6-Man Football Week 6 Breakdown and Playoff Projections
This week we move into mainly Playoff Predictions/Projections. I will look at all the leagues and go thru their team involved in the playoff hunt. We will be using the recent CHSAA Seeding Index. I will try and touch upon all teams.
Central League
Out of the Playoff Race
Kiowa, Hanover, Miami-Yoder, Deer Trail
Kiowa went 1-3 this season but picked up an important win over Deer Trail 53-6. Kiowa has 5 seniors on their roster so should bring back a tough squad next season. Hanover went 2-3 this season. Hanover picked up a very important win over Manzanola 27-25 and a league win over Miami-Yoder 75-39. Hanover will be returning key pieces to their team next season and could be a team to watch next season. Miami-Yoder has one last game against Genoa-Hugo. Miami-Yoder is 1-3 this season with their one victory coming against Cripple Creek. Miami-Yoder has 7 seniors so this could be a team rebuilding next season. Deer Trail is 0-3 this season. Deer Trail played a tough schedule. Deer Trail ends the year against Arickaree/Woodlin. Deer Trail is extremely young with just 2 seniors. Deer Trail should improve in the next two years.
Playoff Contenders
Genoa-Hugo
Genoa-Hugo is sitting at #11 in the CHSAA RPI Index. Genoa-Hugo plays Miami-Yoder this week a game they should win to help improve their record to 4-2. Genoa-Hugo must win to give themselves a shot at the playoffs. The win won’t help their RPI a ton and it will come down to the Computer Polls (Maxpreps & Packard Rating). Genoa-Hugo is .07 behind Briggsdale for the #8 spot.
East League
Out of the Playoff Race
None
Playoff Contenders
Hi-Plains
Hi-Plains did not show up in the CHSAA Seeding Index due to the forfeit they had to Stratton/Liberty. Hi-Plains season rest upon their game with Kit Carson this Friday. If they win they will have a shot at making the playoffs.
Kit Carson
Kit Carson is sitting at #10 in the CHSAA Seeding Index. They are just .05 behind Briggsdale and .09 behind Cheraw at #7. Kit Carson faces Hi-Plains this weekend. Kit Carson must win to have any shot at making the playoffs. Kit Carson will need some help to get into the playoffs. They probably need Briggsdale and Mountain Valley to fall to sneak into the playoffs.
Eads
Eads sits at #6 in the CHSAA Seeding Index. They do not have a game scheduled for this week and have the required game to qualify for the playoffs. Eads will sit and wait to see if their numbers will be enough to hold off the teams behind them. Eads I think will get into the playoffs
Playoff Locks
Cheyenne Wells
Cheyenne Wells sits at #3 in the CHSAA Seeding Index and are a lock for the playoffs. Cheyenne Wells has been a huge surprise this season with a lot of underclassmen stepping up. Cheyenne Wells has also done most of their offensive damage without Cade Mitchek who has not played yet this season. Evan Worely has been the key for Cheyenne Wells young offense. Cheyenne Wells will be a huge threat for the next few seasons.
Stratton/Liberty
Stratton/Liberty sits at #2 in the CHSAA Seeding Index. Stratton/Liberty played the required amount of game to qualify for the playoffs. Stratton/Liberty has not played since October 23rd so they could be a bit rust come playoff time. Stratton/Liberty is a very young team with Sophomores really stepping up this season especially after Jaret Lichety got hurt. Alex Cruz and Charlie Clapper are key for Stratton/Liberty going forward.
North League
Out of the Playoff Race
Peetz
Peetz showed some big improvement this season. Peetz sits at #17 in the CHSAA seeding index which is my I moved them into the out of the playoff race. Peetz will lose a few key seniors from this team but have a solid group of kids returning that should continue Peetz in the right direction.
Playoff Contenders
North Park
North Parks sits at #12 in the CHSAA Seeding Index. North Park will face Briggsdale this weekend and it’s win or go home if your North Park. A win over Briggsdale will give them a shot at the playoffs. North Parks with the upset of Briggsdale will improve in all Polls and will have a shot at jumping into the #8 spot.
Briggsdale
Briggsdale currently sits at just 3 games played and must play this weekend to even qualify for the playoffs. Briggsdale sits at #8 in the CHSAA Seeding Index. They face North Park this weekend and Briggsdale is trying to hold Mountain Valley from jumping them. Briggsdale must beat North Park to have any shot of keeping the #8 spot. Briggsdale will be favored against North Park but will be a tough matchup.
Playoff Locks
Prairie
Prairie is a lock for the playoff granted they don’t get upset by Peetz this weekend. Prairie is 4-1 on the season and have played extremely well this season. Prairie has just 3 seniors on their roster so they will be another team to watch for next season. Prairie will be a real threat in the playoffs this year. Andy Long and Arek Wulf are keys to Prairie making a big push in the playoffs.
Fleming
The defending State Champions are a lock for the playoff and will be poised to defend their state title. We get a dream regular season matchup between Fleming and Granada this weekend and will help both teams regardless of the outcome. Fleming has been challenged just once this season when they faced Prairie. Fleming has 5 seniors, and all are key players, but Fleming does have some sophomore playing big minutes. Fleming will be tested by Granada this weekend and we will get a good look at their defense and offense against a top 5 team.
