8-Man Football League Predictions and Playoff Projections Week 9

Picture by OTSportsChek (Akron vs Dayspring Christian)

8-Man Football League Predictions and Playoff Projections Week 9

We have completed the first four weeks of the season. A few surprises so far early on. A few surprises teams so far. League will always separate the true playoff contenders. I will continue updating my Predictions weekly. Of course, this is early in the season but with only 1 week left of league play some things are starting to shake out. I will be limiting my article length due to the longer breakdowns done by Kerry Sherman tomorrow. Again, I am not cheering against any team just giving my predictions.

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League One

1. Dove Creek

2. Mancos

3. Sanford

4. Sargent

5. Dolores

League One is nearly wrapped up. Dove Creek just needs one win in their final two games against Dolores or Sargent to win the league title. Dove Creek is also in great position to finish as the #2 seed in the playoffs. Mancos will not win the league title but will hope to keep a top 4 seed when they travel to face Sanford on Friday. Mancos sits at #3 in the seeding index and is a lock for the playoffs. This is their final game of the season. Sanford sits at #6 in the seeding index, and they are hoping to keep a home playoff game. A win will secure a home game a loss will make things much more interesting. Sanford is a lock for the playoffs regardless and they close their season next week against Dolores.

CHSAA Seeding Index: #2 Dove Creek, #3 Mancos, #6 Sanford, #34 Sargent, #40 Dolores

Playoff Locks: Dove Creek, Mancos, Sanford

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Sargent, Dolores

League Two

1. Vail Christian

2. Hayden

3. West Grand

4. Rangely

5. Plateau Valley

6. Soroco

League Two is still not decided but will be this Friday when Vail Christian travels to face West Grand. Vail Christian wins the league outright if they beat West Grand. Vail Christian sits at #9 in the seeding index. A loss and Vail Christian could move much closer to the bubble. West Grand lost to Hayden last week 54-24 and dropped to #15 in the seeding index. West Grand moved closer to the bubble and an upset win over Vail Christian would probably lock them into the playoffs. West Grand with a win over Vail Christian would also force a three-way tie between Hayden, West Grand, and Vail Christian. Hayden greatly improved their playoff fate with the win over West Grand last week. Hayden jumped to #12 in the seeding index and must win their final two games to get into the playoffs. If Hayden loses to Sargent or Soroco in their final two games they would slide out of the top 16.

CHSAA Seeding Index: #9 Vail Christian, #12 Hayden, #15 West Grand, #26 Rangely, #27 Plateau Valley, #36 Soroco

Playoff Contenders: Hayden, West Grand, Vail Christian

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Plateau Valley, Rangely, Soroco

League Three

1. Simla

2. Calhan

3. Elbert

4. St. Mary’s

5. South Park

6. Pikes Peak Christian

League Three is not wrapped up yet but if Calhan beats St. Mary’s this week, then Simla wins League Three. Simla right now is the only team inside the top 16 of the Seeding Index and I have them locked into the playoffs. Simla will face South Park and St. Mary’s to close the season but as I mentioned if Calhan beat St. Mary’s, then Simla wins the league title. Calhan sits at #21 in the seeding index and have not been able to really move up the rankings. Calhan must win out first and then hope for some teams in front of them to lose. Calhan game against St. Mary’s is probably the last game that helps their rankings at all. Elbert is near elimination from the playoff contention, but we will see what their numbers do as they finish up the season. If they don’t move closer to Calhan after this week then I will eliminate them this weekend.

