Boys Basketball Class 3A District Prediction and Regional Projections Week 8
I have decided to change how I am doing my articles for Class 3A Boys & Girls. Instead of doing a weekly preview I am going to run thru each District and talk about which teams are still in the playoff hunt which are eliminated and my pick to who wins each District, (Will also rank the top 4 teams in each Distrct). I will start doing this in Class 1A & 2A next week in the Projection articles as well. After the District Predictions I will do a Regional Projection using the latest CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index.
1. Faith Christian
3. Prospect Ridge
4. Stargate School
This is one of the toughest districts in Class 3A. 5 teams sit inside the top 24 of the Seeding Index. Only 2 of the 7 teams are eliminated from playoff contention and that is William Smith and Lotus School. Any team can move out of elimination status but need a few big wins to get back into the hunt. Faith Christian is my pick to win the district. Faith Christian is considered by most the favorite to win Class 3A. They will be battle tested in this district with Yuma, Prospect Ridge, and Stargate School all being ranked in the top 10. I would say Faith Christian, Yuma, and Prospect Ridge are all very close to locking things up but I won’t start doing that till next week.
Playoff Contenders: Faith Christian, Yuma, Prospect Ridge Stargate School, Manual
Eliminated: William Smith, Lotus School
1. Lake County
3. Bruce Randolph
4. Platte Canyon
We go from one of the toughest District to one of the weakest districts in Class 3A. If regionals started today just 2 teams would get in from this District. Right now, this District is a two-horse race between Lake County and Pinnacle. Bruce Randolph also looks like they can be in the mix especially with their top two scorers. I am going with Lake County to win this district. Platte Canyon is also left as being in the mix, but they need to start winning games and see their Seeding Index improve. KIPP Collegiate, Bennett, and Sheridan are all eliminated from the playoffs.
Playoff Contenders: Lake County, Pinnacle, Bruce Randolph, Platte Canyon
Eliminated: KIPP Collegiate, Bennett, Sheridan
Not the strongest District in Class 3A but well balanced with all 5 teams in the mix for regionals. Centauri is my pick to win the district and so far, they have dominated the 3A teams in their league. Centauri does have a loss to 4A Alamosa and 4A Salida. Bayfield and Montezuma-Cortez will be challengers to Centauri, and both are in position to reach the regional tournament. Both are on the Bubble currently. Ignacio and Crested Butte would be the 1st and 2nd teams out of regionals. Both have struggled at times this year, but a run could easily get them back into the top 32. As always, a big weekend of games upcoming.
Playoff Contenders: Centauri, Bayfield, Montezuma-Cortez, Ignacio, Crested Butte
Black Forest/Santa Fe
2. Thomas MacLaren
3. Fountain Valley
4. Rocky Ford
The smallest district in Class 3A that features just 4 teams. Currently Peyton is my pick to win the district and they will hope to see their Seeding Index improve inside the top 16 so they can host. Peyton will be the favorite in this District. Thomas MacLaren is the only true challenger I see to Peyton. Thomas MacLaren is sitting at #30 in the seeding index and are square on the bubble. Fountain Valley is in the mix for Regionals but sit outside the top 32 at #40. Fountain Valley is going to need a quality win or two to try and jump into the top 32. Only one team is eliminated in this district and that is Rocky Ford.
Playoff Contenders: Peyton, Thomas MacLaren, Fountain Valley
Eliminated: Rocky Ford
2. Platte Valley
Traditionally one of the toughest District in Class 3A and that does not really change this year. Highland is my pick to win the district and they defeated Platte Valley to separate themselves from the pack. Highland is in good position for a top 4 seed at Regionals. Platte Valley and Brush will be the main contenders, and both sit inside the top 15 of the Seeding Index. Both will get another shot at Highland during the District Tournament. Strasburg and Estes Park are two other regional contenders. Strasburg sits at #28 in the seeding index and Estes Park sits at #32. Both are on the bubble and winning will be the best for both teams. Frontier Academy (39) is still in the mix for regional but are going to need a run at some point to make a run for the Top 32. Timnath, Liberty Common and Wellington are both eliminated from playoff contention
Playoff Contenders: Highland, Platte Valley, Brush, Strasburg, Estes Park, Frontier Academy
Eliminated: Liberty Common, Wellington, Timnath
4. C.S Christian
The toughest District in Class 3A is the Tri-Peaks District. This is a loaded district with 10 of the 11 teams in the hunt for a regional berth and 7 teams sitting in the top 20 of the Seeding Index. Two teams have separated themselves a bit from the pack with Salida and Vanguard being the two favorites in the district. Salida is my pick to win the district. Salida has just 1 loss to 4A Pagosa Springs. Vanguard will be the main challenger and still are undefeated. C.S Christian, Ellicott, Rye, Banning Lewis, and Woodland Park are all the next tier of teams and could challenge the top 2 teams in the district. The 5 teams mentioned all sit inside the top 24 of the seeding Index and are looking for that signature upset to lock themselves into a regional spot. I am not locking anyone into regionals just yet. Florence and St. Mary’s are also inside the top 32 of the Seeding Index. Florence sits at #28 and St. Mary’s is #29. Both are on the bubble and will need some wins down the stretch to help get into regionals. Buena Vista is the final team in the regional hunt. Buena Vista sits at #35 in the seeding index and may need an upset or two to get to regionals. Atlas Prep is the only team eliminated from playoff contention.
