Class 3A Girls Basketball Breakdowns

Class 3A Girls Basketball District Predictions Week 11

Picture by Vibrant Valley Photography (Centauri vs Alamosa)

Class 3A Girls Basketball District Predictions Week 11

Final weekend of the regular season for some Leagues/Districts.  5 of the 7 leagues/district have already released their brackets or have begun District Tournament play.  If you want to see the complete brackets go check out Coloradopreps.com Kevin Shaffer has the brackets listed with times, locations, and dates.  Remember in Class 3A Seven District/Leagues qualify two teams automatically into the State Bracket, with the remaining 18 teams determined by RPI.

Confluence/Colorado League

Regional Automatic Qualifier Prediction:

1. DSST-Byers

2. Englewood

District Tournament Contenders: (No Regional Contenders)

DSST-College View

Eagle Ridge Academy

Strive Prep

Fort Lupton

The Confluence/Colorado District will probably only get the 2 Automatic Berths into the Regional Tournament.   DSST-Byers is my pick to win the District with Englewood finishing in second.  Currently no teams sit inside the top 40 of the RPI.  Whoever wins the District and finishes second gets into regionals.   

Confluence/Colorado RPI

#38 DSST-Byers, #46 Englewood, #48 Strive Prep

Frontier League

Regional Automatic Qualifier Prediction:

1. The Academy

2. Denver West

Regional Contenders

Bennett

Arrupe Jesuit

The Frontier League Tournament is seeded and ready to kick off on Saturday.  The Frontier League kicks off with 3 Pigtail Game with the bottom 6 seeds.  My predictions for those games are:

#8 Bruce Randolph over #9 Sheridan

#6 Jefferson over #11 Pinnacle

#7 DSST-Montview over #10 KIPP Collegiate

The 3 winners are all sitting outside the top 40 of the RPI so finishing in the top 2 is key for this league.  The Quarterfinals are Tuesday in this league.  My predictions for the Tuesday games are:

#1 The Academy over #8 Bruce Randolph

#4 Arrupe Jesuit over #5 Middle Park

#3 Bennett over #6 Jefferson

#2 Denver West over #7 DSST-Montview

Teams that need wins in the Quarterfinals are Denver West, Bennet, and Arrupe Jesuit.  Denver West and Bennett both sit on the bubble at #29 and #31 in the RPI.  Both teams need to at least reach the semifinals to help improve their shot at a regional berth.  Arrupe Jesuit sits at #35 in the RPI and may need to finish in the top 2 to try and reach the regional tournament.

Frontier RPI:

#13 The Academy, #29 Denver West, #31 Bennett, #35 Arrupe Jesuit, #50 Middle Park

Intermountain League

Regional Automatic Qualifier Prediction:

1. Centauri

2. Alamosa

Regional Contenders:

Pagosa Springs

Montezuma-Cortez

The Intermountain League Tournament is seeded and kicks off next Tuesday with the Pigtail Game.  I am picking Montezuma-Cortez over Bayfield in the Pigtail game.  The semifinals for the IML are Friday and I will dive into much more depth next week.  Looking at the RPI Centauri and Pagosa Springs look to be in good position to reach regionals.  Alamosa sits at #24 in the RPI and are closer to the bubble.  Alamosa at least needs 1 win in the League Tournament to reach regionals.

Intermountain RPI:

#12 Centauri, #17 Pagosa Springs, #24 Alamosa, #42 Montezuma-Cortez

Metro League

The Metro League Update is completed by Doug Wright. Once again thank you Doug for the update and great insight into the Metro League!

1. Lutheran

2. SkyView Academy

3. Colorado Academy

4. Kent Denver School 

5. Prospect Ridge Academy 

6. Jefferson Academy 

7. Peak to Peak

8. St. Mary’s Academy

9. Faith Christian

10. Manual

11. Stargate School

12. Bishop Machebeuf 

Despite losing several players to graduation in 2021, defending Class 3A runner-up Lutheran (14-5, 11-0 Metro League, RPI 10) once again dominated the Metro League. A recent blowout victory over #2 SkyView Academy validated the Lions’ strength.  Lutheran also is undefeated against Class 3A opponents this year. With a balanced attack and a solid defense, we expect Lutheran to once again make a State playoff run. Lutheran aside, the Metro League remains hugely competitive. SkyView Academy (15-2, 7-1 Metro League, RPI 14) lost big to Lutheran for its only loss in what otherwise was a fine league season, proving that a large gap exists between Lutheran and the rest of the league. The remaining teams in this report are hard to separate as they have wins and losses against each other; we rank them by RPI. Colorado Academy (13-4, 7-2 Metro League, RPI 16) posted losses at Lutheran and at archrival Kent Denver School, but otherwise has cruised through the Metro League.  Building on a big win over rival Colorado Academy, Kent Denver (11-7, 8-2 Metro League, RPI 21) has progressed nicely following a rocky early season and now looks forward to some success in the league and State tournaments. Led by senior Elizabeth Rooks (17.2 PPG, 11.3 RPG), Prospect Ridge Academy (13-5, 7-3 Metro League, RPI 22) could be a sleeper to advance in both the Metro League tournament and in the State Class 3A championship. Jefferson Academy (10-8, 6-4 Metro League, RPI 34) has had an up and down season and now is on the outside looking in for a State tournament berth. The Jaguars will need a couple wins over higher ranked opponents in the Metro League tournament to get back into the State tournament picture. The always competitive girls’ Metro League tournament will have a lot to say about which teams other than Lutheran will have prospects to advance in the State Class 3A tournament. 

