6-Man Football Week 8 League Breakdown
Just 2 games left in the 6-man regular season and things are starting to get interesting. This week and next week I start really crunching RPI numbers and have a few things for teams on the bubble. I will share for each league. A quick note about my RPI numbers I came up with, First I am using the current OOWP which will change heading into next week. This number is way to complicated to calculate which is why I give it a range due to the change. Last year I used this same technique and was close to the final RPI numbers. I was able to predict the Top 16 team last year using this technique, so it does work.
Deer Trail is your Central League Champion. They are probably the quietest 5-1 team in 6-man. Deer Trail lone loss of the season is to Branson/Kim, but Deer Trail does lack the quality win to really put them on the map. Genoa-Hugo is sitting in second with Hanover sitting in third. In the Central league there are a few games with Deer Trail vs Colorado D&B and Edison vs Genoa-Hugo. Hanover has a non-league game against Eads which is big for the RPI. Deer Trail may or may not play their game against Colorado D&B. Genoa-Hugo vs Edison is massive for both teams. Both teams are in the hunt and I think the loser will be out with the winner having a shot at the playoffs.
Looking at the RPI Deer Trail has the automatic berth into the playoffs. If Deer Trail wins both games their RPI will be around .541 thru .536 which puts them around the #12 thru #14 spot. This is a bit of a drop due to their final opponents not helping Deer Trails RPI much. Hanover is in a must win scenario for their final two games. Hanover cannot get into the playoffs if they drop one of their final two games. If Hanover wins both games their RPI number is around .4804 thru .4810 which puts them around the #15 thru #17 spot. Genoa-Hugo must also win their final two games to have any shot. Genoa-Hugo cannot get into the playoffs dropping one of their final two. If Genoa-Hugo wins their final two games, they still may need some help like Otis winning out. Genoa-Hugo still has a wide spread of .4613 thru .4710 just depends on some of the other results they range from #16 thru #19. We will know more after this week. Edison and Colorado D&B are eliminated from the playoff hunt.
Playoff Contenders: Deer Trail, Genoa-Hugo, Hanover
RPI: Deer Trail (10), Hanover (22), Genoa-Hugo (24), Edison (26), Colorado D&B (29)
East Central League
Flagler/Hi Plains and Stratton/Liberty won’t face off till next week and that is when the league title will be decided. Flagler/HI Plains this week has a non-league game against Weldon Valley and won’t affect the league standings. Stratton/Liberty play a league game against Arickaree/Woodlin but will be heavily favored in that game. The game to watch in the East Central league is Idalia vs Otis. This is a make it or break it game for both teams. The winner has a much better shot at he playoffs with the loser needing some help. We will go into more depth on the RPI.
Stratton/Liberty and Flagler/Hi Plains are near locks for the playoffs. We will go much more in depth on their RPI numbers next week and the potential seeds they could have. I ran through a couple scenarios for Arickaree/Woodlin. 1 scenario is Arickaree/Woodlin is losing to Stratton/Liberty and beating Otis. This scenario puts Arickaree/Woodlin RPI number around .5013 thru .5020 which has them around the #14 thru #16 spot. My other scenario is Arickaree/Woodlin losing both of their final games which has their RPI number around .4722 thru .4730. This has them in the #16 thru #19 spot. Idalia has three different scenarios for them. The first scenario is winning both of their final two games. This scenario puts them around the .4922 thru .4930 which is around the #15 & #16 spot. The second scenario is losing 1 of their final games and winning the other which has their RPI number around .462 thru .468 which would have them around #16 thru #19. The third scenario is losing both games which will have them miss the playoff. Otis has just 1 scenario that can get them into the playoffs. Otis must win their final two games to get into the playoffs and possibly still need a bit of help. If Otis wins their final two games their RPI number will be around .4730 thru .4740 which is right around the #16 spot. Losing any games will eliminate them.
