8-Man Football Week 6 Breakdown and Playoff Projections

8-Man Football Week 6 Breakdown and Playoff Projections

This week we move into mainly Playoff Predictions/Projections.  I will look at all the leagues and go thru their team involved in the playoff hunt.  We will be using the recent CHSAA Seeding Index.  I will try and touch upon all teams. 

Arkansas Valley League

Out of the Playoff Race

Springfield, Wiley, McClave

Springfield had a tough season this year going 1-4 and are schedule to play Lyons.  Springfield has 5 seniors on their team and were mainly led on offense by Seniors.  Springfield will have a few holes to fill next season and look for some upcoming Sophomore and Juniors to step up.  Wiley got things going in the right direction this season falling in some close games but picking up a big win over McClave.  Wiley has 6 seniors, but I think this season they got plenty of positives to build off.  McClave had a tough season this year.  The big positive is they have 0 seniors and the team was led mainly by sophomores.  We should see McClave get better next year and make a push for the playoffs within two years.

Playoff Contenders

Crowley County

Crowley County currently sits at #8 in the CHSAA Seeding Index.  Crowley County currently does not have a game schedule so they will hope their numbers will hold up to grab the final playoff spot.  Crowley County currently is .0424 ahead of Simla who does play a game this week.  I am guessing Crowley County is trying to find a game but not 100% sure. 

Holly

Holly currently sits at #10 in the CHSAA Seeding Index.  Holly will face Fowler in their final game of the season and probably need an upset to get into the playoffs.  Holly will benefit regardless from the game but not sure if a loss will be enough to jump Crowley County at #8.  Holly is currently only .0532 behind Crowley County.  I do think if Holly can pull the upset, they will jump into the top 8.

Playoff Locks

Fowler

Fowler sits at #3 in the CHSAA Seeding Index and face Holly in the final game of the season.  A win over Holly should lock up a top 3 seed and avoid Sedgwick County until later I the playoffs.  Fowler if upset by Holly will still get into the playoffs but will drop to were, they will be seeded.  Fowler offensively has been very tough to stop with QB Damian Romero and RB Jackson Bates taking over as leaders.

Central League

Out of the Playoff Race

Elbert, Byers, Lyons, South Park, Denver Christian

The Central League will not get any teams into the playoffs this season.  Elbert won the Central League going 3-0 in league.  Elbert will hope to continue the momentum next season and push for the playoffs next year.  Byers moved out of the Plains league and found some success going 2-3 and should end the year 3-3.  Byers will return QB Dean Kerns next season to help keep the core together.  Lyons played their first year of 8-Man and found some success going 2-3 and will battle Springfield to try and go 3-3.  Lyons will need to replace some key players on offense next season, but I think make some key changes to adapt to 8-Man next year.  South Park had to replace some key pieces from last year and it showed going 1-4.  South Park did get some younger players to step up and should continue to improve next year.  Denver Christian is playing in their second year of 8-Man since re-establishing the program.  Denver Christian did struggle a bit this season and look for them to rebuild and try and improve next season.

Mountain League

Out of the Playoff Race

Norwood, Sargent, Sangre De Cristo

Norwood found some success this year in a very tough Mountain League.  Norwood has 7 seniors and lose some key pieces from their offense.  Norwood will hope some players step up next year as Norwood looks to rebuild their program.  Sargent started the season hot out of the gates, but injuries derailed the season.  Sargent is losing a good senior class and will hope the underclassman will step up and take over progress of a very good program.  Sangre De Cristo is still trying to rebuild the program.  Sangre De Cristo will hope to gets numbers up next year.

Playoff Contenders

Mancos

Mancos is on the bubble sitting at #7 and currently do not have a game scheduled.  Mancos is .09104 ahead of #9 Simla.  Mancos fell last week to Dove Creek in a tough fought game.  Mancos, I think is a near lock but since they are at #7 are technically on the bubble.  Mancos will look to fix the mistakes from the loss and the offense powered by Chase Moore and Ayden Mathews must be ready for the playoffs.

Playoff Locks

Sanford

Sanford is a lock for the playoffs and sits at #2 in the CHSAA Seeding Index.  They do not play this week but should have the #2 or #3 seed locked up.  Sanford has rolled so far this season and gained valuable experience from last year.  Sanford has just 3 seniors but all three are big contributors.  Sanford offensively is led by RB Kelton Gartrell and QB Josh Holman. 

Dove Creek

Dove Creek is a lock for the playoffs.  Dove Creek locked up playoff status beating Mancos last week 18 to 14.  Dove Creek sits at #4 in the CHSAA seeding Index and would host but are .002866 ahead of Rangely.  Dove Creek does not have a game so they will hope their numbers keep a home playoff game in their future.  Dove Creek offensively is a run heavy team and have a three headed monster of Gage Bailey, Gauge Thompson, and Chorbin Cressler.

Northwest league

Out of the Playoff Race

Gilpin County, Vail Christian, West Grand, Soroco, Hayden

West Grand would have been in the Playoff Contenders group due to sitting at #12 but West Grand has cancelled their final game and end with just 3 games.  West Grand will be losing a senior class that did a lot of good for the program and hopefully leads to success for West Grand next year.  Gilpin County sits at #21 and if they were higher up in the Polls they would probably have a shot at the playoffs especially playing Rangely in their final game.  Gilpin County is also losing a very good senior class and 1600 yards of offense will be graduating.  Gilpin County will have some pieces back but will have some rebuilding to do.  Vail Christian lost a good senior class a year ago but bounced back nicely going 2-2.  Vail Christian will have plenty of talent coming back next season.  I believe Vail Christian has just 4 seniors so watch out for Vail Christian next year.  Soroco had a bit of a down season going 0-4 and they will lose 6 seniors.  Soroco will look for some underclassmen to really step up next season to rebuild after a tough year.  Hayden also had a tough season and will lose 8 seniors from this years team.  Hayden will look to rebuild this offseason.

