Class 1A Football Week 5 Playoff Predictions
This week we move into mainly Playoff Predictions/Projections. I will look at all the leagues and go thru their team involved in the playoff hunt. We have updated Polls for all 4 Rankings involved in the CHSAA Seeding Index.
3 teams remain in the playoff hunt in the Foothills league, but I think things really are narrowed down to 1 team inside the Foothills. We will look at all 4 teams that have a shot in the Foothills.
Strasburg is the one team I have as a lock to make the playoffs inside the Foothills league. Strasburg plays Jefferson and Pinnacle in the final two games and should cruise to wins in both games. Strasburg RPI may fall from those games, but they are locks for the playoffs and could be the only team in the Foothills to make the playoffs.
Platte Canyon like the next 3 teams that will be mentioned are right on the edge of being eliminated from the playoff hunt. Platte Canyon plays a massive game against Bennett this week with the winner keeping their hopes alive and the loser being eliminated.
Bennett came into the season with big expectations and are now on the verge of being eliminated from the playoff hunt. Bennett plays must win games against Platte Canyon and Prospect Ridge next week. Bennett sits in the top 16 in most of the polls so things are still in decent shape, but any losses will eliminate them from the playoff hunt.
The North Central has been a very tough league and I think you must consider 6 of the 7 teams in the playoff chase. Burlington is the only team eliminated from the playoff hunt but we will look at all the team involved.
Limon had to cancel their game against Wray this week and could possibly be in jeopardy of canceling their next game but that is still to be determined. Limon in my eyes is a lock for the playoffs. We will keep an eye on if Limon plays next week or not.
Wray was supposed to play Limon this week and when that game was canceled Wray was hoping to pick up another game and they did. Wray will face 2A Platte Valley this week and that game will benefit both teams. Wray is another team I think is a near lock for the playoffs. Wray still must face Yuma next week but I like their chances to lock up a spot.
Holyoke picked up a Forfeit this week as Pinnacle did not have enough players to play this week. Holyoke plays Limon next week and this will be a huge game. Holyoke sits at #8 in the RPI, #3 in the Packard, #8 in the Coaches Poll, and #4 in the Maxpreps Poll. Holyoke is in a good spot to make the playoffs but we will need to wait and see what the polls look like next week before their huge game against Limon.
Highland started the year off at 0-2 but have bounce back nicely and have kept their name in the playoff hunt discussion. Highland end the year with games against Burlington and Wiggins and both are must win games. Highland sits in a decent spot in all the polls but will be playing playoff Football from here to the end of the season. Highland sits at #10 in the RPI, #4 in the Packard Poll, #10 in the Coaches Poll, and #8 in the Maxpreps Poll.
Yuma has one path to get into the playoffs and that is beat Wiggins and Wray in the final two weeks. Yuma is sitting outside the top 10 right now and will need wins in the final two games.
Wiggins is in a similar boat and the winner between them and Yuma this week keeps their playoff hopes alive. Wiggins end the year with Highland. It’s wins or your done for Wiggins for the rest of the year.
Just 2 teams are in the hunt for the playoffs in the Southern Peaks League. I thought about including Ignacio, but they are not even in the top 16 in most of the polls and that is enough for me to eliminate them even if they upset Monte Vista this week.
Centauri will face Woodland Park this week. Centauri in their first big test moved past Igancio easily. Centauri I think is heavily favored in this game especially after Woodland Park got upset by Moffat County last week. Centauri though will get a good look at a quality opponent this week. They play Monte Vista in the final week and that will be a huge game for both teams.
Monte Vista is just holding hope to make a run for a playoff spot. Both Monte Vista and Centauri have been hampered by a real week league and shows in their numbers. Monte Vista plays Ignacio this week and will be a game that will help their numbers in the polls if they avoid the upset. Monte Vista though will need to win this week’s game against Ignacio and then try and upset Centauri in the final game of the season to give themselves a shot at the playoffs.
3 teams are in the hunt in the Tri-Peaks league. Florence, C.S Christian, and Peyton all have a shot at making the playoffs and we will look at all 3 teams.
Florence is a near lock for the playoffs but their game against C.S Christian will decide a ton. Florence though I think has a real good shot at making the playoff regardless of what happens in that game. Florence end the year against Trinidad which won’t help their RPI numbers.
C.S Christian is not a lock but definitely in a good position to make the playoffs. C.S Christian plays Florence this week and Peyton in the final week of the season. C.S Christian can probably still get in with a loss to Florence but cannot lose to Peyton in the final week. I really think we will have to watch and see what the Polls do if C.S Christian loses to Florence. C.S Christian sits at #9 in the RPI, #7 in the Packard, #9 in the Coaches, and #9 in the Maxpreps Poll.
Peyton, I think has just 1 path into the playoffs and that is winning their final two games. I think Peyton gets by Rocky Ford this week, but their final game of the season is against C.S Christian and will be for their playoff lives. Peyton will also need some help from previous opponents but they must take care of business by winning their final 2 games.
I really think the Western Slope has just 2 teams left in the playoff hunt and they are Hotchkiss and Meeker. Gunnison and Cedaredge would need a lot to go their way including upsetting Hotchkiss. If that can happen then I will re-add them to this list.
Hotchkiss picked up the important head to head win over Meeker. Hotchkiss now must avoid any upsets in the final two weeks and should have a good shot at getting into the playoffs. Hotchkiss plays Gunnison and Cedaredge in their final two games and both of those teams are looking to pull off an upset. Hotchkiss is not a lock yet because of their numbers but they are a near lock and I think a win over Gunnison should lock them up. Hotchkiss sits at #6 in the RPI, #10 in the Packard, #6 in the Coaches, and #6 in the Maxpreps Poll.
Meeker is also in the playoff hunt but cannot lose either of their final two games against Olathe and Paonia. The Olathe game will be important for numbers and then Meeker will be hoping Moffat County can go on a big run to help their RPI and Poll numbers. Meeker though is sitting in solid position to make the playoffs. Meeker sits at #2 in the RPI, #9 in the Packard Poll, #7 in the Coaches Poll, and #7 in the Maxpreps Poll. Meeker as long as they take care of business is a near lock for the playoffs.
After going league by league, we look at the playoff projections/predictions.
Near Locks can lock up with a win this week
Near Locks but big games still loom
Centauri, Hotchkiss, Meeker, Wray
Holyoke, C.S Christian, Highland, Monte Vista, Bennett, Yuma, Wiggins, Peyton
So, I have separated teams into 4 categories. I think Strasburg and Limon are locks to get into the playoffs. I cannot lock up Florence, Hotchkiss, or Meeker just yet. Winner of the Florence vs C.S Christian game will be moved into the lock category. I really think we are down to just 15 teams in the playoff hunt which is still high and after this week we could see the field narrow.
Note: Centauri, C.S Christian, and Highland are all very close for that final spot.
#1 Limon vs #8 Centauri
#4 Florence vs #5 Holyoke
#2 Wray vs #7 Meeker
#3 Strasburg vs #6 Hotchkiss