Playoff Contenders: Salida, Vanguard, C.S Christian, Ellicott, Rye, Woodland Park Banning Lewis, Florence, St. Mary’s, Buena Vista
Eliminated: Atlas Prep
3A Western Slope
1. Roaring Fork
4. North Fork
The Western Slope League always produces a surprise team or two and they will look to continue that this year. I believe two teams have risen to the top and that is Roaring Fork and Cedaredge. Roaring Fork is my pick to win the District and I give them the edge because of their win over Cedaredge a few weeks ago. They will face Cedaredge again in February. Cedaredge is in good position to reach regionals regardless as they sit at #12 in the seeding index. They will hope to get revenge on Roaring Fork. Meeker is another team in the top 32 and in the hunt for regionals. Meeker sits at #26 in the Seeding Index and they are on the bubble. I think Meeker can get into regionals as long as they avoid being upset by teams below them in district. North Fork, Gunnison, and Grand Valley are all barely holding onto regional hopes. Gunnison sits at #37, North Fork is #42, and Grand Valley is #43. If those teams don’t start moving up, they will start being eliminated from the regional hunt. Olathe is eliminated from the playoffs.
Playoff Contenders: Cedaredge, Roaring Fork, Meeker, North Fork, Gunnison, Grand Valley
1. Windsor Charter
3. SkyView Academy
The Mile High/Foothills District has been puzzling so far to me. Windsor Charter sits atop the league standings, and they must be the favorite with their head-to-head win over Machebeuf and Lyons. Windsor Charter outside of those wins really lacks a big quality win and just are a mystery. Machebeuf will hope for revenge in the district tournament, and I believe are the main challengers. SkyView Academy will be in the mix for a regional berth they sit at #22 in the Seeding Index and are on the bubble. Lyons (38) is also still n the mix for a regional berth but need to start grabbing some wins the same goes with Clear Creek (44). Dawson School is eliminated from playoff contention.
Playoff Contenders: Windsor Charter, Machebeuf, SkyView Academy, Lyons, Clear Creek
Eliminated: Dawson School
Boys Basketball Class 3A Regional Projections and State Predictions
For my projections I am using the CHSAA Seeding and Selection Index. The District Champions are picked from the District Predictions above. If you are a District Champion ranked in the top 16 of the Seeding Index you will automatically host a regional. Remember to qualify for Regionals you must be ranked inside the top 32 or win your District.
- District Seeding will be done by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index (50% Maxpreps & 50% RPI). Maxpreps and RPI will run through Districts.
- District Winners (8) advancing to the 32-team state bracket. District Champions are guaranteed a top 8 (host slot) as long as they are in the top 16 of the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index after Districts.
- Remaining 24 teams are filled in by the CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts.
- Seeding criteria for the 32-team state bracket-CHSAA Seeding & Selection Index published after Districts. Seed 9-24 are true seeded except to try and avoid league matchups in the FIRST ROUND ONLY. Teams may be moved one spot up or down. Teams 25-32 may be moved based upon geography and league matchups.
- First two rounds of the state tournament (Regionals) will be hosted by the top seed in the quadrant of the bracket, over two days. (4-teams total)
- Teams will not be reseeded prior to the final week-state championship (Final 8)
- Top 8 teams will advance. Class 2A Great 8 will play a Consolation Bracket.
District Tournament Winners
Metro/Confluence/Lower Platte: Faith Christian
Frontier: Lake County
Black Forest/Santa Fe: Peyton
Western Slope: Roaring Fork
Mile High/Foothills: Windsor Charter
District Champions and Regional Hosts: ()=Seeding Index
Metro/Confluence/Lower Platte: Faith Christian (1)
Frontier: Lake County (20) (Will not Host)
Intermountain/SPL: Centauri (4)
Black Forest/Santa Fe: Peyton (16)
Patriot: Highland (3)
Tri-Peaks: Salida (2)
Western Slope: Roaring Fork (18) (Will not host)
Mile High/Foothills: Windsor Charter (9)
At-Large Host: Vanguard (5)
At-Large Host: Yuma (6)
Bracket- District matchups will be avoided in the first round. 8 Regional winners qualifying for state. State will not be re-seeded! And play a Modified Consolation Bracket, if you lose Thursday you will not play Friday!
|*#1 Faith Christian vs #32 Estes Park|
|#16 Rye vs #17 Roaring Fork|
|*#8 Peyton vs #25 Montezuma-Cortez|
|#9 Platte Valley vs #24 Bayfield|
|*#5 Vanguard vs #28 Florence|
|#12 Stargate School vs #21 Manual|
|*#4 Centauri vs #29 St. Mary’s|
|#13 Cedaredge vs #20 Lake County|
|*#2 Salida vs #31 Pinnacle|
|#15 Brush vs #18 Woodland Park|
|*#7 Windsor Charter vs #26 Meeker|
|#10 Prospect Ridge vs #23 Machebeuf|
|*#6 Yuma vs #27 Strasburg|
|#11 C.S Christian vs #22 SkyView Academy|
|*#3 Highland vs #30 Thomas MacLaren|
|#14 Ellicott vs #19 Banning Lewis|
*= Regional Host
My State Qualifier Picks
Here are the 8 teams I think make it to the Elite 8 and the matchups. This will change as the bracket changes. This is still early.
#1 Faith Christian vs #9 Platte Valley
#4 Centauri vs #5 Vanguard
#2 Salida vs #10 Prospect Ridge
#3 Highland vs #6 Yuma