Playoff Contenders: Stratton/Liberty, Flagler/Hi Plains, Idalia, Arickaree/Woodlin, Otis
RPI: Stratton/Liberty (2), Flagler/Hi Plains (7), Arickaree/Woodlin (15), Idalia (16), Otis (20),
Fleming continues to lead the North League. Fleming picked up an important 36-12 victory over North Park to nearly seal the deal on the North League title. Fleming has one game left in their way and it’s a big one against Briggsdale. Briggsdale is on a 4-game winning streak and picked up a high scoring win over Otis last week 76-56. This week Briggsdale offense will be really tested by a very good Fleming defense. Briggsdale will need QB Tyler Blickem and RB Malik Carlson to have break out games. Defensively Briggsdale must not allow the huge plays and need to buckle it down. I really think Briggsdale will need their offense to carry them to the win. Fleming is just 1 win away from a league title. Defensively this team has played great defense allowing at or above 20 points just once this season. Fleming defensively has proven they can stop anyone. This week they will face a very good passing attack and Fleming secondary will be tested. Offensively look for QB Kade Comstock and RB Brandon Williams to have big games and this offense could have a huge day. If Briggsdale win they force a tie atop the league standing but if Fleming wins, they have the league title outright. One other game to mention in the North League is Peetz at Prairie. Prairie needs the win to stay in second place and if Fleming is upset possibly a tie for first. Prairie has been dominating at times this season and look for their offense to be explosive against Peetz. This is Peetz final game of the season and a win would put them into the playoffs. A loss will put their fate into the hands of the RPI and we cover both scenarios in the next section.
Fleming, Prairie, and North Park will be discussed much more in-depth next week. For Briggsdale we ran thru two scenarios. One is a loss to Fleming and win against North Park and the other is two losses to end the year. If Briggsdale splits the final two games their RPI ends up around .5805 and .5815 which is around #8 thru #9 spot. If Briggsdale losses both games their RPI ends up around .5521 thru .5526 which puts them around #11 thru #13 spot. Briggsdale is a lock for the playoffs just the seeding is key. Peetz is still alive for the playoffs. They have 1 game left and must win to have a shot at the playoffs. A win puts their RPI number around .5037 thru .5045 which is around the #13 thru #15 spot. A loss for Peetz puts their RPI number around .4676 thru .4685 which is around the #18 thru #20 spot and out of the playoffs. Weldon Valley is out of the playoff hunt.
Playoff Contenders: Fleming, Prairie, North Park, Briggsdale, Peetz
RPI: Fleming (5), Prairie (6), North Park (9), Briggsdale (12), Peetz (17), Weldon Valley (28)
South Central League
Your South-Central League Champion is Branson/Kim. Branson/Kim has one game remaining next week against Mountain Valley and is big for them for seeding purposes. Manzanola lost a tough one against Mountain Valley and now will need to win their final two games and get some help to get into the playoffs. La Veta and Primero are eliminated from the playoff hunt unless Primero pulls two straight upsets but even then, will need some help.
We will go into much more depth of the possible seed for Branson/Kim next week. Manzanola on the other hand needs a lot to go their way. The only way Manzanola gets into the playoffs is winning out. Manzanola would then also need a bit of help as well. If Manzanola wins out their RPI number is .4713 thru .4720. This puts them around the #16 thru #18 spot. Primero and La Veta are eliminated from the playoff hunt.