Playoff Contenders

Rangely

I wanted to put Rangely into the locked category but their game against Gilpin County makes things interesting.  Rangely needs to avoid the upset this week against Gilpin County and a win should easily get them into the playoffs.  Rangely has just 4 seniors on the roster with most of their contributions coming on defense.  Rangely offensively is led by a solid group of juniors.  Rangely must focus on Gilpin County and a win could even get them a first round home game.

Plains League

Out of the Playoff Race

Haxtun, Akron, Caliche

Haxtun took a big leap this year and should end the year at 3-3.  Haxtun sits at #16 and with their final game against Caliche I am just not sure if it will be enough to get them into the playoffs.  Haxtun is right on schedule with these sophomore and Juniors playing big minutes this season.  Haxtun will be a huge threat next year.  Akron is having a tough season at 1-4 and are rebuilding a bit this year.  Akron will turn to the upcoming seniors to step up as leaders next year and help get Akron back on track.  Caliche lost a good senior class a year ago and will hope to rebuild and get back on track next season.  Caliche has just 3 seniors and will look to the underclassmen to step up next year.

Playoff Contenders

Merino

Merino sits at #6 in the CHSAA Seeding Index and have a .1421 lead over the #9 team.  Merino is a near lock, but they cannot fall to Akron in their season finale.  Merino played tough against Sedgwick County last week and hopefully will give them some momentum heading into the playoffs.  Merino is led by their rushing attack headed by Trent Elliott and Andrew Frank. 

Dayspring Christian

Dayspring Christian currently sits at #13 in the CHSAA Seeding Index and have just 1 path to get into the playoffs.  Dayspring Christian would have to upset Sedgwick County to have any shot at the playoffs.  Dayspring Christian will try to shock the world in their season Finale.

Playoff Locks

Sedgwick County

Sedgwick County is a lock for the playoffs regardless of the outcome of this weekends game.  Sedgwick County is #1 in the CHSAA Seeding Index and hoping to hold onto the #1 overall seed.  Sedgwick County is led by QB Jared Ehmke and RB Kaleb Fowler.  Sedgwick County is going for the 6-Peat and will be extremely tough in the playoffs against anyone.

Southern League

Out of the Playoff Race

Dolores Huerta, Pikes Peak Christian

Dolores Huerta made huge strides this season to improve.  They will hope the underclassmen can continue to build this program, but Dolores Huerta had probably their best season to date.  Pikes Peak Christian had a very good senior class leave a year ago but still found success this season and should end the year 4-2.  Pikes Peak Christian is at #15 in the CHSAA Seeding Index and their final game against South Park won’t help them enough in the RPI, Maxpreps Poll, and Packard to move up to #8. 

Playoff Contenders

Simla

Simla sits at #9 in the CHSAA Seeding Index.  Simla is .042421 behind Crowley County who is not playing this week.  Simla with a win over Dolores Huerta should improve in the computer Polls (RPI, Maxpreps, and Packard).  The problem with them getting in will be the other team we are about to mention and that is Swink.  Simla must first take care of business against Dolores Huerta though.

Swink

Swink sits at #11 in the CHSAA Seeding Index.  Swink will have a decent shot at catching Crowley County but first have to beat Calhan.  Swink has been a huge surprise this season and their win over Pikes Peak Christian kept them in the mix.  Swink is .17 behind Crowley County but a win over Calhan should improve all their Poll numbers.  Swink will need some help but have a decent shot.

Calhan

Calhan sits at #14 in the CHSAA Seeding Index but have solid numbers in the Maxpreps, Packard, and RPI and an upset of Swink would probably give them a decent shot at jumping into the top 8.  Only way Calhan has a shot though is an upset of Swink in the final game.

Playoff Predictions/Projections

Things are simple now that CHSAA released the CHSAA Seeding Index.  We know they top 8 teams all qualify for the playoffs and this will also be used to seed the bracket.  1 thru 4 in the CHSAA Seeding Index will be home teams and the rest of the matchups will be dictated with the CHSAA Seeding Index, Geography, and Trying to avoid League opponents in the first Round.

Locks for the Playoffs

Sedgwick County, Sanford, Fowler, Dove Creek

Must avoid upset and lock with win

Rangely and Merino

In Top 8 but Fighting off Bubble Teams

Mancos and Crowley County

Bubble Teams

Simla, Holly, Swink, Dayspring Christian, Calhan

Crowley County and Mancos currently do not have a game scheduled and will rely on their numbers holding off the bubble teams.  Crowley County, I think is most in danger especially with Simla, Holly, and Swink all having big games.

Potential Seeding

#1 Sedgwick County

#2 Sanford

#3 Fowler

#4 Rangely

#5 Dove Creek

#6 Merino

#7 Crowley County

#8 Mancos

Note: I flipped Rangely and Dove Creek because I do think if Rangely beats Gilpin County they will jump Dove Creek.  I flipped Mancos and Crowley County due to league matchups.  Travel is my only big concern with Mancos vs Sedgwick County.  But I don’t see any other way of making travel less.

Quarterfinal Matchups (1 thru 4 host):

#1 Sedgwick County vs #8 Mancos

#4 Rangely vs #5 Dove Creek

#2 Sanford vs #7 Crowley County

#3 Fowler vs #6 Merino