CHSAA Seeding Index: #4 Simla, #21 Calhan, #25 Elbert, #30 St. Mary’s, #31 Pikes Peak Christian, #37 South Park

Playoff Locks: Simla

Playoff Contenders: Calhan, Elbert

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: St. Mary’s, Pikes Peak Christian, South Park

League Four

1. Haxtun

2. Akron

3. Merino

4. Sedgwick County

5. Dayspring Christian

6. Caliche

League Four will not be decided until Haxtun and Merino square off on 10/28. Haxtun remains my pick to win League Four. Haxtun sits at #1 in the seeding index, and I have them locked into the playoffs. Haxtun will face Sedgwick County this week and this could almost be seen as a trap game with the League Championship game on the horizon. Sedgwick County sits at #18 in the seeding index and will be desperate for a win. Sedgwick County needs at least 1 win in their final two games to probably jump back into the top 16. Sedgwick County will face Dayspring Christian next week. Merino sits right behind Haxtun in the standings but face a huge task this week from Akron on the road. Merino with a win or loss still have a shot for the league title next week but a loss to Akron probably costs them a home game in the playoffs without an upset of Haxtun. Merino sits at #8 in the seeding index. Akron sits at #7 in the seeding index and a win over Merino gives them a shot at the league title still. Akron also locks up a playoff spot with a win over Merino. Dayspring Christian sits at #11 in the seeding index and they host Caliche this week. This is a huge game for both teams as they look towards the playoffs. Dayspring Christian can nearly lock up a playoff spot with a win over Caliche. Caliche sits at #17 in the Seeding Index, and they would be the first team out. Caliche needs at least one win in their final two games to get in. Caliche will face Akron next week. Some huge games this week in League Four.

CHSAA Seeding Index: #1 Haxtun, #7 Akron, #8 Merino, #11 Dayspring Christian, #17 Caliche, #18 Sedgwick County

Playoff Locks: Haxtun

Playoff Contenders: Akron, Merino, Caliche, Sedgwick County, Dayspring Christian

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: None

League Five

1. Lyons

2. Byers

3. Front Range Christian

4. Belleview Christian

5. Gilpin County

6. Justice

League Five can be decided this week when Lyons travels to face Front Range Christian. Lyons with a win will secure the league title and the automatic berth. Lyons sits at #5 in the seeding index and I cannot lock them into the playoffs until they win this game because if they lose I am not sure how much they will drop. Front Range Christian sits at #20 in the seeding index. FRC still has a shot at the playoffs if they lose to Lyons but would require some help. We will have to see what FRC Seeding Index looks like after this game. Byers remains in the playoff hunt but must win out. Byers sits at #23 in the Seeding Index but winning out could be enough to push for the last spot. Byers will face Justice this week and then Front Range Christian in the final week of the season.

CHSAA Seeding Index: #5 Lyons, #20 Front Range Christian, #23 Byers, #29 Belleview Christian, #39 Gilpin County, #41 Justice

Playoff Contenders: Lyons, Front Range Christian, Byers

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Belleview Christian, Gilpin County, Justice

League Six

1. Crowley County

2. Fowler

3. John Mall

4. Hoehne

5. Dolores Huerta

6. Custer County

League Six won’t be decided until the final week of the season when Crowley County will face John Mall. Crowley County remains my pick to win League Six. Crowley County will face Hoehne this week. Crowley County is in the hunt for a home game in the playoffs and winning out helps their chances. Crowley County sits at #10 in the seeding index. John Mall continues to keep their playoff hopes and league title hopes alive. John Mall will face Fowler this week and I believe the loser of this game will have their at-large hopes dashed. John Mall sits at #24 in the seeding index. Fowler sits at #22 in the seeding index and a win over John Mall should boost their numbers. Fowler will face Dolores Huerta in their final game. Fowler only hope at the playoffs is beating John Mall this week.

CHSAA Seeding Index: #10 Crowley County, #22 Fowler, #24 John Mall, #28 Hoehne, #33 Dolores Huerta, #38 Custer County

Playoff Contenders: Crowley County, Fowler, John Mall

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Hoehne, Dolores Huerta, Custer County