Northeast league
Out of the Playoff Race
Arickaree/Woodlin, Weldon Valley, Flagler, Otis
Arickaree/Woodlin lost some key pieces from last years team but played well with a young team going 2-3 this season. Arickaree/Woodlin has just 1 senior and should improve next year. Weldon Valley had the most success they had in a few years going 2-2. Weldon Valley will lose 6 seniors but hopefully the success they had this season will power them going forward. Flagler this season was just Flagler and no a coop with Hi-Plains. Flagler had a tough season going 0-3 but lose just 2 seniors. Flagler will be looking to rebuild to how they were before they combined with Hi-Plains. Otis had a tough season going 0-4. Otis is young playing a lot of sophomores so we should see Otis improve over the next two years.
Playoff Contenders
Idalia
Idalia sits at #13 in the CHSAA Seeding Index. Idalia plays one final game against Otis. I am not sure if a win will be enough to push them into the playoffs. I just felt they were still in contention because they are in the top 16. Idalia has 0 seniors and will be a much bigger playoff threat next season. Idalia will look to gain some key momentum heading into next season with a win this weekend.
Southeast League
Out of the Playoff Race
Walsh, Manzanola, Branson/Kim
Walsh is 1-3 currently on the season and play Manzanola this weekend. Walsh graduated a very good senior class and have just 2 seniors on this year’s roster. Walsh played a ton of Freshman and watch out for this team as they get older. Manzanola is 1-4 on the season and as mentioned face Walsh to end the year. Manzanola had a few very close games that could have changed them into playoff contenders but were improved this season. Manzanola has just 3 seniors and return a big play maker at the QB Position. Branson/Kim is 2-3 on the season and face Cheraw in the final game of the season. Branson/Kim did take a small step back after making the playoffs last year but were a young team. Branson/Kim lose just 2 seniors and will be very tough next year.
Playoff Contenders
Cheraw
Cheraw is sitting at #7 in the CHSAA Seeding Index. Cheraw is still on the bubble and are just .07 ahead of Mountain Valley who sits at #9. Cheraw will face Branson/Kim in their final game of the season and is a must win for Cheraw. Cheraw has been a huge surprise this season and led by a young sophomore class. This could be huge experience for a young team if they reach the playoffs.
Playoff Locks
Granada
Granada is a lock for the playoffs. Granada sits at #5 in the CHSAA Seeding Index but their final game against Fleming will help them regardless of the outcome. This is a dream matchup between these two school before we head into the playoffs. Granada is powered by a dynamic QB in Dominic Coleman and Granada is going to be tough for a few years.
Southwest League
Out of the Playoff Race
La Veta, Cotopaxi, Cripple Creek
Cotopaxi took a small step back this season and are 1-3. Cotopaxi lost a very good senior class last year but gained some valuable experience for a young team. They face La Veta in the regular season finale. La Veta has been trying to rebuild their program and will look to take a big win in the finale. Cripple Creek has called off their final game of the season but will hope to take a step in the right direction next season.
Playoff Contenders
Mountain Valley
Mountain Valley sits at #9 in the CHSAA Seeding Index. Mountain Valley will face Sierra Grande in the regular season finale and a win will keep their playoff hopes alive. Mountain Valley only trails Briggsdale by .0289 so a win will give them a good foot forward. Offensively Mountain Valley will have to be able to score points against a very solid offensive team in Sierra Grande.
Sierra Grande
Sierra Grande sits at #14 in the CHSAA Seeding Index. An upset of Mountain Valley is the only shot they have at getting into the playoffs. Sierra Grande with an upset would probably need some help to get in but a win over a 3-0 team will give them a boost in all Polls.
Playoff Predictions/Projections
Things are simple now that CHSAA released the CHSAA Seeding Index. We know they top 8 teams all qualify for the playoffs and this will also be used to seed the bracket. 1 thru 4 in the CHSAA Seeding Index will be home teams and the rest of the matchups will be dictated with the CHSAA Seeding Index, Geography, and Trying to avoid League opponents in the first Round.
Locks for the Playoffs
Fleming, Stratton/Liberty, Cheyenne Wells, Prairie, and Granada
In Top 8 but Fighting off Bubble Teams
Eads, Cheraw, Briggsdale
Bubble Teams
Mountain Valley, Kit Carson, Genoa-Hugo, North Park, Sierra Grande
Eads does not have a game this week so must hope their numbers hold up. I am just going to follow the CHSAA Seeding Index to do the bracket this week. Big games for Cheraw, Briggsdale, Mountain Valley, and Kit Carson could change the bottom 3 seeds.
Potential Seeding
#1 Fleming
#2 Stratton/Liberty
#3 Cheyenne Wells
#4 Prairie
#5 Eads
#6 Granada
#7 Briggsdale
#8 Cheraw
Note: I flipped Eads and Granada for Geography and Briggsdale and Cheraw to avoid a League matchup with Briggsdale and Fleming
Quarterfinal Matchups (1 thru 4 host):
#1 Fleming vs #8 Cheraw
#4 Prairie vs #5 Eads
#2 Stratton/Liberty vs Briggsdale
#3 Cheyenne Wells vs #6 Granada
