Girls Basketball Class 1A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 9

Girls Basketball Class 1A Regional Projections & Bubble Watch Week 9

Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your League (If you have 5 or more teams). This week we breakdown the race to host plus the teams sitting on the bubble. We will do this for every class. At the end I pick the 8 teams I think make it to state based on my projections At the end I pick the 8 teams I think make it to state based on my projections.

Updated 2/11 2pm (When I pulled the Seeding Index)

*This article is Sponsored By: Gordon Insurance Agency, Inc. Quality hometown service is our specialty! 5 Locations in Colorado to serve you! For all your insurance needs visit their website at* https://www.gordonins.com/

Class 1A

League Champions earn an automatic berth in the playoffs as long as they win their league outright. Each league must have a minimum of 5 teams in it for an automatic berth.
Seeding Criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after the regular season. Seeds 9-16 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the First Round Only. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Seeds 17-32 may be moved up to two spots based upon geography & League matchups.
First Two Rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in that quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total).
Top 8 teams will advance through the bracket. The bracket Will Not be reseeded before State. Class 1A Great 8 will play a full consolation bracket.

League Champion Predictions

3A/2A/1A San Juan League: Nucla

3A/2A/1A Mile High League: 2A Team Wins (Heritage Christian)

2A/1A Western Slope League: 2A Team Wins (Rangely)

2A/1A West Central: 2A Team Wins (Custer County, Will not get an automatic berth)

2A/1A Union Pacific League: Stratton

1A YWKC League: Idalia

1A Southern Peaks: Creede

1A North Central: Fleming

2A/1A Lower Platte: 2A Team Wins (Merino)

1A High Plains: McClave

1A Fisher Peaks: La Veta (Will not get an automatic berth)

1A Black Forrest: Evangelical Christian

1A Ark Valley: Springfield

5280 League: Denver Jewish Day

Top 8 Seeds (Regional Hosts)

#1 McClave

#2 Eads

#3 Evangelical Christian

#4 Nucla

#5 Fleming

#6 Stratton

#7 Caliche

#8 Prairie

Class 1A Girls should be an exciting race for the top 8 seeds in the regional tournament. I would say the top 4 seeds are almost locked in of course all it takes is one upset. Fleming and Stratton at #5 and #6 also look in very good shape to host a region. Things take a more interesting turn from #7 down to #12. Caliche is at #7 with a .763 and #12 Springfield sits at .704. just a .059 difference between #7 and #12 just shows how close teams are in that range. Winning will be key for teams to hold onto those spots. #8 Prairie is just .007 ahead of #9 Cheraw and .017 ahead over #10 Briggsdale. This will be one of the more exciting races to watch for hosting.

First Four Out

Otis (33), Elbert (34), Moffat (35), Sangre De Cristo (36)

The bubble in Class 1A is very small. Cheyenne Wells, who is at #29 sits at .425 and Miami-Yoder, who is at #32 sits at .406. The drop from #32 to #33 is quite big. Miami-Yoder is .038 ahead of #33 Otis and .046 ahead of #34 Elbert. I do think Miami-Yoder could get caught by Otis or Elbert but winning will be crucial. Otis has a huge game against Peetz who is at #27 and that could be for Otis shot to just into the top 32.

Bracket- League matchups will be avoided in the first round only. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will not be re-seeded! And play a consolation bracket!

Region 1

*#1 McClave vs #32 Miami-Yoder

#16 Granada vs #17 Denver Jewish Day

Region 2

*#8 Prairie vs #25 Primero

#9 Cheraw vs #24 Mile High Academy

Region 3

*#5 Fleming vs #28 Deer Trail

#12 Springfield vs #21 Cotopaxi

Region 4

*#4 Nucla vs #29 Cheyenne Wells

#13 Flagler vs #20 Kit Carson

Region 5

*#2 Eads vs #31 South Baca

#15 Kim/Branson vs #18 Genoa-Hugo

Region 6

*#7 Caliche vs #26 Lone Star

#10 Briggsdale vs #23 Hi-Plains

Region 7

*#6 Stratton vs #27 Peetz

#11 Idalia vs #22 Weldon Valley

Region 8

*#3 Evangelical Christian vs #30 De Beque

#14 Flatirons Academy vs #19 Kit Carson

*= Regional Host

Note: You can move teams for geography considerations & to avoid league/district matchups in the first round! Remember 17-32 can be moved 2 spots at max.

My State Qualifier Picks

Here are the 8 teams I think will make it to the Elite 8 based off the projections on 2/11.