Playoff Contenders: Branson/Kim and Manzanola
RPI: Branson/Kim (3), Manzanola (23), Primero (25), La Veta (27)
South East League
One team sits atop the South East League standings and that is Kit Carson. Kit Carson can lock up the league title this week if they beat Granada. Granada is coming off their second loss of the season to Stratton/Liberty. Granada played tough against Stratton/Liberty but in the end couldn’t stay close enough. Granada now must quickly regroup and try and force a tie for the league title. Granada must have a big day from QB Dominic Coleman. Defensively they will have to find a way to contain the speed of Kit Carson. Kit Carson can win the league outright with a win and this is also the final game of the regular season for Kit Carson. A win will give Kit Carson the #1 overall seed and the path to the state championship goes through Kit Carson. Kit Carson defensively will focus on the dual threat QB of Granada. Offensively look for Jayden Mccombs-Farmer to have a break out game along with RB Joe Bryan and QB Sullivan Farmer. I see Kit Carson snagging the League title. The other league game in the South East league is Cheyenne Wells vs Cheraw. Cheraw will be desperate for a win and will need to win 1 of their final two games to get into the playoffs. Cheraw with an upset of Cheyenne Wells will be in good shape. Cheyenne Wells is hoping to lock up a top 6 seed for the playoffs and a win over Cheraw should help them do that. This is the final game for Cheyenne Wells.
We will go into more depth on Kit Carson, Cheyenne Wells, and Granada potential seed next week. Eads is in pretty good shape when it comes to the RPI. We ran thru 3 different scenarios for Eads. The first was Eads winning their final two games which put their RPI number around .5770-.5778 which is around #10 spot. The next scenario is Eads going 1 and 1 in their final games. That would put their RPI number around .5430 thru .5437 which is still around #10 thru #12 spot. The final scenario is Eads losing both games which puts their RPI number around .5082 thru .5087 which puts them in a bit more trouble around #14 thru #16 spot. Walsh has 1 game remaining and we ran thru if they won and if they lost. If Walsh win their final game their RPI number is around .5220 thru .5225 which is around #13 thru #14 spot. A loss for Walsh makes things much more interesting. Walsh with a loss has an RPI number of .4900 thru .4908 which is on the bubble around the #15 thru #16 spot. Cheraw has three different scenarios, but I didn’t run them winning both of their final two games due to that getting them into the playoffs. If Cheraw losses to Cheyenne Wells but beats Eads, their RPI number is around .5092 thru .5100 which puts them around the #13 thru #15 spots. If Cheraw losses both games, they will need some help to get into the playoffs their RPI number would be .4785 thru .4795 which puts them around the #16 thru #18 spots.
Playoff Contenders: Kit Carson, Cheyenne Wells, Granada, Walsh, Cheraw, Eads
RPI: Kit Carson (1), Cheyenne Wells (4), Granada (8), Eads (11), Walsh (14), Cheraw (19)
South West league
The Southwest League title belongs to Cotopaxi. Cotopaxi locked up the league title with a 46-14 win over Sierra Grande. Cotopaxi finishes the season with a game against Primero and then hits the road to Prairie which is a big game for seeding. Mountain Valley sits in second place in league. Mountain Valley picked up an important win over Manzanola. Mountain Valley plays Cripple Creek this week and end the year against Branson/Kim which is another key game for the RPI. Sierra Grande ends their season this week with a game against North Park. Sierra Grande will need an upset to get into the playoffs. I do not think a loss to North Park get them in, but we run thru the numbers.
Cotopaxi get the automatic berth into the playoffs. Cotopaxi will need to upset Prairie in the final week of the season to host a playoff game and more than likely they will be on the road. Cotopaxi with a loss to Prairie will have an RPI number around .515 thru .522 which puts them around the #12 thru #14 spot. Mountain Valley has two scenarios for them. Mountain Valley wins out beating Cripple Creek and Branson/Kim and their RPI number is around .5224 thru .5230 which puts them around the #12 thru #14 spot. The other scenario for Mountain Valley is beating Cripple Creek and losing to Branson/Kim. This scenario has Mountain Valley RPI number around .4849 thru .4860 which is in the #15 thru #17 spot. Sierra Grande even with the upset of North Park would have an RPI number of .4698 thru .4705 which is around #16 thru #18 but they are going to need help even with the upset to jump let’s say Mountain Valley. Cripple Creek is eliminated form the playoff chase.
Playoff Contenders: Cotopaxi, Mountain Valley, Sierra Grande
RPI: Cotopaxi (13), Mountain Valley (18), Sierra Grande (21), Cripple Creek (30)