League Seven

1. Holly

2. McClave

3. Swink

4. Wiley

5. Springfield

6. Las Animas

League 7 looks to be a wild ride to winning the league title. Holly moved into the driver’s seat with a big win over McClave last week. Holly will face Wiley this Thursday and is another big game. Holly sits at #13 in the seeding index and any loss could hurt their hopes at the playoffs. Holly could win the league title this week if Swink loses to Las Animas. Wiley sits at #19 in the Seeding Index and are in danger of missing the playoffs. Wiley will probably need at least one win in their final two games to get into the playoffs. Wiley will face McClave in their final game of the season. Swink keeps their league title and playoff hopes alive if they beat Las Animas this week which they will be heavily favored. Swink will be watching what their Seeding Index does. Swink will face Holly next week and that will be for the league title. Swink sits at #14 in the seeding index. McClave is the final team to mention. McClave fell to Holly last week and they now sit at #16 in the Seeding Index and would be the final team into the playoffs. McClave must win out to get into the playoffs. McClave will face Springfield and Wiley in their final two games, but I believe winning out will give McClave a good shot at the playoffs. I will dive much more into RPI for bubble teams next week.

CHSAA Seeding Index: #13 Holly, #14 Swink, #16 McClave, #19 Wiley, #32 Las Animas, #35 Springfield

Playoff Contenders: Holly, McClave, Wiley, Swink

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Springfield, Las Animas

Playoff Projections & Predictions

What I have decided to do with 6-Man and 8-Man is combine my predictions and projections article since Kerry Sherman will be covering in more depth the league races. Remember to qualify for the playoffs you MUST Finish in the Top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding Index or WIN your league title.

8-Man Playoff Predictions (Who I think make the playoffs)

This is who I think make the playoffs and who win the leagues. In the 8-Man ranks all league champions are guaranteed a berth. The rest will be selected by CHSAA Seeding Index. Seeding is determined by CHSAA Seeding Index. I am picking my 11 At-Large teams via non-league schedules, remaining schedules, and how I think teams will do. League Champions are posted first then the At-Large Teams.

https://chsaanow.com/sports/2022/7/20/chsaa-postseason-seeding-index.aspx

(NOT IN ORDER!) (Bold=Teams that have won their League Title)

#1 Dove Creek (League 1)

#2 Vail Christian (League 2)

#3 Simla (League 3)

#4 Haxtun (League 4)

#5 Lyons (League 5)

#6 Crowley County (League 6)

#7 Holly (League 7)

At Large Teams

#8 Mancos (League 1)

#9 Sanford (League 1)

#10 Merino (League 4)

#11 Akron (League 4)

#12 Hayden (League 2)

#13 Dayspring Christian (League 4)

#14 McClave (League 7)

#15 West Grand (League 2)

#16 McClave (League 7)

Bubble Teams

Calhan, Front Range Christian, Byers, Fowler, John Mall, Wiley, Caliche, Sedgwick County

I ran thru some numbers for this. Things are going to be very tight for the final few playoffs’ spots. All it takes is an upset or two and things will be very different. I believe #11 thru #20 are still open but some windows will be shut after this weekend’s games. I will be very interested in the RPI Sunday and then of course the Seeding Index Monday.

Seeded Playoff Bracket using my predictions and the CHSAA Seeding Index

#1 Haxtun vs #16 McClave

#8 Merino vs #9 Vail Christian

#4 Simla vs #13 Holly

#5 Lyons vs #12 Hayden

#2 Dove Creek vs #15 West Grand

#7 Akron vs #10 Crowley County

#3 Mancos vs #14 Swink

#6 Sanford vs #11 Dayspring Christian

6-Man Playoff Projections (IF the Season Ended Today)

This is if the season ended today 10/19/2022. Using the CHSAA Seeding Index I will come up with the Playoff field. League Champions are still selected with my Predictions. I will seed & select the bracket with the CHSAA Seeding Index. Remember this is still early and things will change. The league champions I selected are at the top with the at-large berths following.

(NOT IN ORDER!) ()=CHSAA Seeding Index

#1 Haxtun (1)

#2 Dove Creek (2)

#3 Simla (4)

#4 Lyons (5)

#5 Vail Christian (9)

#6 Crowley County (10)

#7 Holly (13)

At Large Teams (Selected using 10/19 Seeding Index)

#8 Mancos (3)

#9 Sanford (6)

#10 Akron (7)