Boys Basketball Class 1A Regional Projections and State Predictions
For my projections I am using the CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index. I am going to be predicting the District Champions and may just give a quick reason as to why I picked each District Champion. If you are a District Champion ranked in the top 16 of the Seeding Index you will automatically host a regional. Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your District.
I will update this daily so check in daily to see changes. Updated 2/22 @1pm
- District Seeding will be done by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index (50% Maxpreps & 50% RPI). Maxpreps and RPI will run through Districts.
- District Winners (8) advancing to the 32-team state bracket. District Champions are guaranteed a top 8 (host slot) as long as they are in the top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index after Districts.
- Remaining 24 teams are filled in by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts.
- Seeding criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Seed 9-24 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the FIRST ROUND ONLY. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Teams 25-32 may be moved based upon geography and league matchups.
- First two rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in the quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total)
- Teams will not be reseeded prior to the final week-state championship (Final 8)
- Top 8 teams will advance. Class 2A Great 8 will play a Consolation Bracket.
District Tournament Winners
District 1: Dove Creek
Dove Creek appears to be the front runner in District 1. If healthy they are the heavy favorites to land the District crown. Nucla is a bit closer to the bubble at #25. They have a bye to the semifinals in their District Tournament and I believe if they reach the finals, they will make it. De Beque sits at #26 in the seeding index, and they must beat Caprock Academy to avoid dropping out of the top 32. Ouray sits at #32 and would be the last team in. They face North Park in the Play-IN games and this is a must win game. North Park sits at #37 and need a deep district tournament run to get into the top 32.
District 2: McClave
Going to call District 2 the toughest District in 1A. 6 of the 7 teams sit inside the top 16 of the Seeding Index and honestly seeding is going to come down to the final games of the year. McClave remains my pick to win the district. I think Cheyenne Wells, Cheraw, Eads, Wiley, and Granada are all locks to make it to regionals. Kit Carson is on the bubble at #34 and they have been eliminated from the District Tournament. Their only hope is teams in front of them fall behind them with losses as well.
District 3: La Veta
La Veta has inched closer and closer to hosting a regional. They would need to win out to jump into the top 16. La Veta sits at #17 right now. Springfield is another team in contention for regionals. They sit at #23 and are a near lock for regionals. If Springfield reaches the finals of the District Tournament they will go to regionals. The rest of the district is outside the top 38 and the only way they can make it to regionals is by winning the district tournament.
District 4: Fleming
District 4 has been a two horse race for the top seeds and remains between Fleming and Briggsdale. Both teams are locks for regionals it will just be to see who will host a regional and who will be on the road. Longmont Christian, Peetz, and Prairie are all on the bubble. Prairie (30) and Peetz (31) would be into regionals if the season ended today. Longmont Christian would be the first team out at #33. Peetz vs Longmont Christian will be an elimination from regional game and Prairie must beat Weldon Valley to not fall out of the top 32. Big games tomorrow morning in this district.
District 5: Otis
Things have heated up in District 5. I think this is a two-horse race for the district title and I am switching my pick to Otis to win this District. I think Otis is playing some of the best basketball in 1A. Stratton can still win this district and have proven it during the regular season. Arickaree (20) and Idalia (22) are near locks for regionals. If they win their Quarterfinal games today, they will be locks for regionals. Hi-Plains is more on the bubble at #27. They face Idalia in the Quarterfinals if they win, they will get to regionals, but a loss will make them await their fate.
District 6: Sierra Grande
Currently District 6 would not host a regional. Sierra Grande has fallen to #18 and possibly a district title could jump them back to #15 or #16. Sierra Grande and Centennial I believe are locks in regionals, but hosting may be another topic. Sangre De Cristo sits at #28 in the seeding index and their win over Creede was very important. They will face Centennial in the Semifinals and a win would probably lock them into regionals. Moffat is the final team to mention. They sit at #39 and probably need to win the district tournament to get in.
District 7: Genoa-Hugo
Genoa-Hugo is my pick to win District 7. Genoa-Hugo and Pikes Peak Christian are locks for regionals regardless as both sit in the top 16 of the Seeding Index. Kiowa and Hanover are inside the top 36 but need some help to get into the top 32. Hanover is still alive in the district tournament but probably need to upset Pikes Peak Christian to jump inside the top 32. Kiowa I believe is eliminated from regional hope after their loss to Miami-Yoder.
District 8: Belleview Christian
Belleview Christian defeated Denver Jewish Day and remain my pick to win District 8. Belleview Christian will be the heavily favorite going into the post season. Denver Jewish Day, Flatirons Academy and Front Range Baptist are locks for regionals. Denver Academy of Torah sits at #24 and are a near lock for regionals. Denver Waldorf on the other hand is on the bubble at #29. They will be sweating things out after being eliminated from the district tournament.
District Champions and Regional Hosts: ()=Seeding Index
District 1: Dove Creek (12)
District 2: McClave (2)
District 3: La Veta (17) (Will not host)
District 4: Fleming (11)
District 5: Otis (5)
District 6: Sierra Grande (18) (Will not host)
District 7: Genoa-Hugo (10)
District 8: Belleview Christian (1)
At-Large Host: Denver Jewish Day (3)
At-Large Host #2: Stratton (4) (I will seed them below Otis due head-to-head of me picking Otis over them for District title)
First Four Out
Longmont Christian (33), Kit Carson (34), Hanover (35), Kiowa (36)
Bracket- District matchups will be avoided in the first round. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will not be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!
|*#1 Belleview Christian vs #32 Ouray|
|#16 Wiley vs #17 La Veta|
|*#8 Dove Creek vs #25 Denver Academy of Torah|
|#9 Cheyenne Wells vs #24 Nucla|
|*#5 Stratton vs #28 Peetz|
|#12 Cheraw vs #21 Centennial|
|*#4 Otis vs #29 Denver Waldorf|
|#13 Granada vs #20 Arickaree|
|*#2 McClave vs #31 Sangre De Cristo|
|#15 Eads vs #18 Sierra Grande|
|*#7 Fleming vs #26 Hi-Plains|
|#10 Flatirons Academy vs #23 Springfield|
|*#6 Genoa-Hugo vs #27 Prairie|
|#11 Briggsdale vs #22 Idalia|
|*#3 Denver Jewish Day vs #30 De Beque|
|#14 Pikes Peak Christian vs #19 Front Range Baptist|
*= Regional Host
Note: You can move teams for geography considerations. I made a few changes to help with travel. I moved De Beque to face Denver Jewish Day and Sangre De Cristo to face McClave. Those two changes of course did force a few other changes. Prairie would face Genoa-Hugo, Hi-Plains would face Fleming, and Peetz would face Stratton. I made these changes to help with travel.
My State Qualifier Picks
Here are the 8 teams I think make it to the Elite 8 and the matchups. This will change as the bracket changes.
#1 Belleview Christian vs #9 Cheyenne Wells
#4 Otis vs #5 Stratton
#2 McClave vs #7 Fleming
#3 Denver Jewish Day vs #6 Genoa-Hugo