Girls Basketball Class 3A Regional Projections and State Predictions
For my projections I am using the CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index. I am going to be predicting the District Champions and may just give a quick reason as to why I picked each District Champion. If you are a District Champion ranked in the top 16 of the Seeding Index you will automatically host a regional. Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your District.
- District Seeding will be done by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index (50% Maxpreps & 50% RPI). Maxpreps and RPI will run through Districts.
- District Winners (8) advancing to the 32-team state bracket. District Champions are guaranteed a top 8 (host slot) as long as they are in the top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index after Districts.
- Remaining 24 teams are filled in by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts.
- Seeding criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Seed 9-24 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the FIRST ROUND ONLY. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Teams 25-32 may be moved based upon geography and league matchups.
- First two rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in the quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total)
- Teams will not be reseeded prior to the final week-state championship (Final 8)
- Top 8 teams will advance. Class 3A Great 8 will play a modified consolation bracket. Teams losing on Thursday will not advance to Friday.
District Tournament Winners
District Metro/Confluence/Lower Platte: Yuma
Yuma continues to be the leader in this District. They continue to improve their seeding index and are in position for a top 4 seed. St. Mary’s Academy and Faith Christian look to push for a regional spot but I don’t see a huge challenge for Yuma for the District crown.
District Frontier: Bennett
The Frontier District is the weakest District in Class 3A. Bennett is the only team in the top 32 currently and they are fighting to get into the top 16 to host a regional. Currently they sit outside the top 16 and winning out and getting some help is key. Jefferson is on outside looking in but are in position.
District IML/SPL: Centauri
Centauri has been the front runner since the beginning and I don’t see that changing. Ignacio early on looked to really challenge but they have fallen back a bit. I do think Ignacio could challenge Ignacio but must get back to their early season form.
District Black Forest/Santa Fe: Peyton
Just 4 teams in this District. Peyton is the clear cut favorite to win this district. We will find out this weekend just how good Fountain Valley is when they face Vanguard. Peyton already defeated Fountain Valley earlier in the year.
District Patriot: Platte Valley
Platte Valley remain my pick to win the district. Platte Valley has 7 losses this season, none are to a 3A team. Until a 3A opponent can step up they remain my pick to win this District.
District Tri-Peaks: C.S Christian
The toughest District in Class 3A is the Tri-Peaks. 4 teams sit inside the top 12 and 8 teams are in position to reach regionals. C.S Christian remain my pick to win the district but Ellicott, St. Mary’s, and Vanguard all will challenge for the top spot.
District Western Slope: Grand Valley
Grand Valley has won 12 straight games since starting 0-3. They have looked like the team that reached the Elite 8 last season. They are my pick to win the District. Olathe and North Fork appear to be the main challengers.
District Mile High/Foothills: SkyView Academy
This District is still up for grabs and SkyView Academy, Dawson School, Windsor Charter, and Lyons all appear to challenge for that Crown. The same schools are all in the hunt for regionals as well.
District Champions and Regional Hosts: ()=Seeding Index
District Metro/Confluence/Lower Platte: Yuma (4)
District Frontier: Bennett (20) (Will not host)
District IML/SPL: Centauri (3)
District Black Forest/Santa Fe: Peyton (1)
District Patriot: Platte Valley (7)
District Tri-Peaks: C.S Christian (2)
District Western Slope: Grand Valley (9)
District Mile High/Foothills: SkyView Academy (17) (Will not host)
At Large Host #1: St. Mary’s (5)
At Large Host #2: Ellicott (6)
Bracket- District matchups will be avoided in the first round. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will not be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!
|*#1 Peyton vs #32 Timnath|
|#16 Olathe vs #17 SkyView Academy|
|*#8 Grand Valley vs #25 Cedaredge|
|#9 Vanguard vs #24 North Fork|
|*#5 St. Mary’s vs #28 Faith Christian|
|#12 Highland vs #21 Liberty Common|
|*#4 Yuma vs #29 Lyons|
|#13 Strasburg vs #20 Bennett|
|*#2 C.S Christian vs #31 Jefferson|
|#15 Buena Vista vs #18 Woodland Park|
|*#7 Platte Valley vs #26 Estes Park|
|#10 Brush vs #23 Crested Butte|
|*#6 Ellicott vs #27 Dawson School|
|#11 Fountain Valley vs #22 Salida|
|*#3 Centauri vs #30 Windsor Charter|
|#14 Ignacio vs #19 St. Mary’s Academy|
*= Regional Host
My State Qualifier Picks
Here are the 8 teams I think make it to the Elite 8 and the matchups. This will change as the bracket changes.
#1 Peyton vs #8 Grand Valley
#4 Yuma vs #5 St. Mary’s
#2 C.S Christian vs #7 Platte Valley
#3 Centauri vs #6 Ellicott