My predictions for Metro

League Champion: Lutheran

Regional Automatic Qualifiers: Lutheran & SkyView Academy

At-Large Region/State Contenders: Colorado Academy, Kent Denver, Prospect Ridge Academy, Jefferson Academy 

Patriot League

Regional Automatic Qualifier Prediction:

1. Platte Valley

2. University

Regional Contenders:

Eaton

Resurrection Christian

Highland

Valley

Strasburg

Brush

The Patriot League Tournament has already kicked off with the Pigtail games taking place last night.  #6 Highland defeated #11 Frontier Academy, #7 Valley defeated Sterling, and #8 Strasburg beat #9 Liberty Common.  The 4 winner join the top 5 seeds in the Quarterfinals, and they kick off tonight.  Here are my predictions of the Quarterfinal games:

#1 Platte Valley over #8 Strasburg

#4 Resurrection Christian over #5 Brush

#3 University over #6 Highland

#2 Eaton over #7 Valley

Currently, Platte Valley, University, Eaton, and Resurrection Christian are all in very good shape to reach regionals regardless of the outcome of the tournament.  Highland is close to a lock for regionals but we will see what their RPI does after their game with University tonight.  Strasburg, Valley, and Brush are all sitting on the bubble and may need at least 1 win the league tournament to help get into the regional tournament.  The Semifinals in the Patriot League are Wednesday, and I have some new ideas for next week to make sure I get some predictions out for this league before those games.

Patriot RPI

#1 Platte Valley, #3 University, #6 Eaton, #14 Resurrection Christian, #18 Highland, #25 Strasburg, #26 Valley, #28 Brush

Tri-Peaks League

Regional Automatic Qualifier Prediction:

1. Vanguard

2. St. Mary’s

Regional Contenders:

C.S Christian

Ellicott

Lamar

Manitou Springs

La Junta

Buena Vista

Salida

The Tri-Peaks League Tournament is seeded, and the Pigtail Games kick off Saturday.  4 games take place between the bottom half of the league.  Here are my picks for the Pigtail Games:

#8 Salida over #9 Woodland park

#5 Lamar over #12 James Irwin

#7 La Junta over #10 Manitou Springs

#6 Buena Vista over #11 Banning Lewis

Looking at the RPI for the Tri-Peaks league.  Vanguard, C.S Christian, St. Mary’s, and Ellicott are in very good position to reach the regional tournament regardless of the outcome of the tournament.  Lamar is much more on the bubble at #20 and a win in Pigtail game will help their cause.  Manitou Springs would be one of the last teams in currently at #27.  Manitou Springs will face another bubble team in La Junta in the Pigtail game and winner could keep their hopes alive and loser will be RPI watching and looking for some help.  Buena Vista is at #32 in the RPI and must get the win over Banning Lewis to keep hopes alive for regionals.  Salida is in the same boat as Buena Vista at #36 and need a deep run in the district tournament.

Tri-Peaks RPI:

#2 Vanguard, #4 C.S Christian, #8 St. Mary’s, #9 Ellicott, #20 Lamar, #27 Manitou Springs, #30 La Junta, #32 Buena Vista, #36 Salida

Western Slope

Regional Automatic Qualifier Prediction:

1. Delta

2. Moffat County

Regional Contenders:

Grand Valley

Coal Ridge

North Fork

First, I would like to give a shoutout to CP Martinez.  He has provided me some great insight into the Western Slope League and his information is key to these predictions.  Delta is my pick to win the Western Slope League with Moffat County finishing in second place.  Coal Ridge and Grand Valley are inside the top 20 of the RPI and near locks for Regionals.  North Fork sits at #23 and closer to the bubble so a good showing in the District Tournament may be needed to avoid having their RPI drop.

Western Slope RPI:

#5 Delta, #7 Grand Valley, #11 Coal Ridge, #19 Moffat County, #23 North Fork

Remember if you want to see the complete League/District Brackets go check out Coloradopreps.com