier League. Bennett right now would be the only team to make it to regionals and they would not host as they sit at #20. Jefferson is the only team I believe that can challenge Bennett or make it to regionals. Jefferson sits at #34 and will need some help to jump into that final spot.
District IML/SPL: Centauri
The IML/SPL is a bit down this season except for the top teams. Centauri is the favorite to win it all and sit as the #2 team in the seeding index. Ignacio sits at #12 and are a lock for regionals. If they play like early season Ignacio they could even challenge Centauri in the district finals. Crested Butte would make regionals if the season ended today. They still have a few games remaining and winning out could be key to making regionals. Montezuma-Cortez sits at #37 and might need to upset Centauri in the district tournament to make it to regionals.
District Black Forest/Santa Fe: Peyton
Peyton is the heavy favorite to win this district. They have transitioned well from 2A and look to a be force at state. Fountain Valley is also a lock for regionals. They have the #13 seeding index but their lack tough opponents is a concern. Rocky Ford moved into the top 32 last week and hold the #29 spot this week. If they upset Fountain Valley in the district tournament that easily punches their ticket. A loss and they will be sweating things out selection Sunday.
District Patriot: Platte Valley
Platte Valley has still not lost to a 3A team. There are 12-7 with all 7 loses coming to 4A or 5A teams. They will be looking to defender their state championship. Brush, Strasburg, and Highland are all locks for regionals. They will also hope to challenge Platte Valley for the district crown. Liberty Common sits at #24 and is right on the edge of the bubble, I believe they will make regionals but cannot lock them in. Timnath sits at #26 and they are square on the bubble. They will enter Districts as the #6 seed and will face Strasburg. If they upset Strasburg they will lock their spot into regionals if not they will also sweat things out. Estes Park would be the second to last team into regionals at #31 if the season ended today. Estes Park needs some help if they cannot upset their first-round opponent to stay in the top 32.
District Tri-Peaks: C.S Christian
The Tri-Peaks has been a battle with 4 teams still sitting inside the top 10 of the seeding index. C.S Christian, St. Mary’s, Ellicott, and Vanguard are all lock for regionals and the main contenders for the district crown. Buena Vista is also a lock for regionals at #15. Woodland Park (21) and Salida (22) are near locks. Both have a game remaining in the regular season and end the season strong will be key. Banning Lewis is the final team to mention they would be the first team out at #33. Banning Lewis will need to win their final game or make some noise in the district tournament to move on.
District Western Slope: Grand Valley
Grand Valley showed they could be beat granted they were without one of their main starters and I have not heard how long she is out. If only for that game Grand Valley will be the favorite if not look for Olathe and North Fork to challenge again. Grand Valley, Olathe, and North Fork are locks for regionals. Cedaredge (25) and Gunnison (30) are on the bubble and most have a good showing to end the season.
District Mile High/Foothills: SkyView Academy
Currently this district would host a regional but a strong showing to end the year to hold that spot. Skyview Academy sits at #18. Windsor Charter (27) and Dawson School (28) are on the bubble and probably need a visit to the semifinals to help their chances of reaching regionals.
District Champions and Regional Hosts: ()=Seeding Index
District Metro/Confluence/Lower Platte: Yuma (5)
District Frontier: Bennett (20) (Will not host)
District IML/SPL: Centauri (2)
District Black Forest/Santa Fe: Peyton (1)
District Patriot: Platte Valley (7)
District Tri-Peaks: C.S Christian (2)
District Western Slope: Grand Valley (9)
District Mile High/Foothills: SkyView Academy (16)
At Large Host #1: St. Mary’s (4)
Bracket- District matchups will be avoided in the first round. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will not be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!
|*#1 Peyton vs #32 Lyons|
|#16 Buena Vista vs #17 Olathe|
|*#8 SkyView Academy vs #25 Timnath|
|#9 Ellicott vs #24 Liberty Common|
|*#5 Yuma vs #28 Dawson School|
|#12 Highland vs #21 Woodland Park|
|*#4 St. Mary’s vs #29 Rocky Ford|
|#13 Strasburg vs #20 Bennett|
|*#2 Centauri vs #31 Estes Park|
|#15 Fountain Valley vs #18 SkyView Academy|
|*#7 Grand Valley vs #26 Windsor Charter|
|#10 Vanguard vs #23 Crested Butte|
|*#6 Platte Valley vs #27 Cedaredge|
|#11 Brush vs #22 Salida|
|*#3 C.S Christian vs #30 Gunnison|
|#14 Ignacio vs #19 North Fork|
*= Regional Host
My State Qualifier Picks
Here are the 8 teams I think make it to the Elite 8 and the matchups. This will change as the bracket changes.
#1 Peyton vs #9 Ellicott
#4 St. Mary’s vs #5 Yuma
#2 Centauri vs #7 Grand Valley
#6 Platte Valley vs #3 C.S Christian